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Msg  441782 of 452460  at  8/17/2022 2:30:35 AM  by

robry825


Daily Gas Flows (Part 3- LT Model)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


==========US Longer-Term Model============
......2022 Spring.....1382 BCF*....Fall..3407 BCF
......2023 Spring.......931 BCF.....Fall..3261 BCF
......2024 Spring.......757 BCF.....Fall..3118 BCF
......2025 Spring.......586 BCF.....Fall..2971 BCF
......*=Actuals for weeks ended 04/01/22



____Run____S-18_F-18____Run____F-18_S-19____Run____S-19_F-19____Run____F-19_S-20____Run____S-20_F-20____Run____F-20_S-21____Run____S-21_F-21____Run____F-21_S-22____Run____S-22_F-22____Run____F-22_S-23
11/22/17....1230..3117....05/08/18....3467..1122........n/a...............................04/11/19....3784..1694....11/27/19....1758..4791....04/17/20....4150..1608....11/27/20....1176....2795....04/13/21....4414....2107....11/24/21....1113....3315....04/17/22....3745....1300
11/28/17....1192..3020....05/16/18....3492..1155....11/28/18......960..3582....04/18/19....3858..1775....12/05/19....1775..4819....04/23/20....4353..1947....12/04/20....1295....3001....04/22/21....4280....1895....12/02/21....1117....3334....04/21/22....3731....1286
12/05/17....1369..3337....05/23/18....3475..1122........n/a...............................04/25/19....3852..1742....12/12/19....1769..4819....04/30/20....4539..2259....12/10/20....1291....2978....04/28/21....4094....1616....12/09/21....1111....3279....04/29/22....3821....1447
12/13/17....1498..3616....05/30/18....3417..1020....11/28/18....1112..4012....05/02/19....3995..1953....12/19/19....1751..4754....05/07/20....4692..2493....12/17/20....1341....3061....05/06/21....4212....1825....12/16/21....1149....3302....05/05/22....3827....1454
12/19/17....1474..3622....06/06/18....3401....992....12/20/18....1142..4144....05/10/19....4054..2053....12/27/19....1677..4604....05/14/20....4845..2746....12/24/20....1379....3157....05/13/21....4078....1598....12/23/21....1279....3493....05/12/22....3768....1359
12/27/17....1527..3711....06/13/18....3385....969....12/29/18....1231..4274....05/16/19....4109..2139....01/03/20....1721..4597....05/21/20....4891..2839....12/31/20....1485....3372....05/21/21....3870....1230....12/30/21....1299....3501....05/19/22....3823....1458
01/03/18....1461..3682....06/20/18....3359....932....01/05/19....1354..4421....05/25/19....4131..2185....01/09/20....1786..4606....05/28/20....4910..2871....01/05/21....1561....3549....05/27/21....3919....1311....01/06/22....1462....3763....05/26/22....3737....1322
01/09/18....1236..3378....06/27/18....3355....946....01/10/19....1378..4405....05/30/19....4162..2239....01/17/20....1927..4698....06/04/20....4890..2860....01/15/21....1642....3726....06/03/21....3828....1137....01/13/22....1468....3793....06/02/22....3712....1295
01/16/18....1214..3324....07/04/18....3413..1061....01/17/19....1462..4531....06/08/19....4168..2261....01/23/20....1895..4614....06/11/20....4890..2878....01/19/21....1676....3775....06/11/21....3840....1159....01/20/22....1457....3781....06/09/22....3681....1249
01/23/18....1119..3196....07/11/18....3351....997....01/24/19....1466..4532....06/14/19....4097..2141....01/30/20....1831..4415....06/18/20....4835..2806....01/28/21....1748....3938....06/17/21....3749....1054....01/27/22....1451....3800....06/16/22....3640....1178
01/30/18....1172..3164....07/18/18....3304....920....01/31/19....1486..4698....06/20/19....4065..2083....02/06/20....1837..4283....06/25/20....4837..2805....02/04/21....1767....3995....06/23/21....3720....1016....02/03/22....1370....3678....06/23/22....3660....1237
02/06/18....1264..3301....07/25/18....3208....765....02/07/19....1403..4607....06/27/19....3982..1934....02/13/20....1860..4157....07/02/20....4674..2532....02/12/21....1785....4014....07/01/21....3696......984....02/10/22....1333....3617....06/30/22....3630....1189
02/14/18....1239..3231....08/02/18....3208....775....02/14/19....1472..4702....07/04/19....3964..1904....02/20/20....1826..3981....07/09/20....4542..2308....02/18/21....1735....4077....07/08/21....3578......804....02/17/22....1312....3589....07/07/22....3546....1042
02/21/18....1245..3158....08/08/18....3191....749....02/21/19....1384..4461....07/11/19....3898..1805....02/27/20....1769..3728....07/16/20....4413..2088....02/25/21....1508....3720....07/15/21....3526......720....02/24/22....1334....3640....07/14/22....3481......934
02/28/18....1282..3127....08/15/18....3177....741....02/28/19....1301..4272....07/18/19....3831..1696....03/05/20....1776..3703....07/24/20....4308..1901....03/04/21....1548....3980....07/22/21....3505......687....03/03/22....1322....3678....07/21/22....3431......860
03/07/18....1342..3177....08/22/18....3141....661....03/07/19....1231..4126....07/25/19....3779..1634....03/12/20....1841..3772....07/30/20....4240..1784....03/12/21....1616....4080....07/29/21....3461......592....03/10/22....1307....3659....07/28/22....3378......786
03/14/18....1355..3181....08/28/18....3134....624....03/14/19....1087..3809....08/01/19....3797..1677....03/19/20....1918..3784....08/06/20....4219..1770....03/18/21....1699....4252....08/06/21....3379......428....03/17/22....1322....3574....08/04/22....3425......906
03/21/18....1362..3315....09/05/18....3158....708....03/21/19....1107..3766....08/08/19....3758..1606....03/26/20....1954..3789....08/13/20....4241..1819....03/26/21....1725....4377....08/12/21....3372......381....03/24/22....1340....3556....08/11/22....3464....1007
03/28/18....1356..3352....09/13/18....3155....724....03/28/19....1098..3729....08/15/19....3722..1542....04/02/20....1973..3780....08/20/20....4203..1760....04/02/21....1764....4478....08/19/21....3388......417....03/31/22....1389....3649....08/16/22....3407......931
04/04/18....1356..3483....09/20/18....3144....683....04/04/19....1107..3788....08/23/19....3708..1528....04/09/20....1986..3943....08/27/20....4170..1699....04/08/21....1750....4437....08/27/21....3354......332....04/07/22....1382....3633
04/10/18....1339..3493....09/25/18....3107....642............................................08/29/19....3709..1553............................................09/03/20....4111..1600..............................................09/02/21....3334......327
04/18/18....1309..3396....10/03/18....3143....736............................................09/05/19....3719..1591............................................09/10/20....4133..1683..............................................09/09/21....3355......402
04/25/18....1285..3303....10/10/18......n/a......n/a............................................09/12/19....3689..1540............................................09/16/20....4133..1712..............................................09/16/21....3409......574
05/02/18....1281..3348....10/17/18....3199....898............................................09/19/19....3682..1541............................................09/24/20....4111..1668..............................................09/22/21....3440......682
........................................10/24/18....3194....925............................................09/26/19....3708..1614............................................10/01/20....4099..1641..............................................09/30/21....3476......780
........................................10/31/18....3188....980............................................10/03/19....3731..1667............................................10/08/20....4080..1575..............................................10/07/21....3538......926
........................................11/07/18....3209..1017............................................10/10/19....3736..1688............................................10/15/20....4039..1463..............................................10/14/21....3554......969
........................................11/13/18....3222..1034............................................10/17/19....3756..1738............................................10/22/20....4013..1367..............................................10/21/21....3580....1022
........................................................................................................................10/24/19....3764..1787............................................10/30/20....3990..1310..............................................10/28/21....3611....1023
........................................................................................................................10/31/19....3786..1830............................................11/05/20....3955..1185..............................................11/05/21....3630....1085
........................................................................................................................11/06/19....3755..1757............................................11/12/20....3955..1151..............................................11/10/21....3618....1098
........................................................................................................................11/14/19....3734..1801............................................11/20/20....3958..1152..............................................11/18/21....3644....1089
........................................................................................................................11/21/19....3732..1756



....Longer-Term Model Storage Projections...
...Week.........Normal.......Projected Storage
_Ending____D-Days__Change___Inventory
08/05/22.........73.4........44 BCF.....2501 BCF
08/12/22.........72.5........14 BCF.....2515 BCF
08/19/22.........71.2........66 BCF.....2581 BCF
08/26/22.........69.5........69 BCF.....2650 BCF
09/02/22.........66.9........77 BCF.....2727 BCF
09/09/22.........64.5........93 BCF.....2820 BCF
09/16/22.........62.6........89 BCF.....2909 BCF
09/23/22.........62.4........90 BCF.....2999 BCF
09/30/22.........63.8........92 BCF.....3091 BCF
10/07/22.........66.7........85 BCF.....3176 BCF
10/14/22.........70.8........80 BCF.....3256 BCF
10/21/22.........78.1........64 BCF.....3320 BCF
10/28/22.........85.8........55 BCF.....3375 BCF
11/04/22.........96.2........30 BCF.....3405 BCF
11/11/22.......107.8..........2 BCF.....3407 BCF

11/18/22.......121.0.......-24 BCF.....3382 BCF
11/25/22.......134.1.......-44 BCF.....3336 BCF
12/02/22.......145.3.......-69 BCF.....3266 BCF
12/09/22.......158.2.....-113 BCF.....3152 BCF
12/16/22.......170.7.....-149 BCF.....3001 BCF
12/23/22.......182.9.....-158 BCF.....2842 BCF
12/30/22.......189.0.....-148 BCF.....2693 BCF
01/06/23.......191.5.....-168 BCF.....2524 BCF
01/13/23.......192.9.....-194 BCF.....2329 BCF
01/20/23.......197.4.....-208 BCF.....2120 BCF
01/27/23.......199.2.....-199 BCF.....1920 BCF
02/03/23.......195.5.....-193 BCF.....1726 BCF
02/10/23.......186.2.....-175 BCF.....1551 BCF
02/17/23.......174.7.....-148 BCF.....1401 BCF
02/24/23.......166.2.....-126 BCF.....1275 BCF
03/03/23.......160.1.....-111 BCF.....1162 BCF
03/10/23.......154.0.....-102 BCF.....1059 BCF
03/17/23.......142.9.......-74 BCF.......984 BCF
03/24/23.......129.1.......-40 BCF.......942 BCF
03/31/23.......117.2.......-11 BCF.......931 BCF

04/07/23.......107.0........12 BCF.......942 BCF
04/14/23.........97.4........30 BCF.......973 BCF
04/21/23.........89.1........53 BCF.....1026 BCF
04/28/23.........81.2........70 BCF.....1096 BCF
Note- US Longer-Term Model projections are not "Predictions", but are extrapolations carried
forward (based upon the previous 10 weeks estimated supply/demand balance & energy pricing)
to either a reasonable or unreasonable conclusion. As this model is intended for the long-term,
MMS/hurricane curtailments are projected on a fully-restored basis.


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