Energy Investing - Daily Gas Flows (Part 4- Evaluation) - Energy Investing - InvestorVillage


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Msg  441783 of 452468  at  8/17/2022 2:30:37 AM  by

robry825


Daily Gas Flows (Part 4- Evaluation)

==============Daily Model Baseline Score================
..................(Demand in excess of supply, BCF/Day)
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri__Total
06/10/22......4.5......1.7.....-0.8....-0.4......4.3......0.2......1.5....11.0
06/17/22......0.1.....-3.5....-7.6.....-6.0.....-0.7.....-2.2......0.6..-19.3
06/24/22......4.2......0.4.....-3.7....-4.2......0.7......0.7.....-0.7.....-2.6
07/01/22......2.7......1.4......1.2......2.6......0.6......3.0......3.1....14.6
07/08/22......3.0......0.1.....-1.7....-3.2......2.9......2.1......2.5......5.7
07/15/22......2.4......0.6.....-0.7......0.3......7.5......5.9......5.4....21.4
07/22/22......5.2......2.4......0.7.....-1.0......1.6....-3.1......1.3......7.1
07/29/22.....-3.4....-6.6.....-4.5.....-0.3......3.0.....-2.2......0.4..-13.6
08/05/22.....-0.5....-1.5.....-2.5.....-1.7......0.0.....-1.7....-0.6.....-8.5
08/12/22.....-1.2....-3.4.....-3.6.....-0.4......7.9......6.4......6.2....11.9
08/19/22......3.0.....-0.3....-1.4..................................................1.3i



===========Physicals Daily Model Baseline Score============
..................(Demand in excess of supply, BCF/Day)
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri__Total
06/10/22......2.9......0.4.....-0.9......0.1......4.8......0.5......1.7......9.5
06/17/22......0.9.....-1.2....-1.7......1.7......7.1......5.4......7.1....19.3
06/24/22......7.1.....-0.3....-3.8.....-1.7......3.9......2.2......0.5......7.9
07/01/22......4.5......3.1......0.9......0.6.....-0.8......3.4......6.3....18.0
07/08/22......7.2......2.9......0.5......0.5......7.1......4.5......4.5....27.2
07/15/22......4.0......1.7......0.9......3.1....10.5......7.9......5.7....33.8
07/22/22......5.1......2.6......1.9......2.9......8.9......4.9......8.5....34.8
07/29/22......4.9......2.0......0.3.....-0.7......2.4....-0.7......1.5......9.7
08/05/22.....-0.9....-2.1.....-2.7......0.1......4.3......3.2......4.2......6.1
08/12/22......4.3......3.2......3.2......5.6....11.0......6.6......4.8....38.7
08/19/22......0.7.....-2.7....-3.3.................................................-5.3i



================Fair-Value Model=================
.................----10 Week Average-----
__Date__BL.Score_H.Hub_Oil/Gas________Signal_________
07/16/22......1.01......7.47.....14.87......Fair-Value Much > 7.47
07/17/22......1.08......7.44.....14.90......Fair-Value Much > 7.44
07/18/22......1.14......7.44.....14.92......Fair-Value Much > 7.44
07/19/22......1.13......7.45.....14.90......Fair-Value Much > 7.45
07/20/22......1.13......7.45.....14.90......Fair-Value Much > 7.45
07/21/22......1.09......7.46.....14.87......Fair-Value Much > 7.46
07/22/22......1.10......7.47.....14.82......Fair-Value Much > 7.47
07/23/22......1.02......7.48.....14.78......Fair-Value Much > 7.48
07/24/22......0.88......7.48.....14.74......Fair-Value Much > 7.48
07/25/22......0.80......7.49.....14.70......Fair-Value Much > 7.49
07/26/22......0.76......7.51.....14.64......Fair-Value Much > 7.51
07/27/22......0.74......7.51.....14.62......Fair-Value Much > 7.51
07/28/22......0.70......7.52.....14.58......Fair-Value Much > 7.52
07/29/22......0.68......7.52.....14.55......Fair-Value Much > 7.52
07/30/22......0.64......7.53.....14.52......Fair-Value Much > 7.53
07/31/22......0.57......7.53.....14.48......Fair-Value Much > 7.53
08/01/22......0.49......7.53.....14.46......Fair-Value Much > 7.53
08/02/22......0.45......7.52.....14.45......Fair-Value Much > 7.52
08/03/22......0.39......7.50.....14.45......Fair-Value Much > 7.50
08/04/22......0.35......7.49.....14.42......Fair-Value Much > 7.49
08/05/22......0.26......7.49.....14.38......Fair-Value > 7.49
08/06/22......0.21......7.49.....14.34......Fair-Value > 7.49
08/07/22......0.16......7.49.....14.30......Fair-Value > 7.49
08/08/22......0.15......7.48.....14.27......Fair-Value > 7.48
08/09/22......0.19......7.47.....14.24......Fair-Value > 7.47
08/10/22......0.28......7.46.....14.21......Fair-Value > 7.46
08/11/22......0.34......7.46.....14.18......Fair-Value > 7.46
08/12/22......0.40......7.46.....14.12......Fair-Value Much > 7.46
08/13/22......0.38r.....7.47.....14.05......Fair-Value Much > 7.47
08/14/22......0.35r.....7.48.....13.98......Fair-Value Much > 7.48
08/15/22......0.34......7.48.....13.93......Fair-Value Much > 7.48



..........Contemporary Fair Value Crossings
...........(Fair-Value-Based Natgas Pricing)
..................--10 Week Average--
____Date____H.Hub__Oil/Gas___Comments__
.....12/16/17......2.90......19.07.....(on 55.23 oil)
.....12/20/17......2.88......19.29.....(on 55.65 oil)
.....12/25/17......2.86......19.63.....(on 56.14 oil)
.....01/18/18......3.16......18.63.....(on 58.95 oil)...(Anomalous on freeze-offs)
.....04/03/18......2.75......22.92.....(on 63.03 oil)
.....04/11/18......2.66......23.58.....(on 62.78 oil)
.....05/02/18......2.70......23.91.....(on 64.45 oil)
.....05/23/18......2.72......24.64.....(on 67.27 oil)
.....06/09/18......2.78......24.35.....(on 67.77 oil)
.....06/12/18......2.79......24.31.....(on 67.87 oil)
.....06/19/18......2.83......24.10.....(on 68.14 oil)
.....06/21/18......2.82......24.10.....(on 68.09 oil)
.....07/27/18......2.86......24.24.....(on 69.40 oil)
.....10/03/18......2.94......23.63.....(on 69.43 oil)
.....02/04/20......2.09......27.87.....(on 58.34 oil)
.....04/13/20......1.77......20.47.....(on 36.33 oil)...(Anomalous on COVID-19 shutdowns)
.....08/24/20......1.82......22.33.....(on 40.77 oil)...(Anomalous on COVID-19 shutdowns)
.....08/29/20......1.90......21.62.....(on 41.05 oil)...(Anomalous on COVID-19 shutdowns)
.....09/27/20......2.03......20.21.....(on 40.97 oil)...(Anomalous on COVID-19 shutdowns)
.....01/18/21......2.57......18.25.....(on 46.84 oil)
.....01/23/21......2.54......18.77.....(on 47.70 oil)
.....05/14/21......2.63......23.85.....(on 62.68 oil)
.....12/31/21......4.49......16.91.....(on 75.93 oil)...(These 8 crossings,
.....01/01/22......4.47......16.97.....(on 75.66 oil)....while negated on
.....01/03/22......4.42......17.10.....(on 75.54 oil)....04/06/22, are to be
.....02/04/22......4.16......18.59.....(on 77.41 oil)....assumed only a
.....02/13/22......4.16......19.35.....(on 80.56 oil)....few cents off from
.....02/19/22......4.22......19.49.....(on 82.38 oil)....what fair-value likely
.....02/23/22......4.27......19.56.....(on 83.56 oil)....was for each of
.....03/07/22......4.44......20.06.....(on 89.04 oil)....the crossing dates)
.....04/20/22......5.17......19.73.....(on 102.48 oil)
.....05/05/22......5.75......18.18.....(on 104.98 oil)
.....05/09/22......5.96......17.67.....(on 105.85 oil)
.....05/19/22......6.43......16.38.....(on 105.34 oil)
.....05/30/22......6.97......15.34.....(on 106.70 oil)
.....06/05/22......7.24......14.78.....(on 106.91 oil)
.....06/16/22......7.72......14.20.....(on 106.91 oil)
.....06/18/22......7.76......14.15.....(on 106.91 oil)
.....06/23/22......7.78......14.20.....(on 110.67 oil)



..............Historical Fair Value Crossings
.............(Storage-Based Natgas Pricing)
..................--10 Week Average--
____Date____H.Hub__Oil/Gas___Comments__
.....01/03/02......2.38........8.31.....(on $19.75 oil)
.....06/23/02......3.38........7.79.....(on 26.33 oil)
.....07/30/02......3.13........8.38.....(on 26.26 oil)
.....03/11/03......6.54........5.31.....(on 34.76 oil)
.....03/26/04......5.49........6.46.....(on 35.46 oil)
.....05/24/04......5.81........6.52.....(on 37.83 oil)
.....02/25/05......6.28........7.41.....(on 46.51 oil)
.....07/16/06......6.07......11.80.....(on 71.68 oil)
.....10/13/06......5.65......11.81.....(on 66.65 oil)
.....08/16/07......6.61......10.86.....(on 71.87 oil)
.....04/14/08......9.17......11.16.....(on 102.34 oil)
.....09/11/09......3.08......21.99.....(on 67.82 oil)
.....01/31/10......5.32......14.35.....(on 76.37 oil)
.....02/08/12......2.87......34.54.....(on 99.09 oil)
.....06/09/13......4.08......22.89.....(on 93.38 oil)
.....10/09/13......3.52......30.18.....(on 106.20 oil)
.....10/23/13......3.60......29.26.....(on 105.24 oil)
.....12/09/13......3.69......26.31.....(on 97.19 oil)
.....04/15/14......5.13......19.73.....(on 101.28 oil)
.....11/26/15......2.27......19.69.....(on 44.73 oil)
.....03/04/15......2.08......15.42.....(on 32.01 oil)
.....03/23/15......1.92......17.11.....(on 32.90 oil)


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