If (big if) the bulls are going to have any success in rallying Oil, it has to start today and from today's already-made low.
In my chart evaluation that I made this weekend, I did state there was pivotal intraweek support at 77.56 that was expected to be seen but not broken. That support was seen "and broken" this morning as the low early this morning has been 77.22.
Nonetheless, the break of that support did NOT generate follow through as Oil rallied back to 78.85 immediately thereafter, suggesting that the idea was to go and trigger the stop losses more so than a true break of support (normal thing traders do often).
The break of an intraweek support, especially by a small amount, is not all that meaningful unless follow through occurs. I did not. By the same token, a new low below 77.22 would now be seen as follow through and therefore meaningful.
As such, if the bulls have any plans to rally Oil, it will start today and from this low!
At this time, a rally above 78.85 will begin to make it so, and a rally above 79.95 would be the first confirmation that the recovery has begun.