Yes and no.

 

Some people are born as brilliant salesmen. They are smooth talkers and can sell anything to anybody. As we used to say, they can sell air to those who died.

 

I have lost a lot of money in the past by following those smooth talkers presenting their excellent cases why we should buy some specific stock now, or double down, or go all in. Not just in oil - in Molybdenum, Precious Metals, and Pharma.

There were plenty of small gems heavily promoted here and there by board elders. You would be chased, castrated, and crusified if you disagreed - even after heavy losses in share price. (I lost posting privileges for questioning the board 'guru') 

 

If we assume that the market knows more than us then we should watch what the market does especially during the non-panic days. Market is not 'all bean counters', or 'paper pushers', and we, as individual investors, are always the last ones to know the news.

 

I simply tell myself that I can't own everything, and if I wanted to I would have to buy a passive mutual fund tracking some index.