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Msg  441780 of 452456  at  8/17/2022 2:30:33 AM  by

robry825


Daily Gas Flows (Part 1- US Storage)

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(Best viewed at 14 pixel "Font Size", "Fixed Width" as set from the "My IV" Link)
(See post 428 for footnotes & explanations of the various models)

=========================US Gas Flow Models (US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9AM)==========================
...Week.....------------------Composite.Model-----------------------------...Capacity....EIA.........EIA......Baseline.......------EIA------.....Capacity.Model
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri___Total___Model__ Model__Actual__(Neutral)___YOY__YO5YA__YOY__YO5YA
05/13/22....12.3....12.8....14.5....12.4....12.2....12.3....12.6......89.0..........83..........89..........89............85..............-352......-307.......-443.......-340
05/20/22....13.9....13.6....14.1....11.6....11.7....11.2....10.9......87.0..........89..........87..........87..........102..............-378......-319.......-440.......-336
05/27/22......9.7....10.7....11.6....12.2....13.0....13.3....11.5......82.0..........90..........83..........82..........103..............-397......-338.......-441.......-343
06/03/22....16.3....17.3....17.6....15.2....11.7....11.6....12.4....102.0..........95..........98........102..........104..............-392......-337.......-438.......-345
06/10/22....12.9....15.8....15.5....12.8....11.6....12.1....11.3......92.0..........95..........96..........92..........103..............-372......-333.......-410.......-337
06/17/22....13.8....16.1....15.0......9.6......7.6......6.4......5.5......74.0..........72..........68..........74............55..............-304......-333.......-404.......-348
06/24/22......7.7....15.9....17.6....13.7......9.7......7.7......9.8......82.0..........85..........76..........82............79..............-292......-323.......-392.......-339
07/01/22......7.3......9.0....10.3......8.6....13.8......6.5......4.4......60.0..........71..........65..........60............75..............-262......-324.......-358.......-335
07/08/22......5.8....10.8....12.7....11.6......7.2......5.8......4.2......58.0..........56..........50..........58............64..............-253......-322.......-355.......-341
07/15/22......6.0......9.4......8.8......4.9......0.9......0.0......2.0......32.0..........49..........38..........32............53..............-271......-330.......-343.......-341
07/22/22......3.9......6.5......5.2......2.0.....-0.6......0.3....-2.2......15.0..........23..........10..........15............22..............-291.......-344.......-357......-358
07/29/22......3.0......6.2......6.8......6.4......6.9......6.6......5.1......41.0..........53..........41..........41............27..............-270......-340.......-335.......-355
08/05/22......8.8....10.5....10.2......5.3......4.6......2.6......1.9......44.0..........45..........38..........44............36..............-269......-338.......-337.......-362
08/12/22......3.4......5.6......4.2......0.3.....-1.8....-0.2......2.8......14.3..........29..........14..........................26..............-299.......-373.......-352......-386
08/19/22......8.7....12.7....12.0i.....7.8i.....5.6i....-3.6i....-3.7i......39.6i.........49i.........40i.........................41..............-286.......-368.......-337i......-381i



============================= EIA-Weighted Model Track Record =============================
...................................................................................................................................Unresolved Model
.............................................................................................Interpd............................Miss By Region
........................................Capacity...Wkly...Wkly....Model......EIA...........................As of Date Evaluated
................For Week...........Model....Model....EIA......Miss...Monthly.........Date......S.Cent...East....West
....Run........Ending.............(BCF)....(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)...(BCF)......Evaluated..(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)
12/09/20..(12/04/20)............-59..........-69.......-91......+22.......................12/10/20.....15.6.....8.1.....-0.8
12/16/20..(12/11/20)..........-110........-119.....-122........+3
12/23/20..(12/18/20)..........-117........-144.....-152........+8
12/30/20..(12/25/20)............-95........-113.....-114........+1
01/05/21..(01/01/21)..........-111........-122.....-130........+8
01/11/21..(01/08/21)..........-107........-117.....-134......+17
01/19/21..(01/15/21)..........-154........-172.....-187......+15
01/26/21..(01/22/21)..........-105........-121.....-128........+7
02/03/21..(01/29/21)..........-181........-184.....-192........+8
02/10/21..(02/05/21)..........-156........-175.....-171.........-4
02/17/21..(02/12/21)..........-198........-224.....-237......+13
02/24/21..(02/19/21)..........-282........-329.....-338........+9
02/28/21..(02/26/21)..........-123........-109.......-98.......-11
03/10/21..(03/05/21)............-71..........-45.......-52........+7
03/17/21..(03/12/21)............-29............-4.......-11........+7
03/24/21..(03/19/21)............-37..........-17.......-36......+19
03/29/21..(03/26/21).............18............29........14......+15
04/05/21..(04/02/21).............22............28........20........+8
04/13/21..(04/09/21).............49............73........61......+12
04/21/21..(04/16/21).............46............45........38........+7
04/28/21..(04/23/21)...............3..............1........15.......-14
05/05/21..(04/30/21).............58............51........60.........-9
05/12/21..(05/07/21).............68............77........71........+6
05/19/21..(05/14/21).............60............67........71.........-4
05/26/21..(05/21/21).............93..........108......115.........-7
06/01/21..(05/28/21).............94............97........98.........-1
06/09/21..(06/04/21).............98..........100........98........+2
06/16/21..(06/11/21).............58............69........67(K)...+2
06/23/21..(06/18/21).............66............62........55........+7
06/30/21..(06/25/21).............78............74........76.........-2
07/06/21..(07/02/21).............20............26........16......+10
07/13/21..(07/09/21).............58............50........55.........-5
07/21/21..(07/16/21).............37............40........49.........-9
07/28/21..(07/23/21).............40............39........36........+3........................................Unresolved Model
08/04/21..(07/30/21).............26............11........13.........-2.........................................Miss By Region
08/11/21..(08/06/21).............59............42........49.........-7......................................As of Date Evaluated
08/18/21..(08/13/21).............41............31........42(L)...-11.......................Date......S.Cent...East....West
08/25/21..(08/20/21).............34............32........29........+3....................Evaluated..(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)
09/01/21..(08/27/21).............11............13........20.........-7.......................10/08/21......-2.1.....5.8......0.4
09/08/21..(09/03/21).............58............47........52.........-5.......................10/08/21......-1.1.....5.3.....-3.1
09/15/21..(09/10/21).............74............73(S)...83.......-10(S)..................10/08/21.......1.3.....3.5.....-3.0
09/22/21..(09/17/21).............55............53(S)...76.......-23(S)..................10/08/21.......7.9....-1.4.....-1.7
09/29/21..(09/24/21).............81............74(S)...88.......-14(S)..................10/08/21......-2.2....-1.5......1.1
10/06/21..(10/01/21)...........103............99(S).118.......-19(S)..................10/08/21.......0.2.....0.1.....-0.9
10/13/21..(10/08/21).............67............86........81........+5
10/20/21..(10/15/21).............65............84........92.........-6
10/27/21..(10/22/21).............69............81........87.........-6
11/03/21..(10/29/21).............53............66........63........+3
11/10/21..(11/05/21)..............-9..............5..........7.........-2
11/17/21..(11/12/21).............18............22........26.........-4
11/23/21..(11/19/21)............-31...........-30......-21.........-9
12/01/21..(11/26/21)............-69...........-64......-59.........-5
12/08/21..(12/03/21)............-30...........-43......-59......+16
12/15/21..(12/10/21)..........-114...........-99......-88.......-11
12/21/21..(12/17/21)............-49...........-62......-55.........-7
12/29/21..(12/24/21)..........-119.........-141....-136.........-5
01/05/22..(12/31/21)............-46...........-42......-31......+11
01/12/22..(01/07/22)..........-158.........-179....-179............
01/19/22..(01/14/22)..........-175.........-196....-206.......-10
01/26/22..(01/21/22)..........-190.........-214....-219.........-5
02/02/22..(01/28/22)..........-244.........-269....-268........+1
02/09/22..(02/04/22)..........-198.........-230....-222........+8
02/16/22..(02/11/22)..........-172.........-193....-190........+3
02/23/22..(02/18/22)..........-124.........-128....-129.........-1
03/02/22..(02/25/22)..........-142.........-135....-139.........-4

...................................................................................................................................Unresolved Model
.............................................................................................Interpd............................Miss By Region
........................................Capacity...Wkly...Wkly....Model......EIA...........................As of Date Evaluated
................For Week...........Model....Model....EIA......Miss...Monthly.........Date......S.Cent...East....West
....Run........Ending.............(BCF)....(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)...(BCF)......Evaluated..(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)
03/09/22..(03/04/22)..........-113.........-125....-124..........1
03/16/22..(03/11/22)............-82...........-79......-79............
03/23/22..(03/18/22)............-62...........-52......-51..........1
03/30/22..(03/25/22).............17............23........26..........3
04/06/22..(04/01/22)............-48...........-31......-33.........-2
04/14/22..(04/08/22)...............1............24........15.........-9
04/20/22..(04/15/22).............42............51........53........+2
04/27/22..(04/22/22).............28............43........40.........-3
05/04/22..(04/29/22).............69............79........77.........-2
05/11/22..(05/06/22).............75............80........76.........-4
05/18/22..(05/13/22).............82............92........89.........-3
05/25/22..(05/20/22).............89............87........87............
06/02/22..(05/27/22).............90............81........82........+1
06/09/22..(06/03/22).............95............95......102........+7
06/15/22..(06/10/22).............95............92........92............
06/22/22..(06/17/22).............72............59........74......+15.......................06/30/22......-9.4....-2.8.....-3.5
06/29/22..(06/24/22).............85............69........82......+13.......................06/30/22......-3.6....-6.2.....-1.9
07/06/22..(07/01/22).............70............59........60........+1
07/12/22..(07/08/22).............56............45........58......+13
07/20/22..(07/15/22).............49............37........32.........-5
07/27/22..(07/22/22).............24............11........15........+4
08/03/22..(07/29/22).............53............41........41............
08/10/22..(08/05/22).............45............38........44........+6
08/16/22..(08/12/22).............29............14........??...................(Projection for this week's EIA report is complete)
08/16/22..(08/19/22).............49i...........40i.......??...................(Projection for next week's EIA report is very incomplete)

......(K) For purposes of analysis, the EIA's reported "Implied Flow" (67 BCF) is used, rather than the EIA's "Net Change".
......(L) For purposes of analysis, the EIA's reported "Implied Flow" (42 BCF) is used, rather than the EIA's "Net Change".
......(S) An error caused the EIA-weighted model to underreport by 9, 17, 18, and 21 BCF for weeks ending 9/10, 9/17, 9/24 and 10/01.



Weekly Models:
......Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
......Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the
...................................... methodology employed by the EIA, using a 4-year rolling history of the
.......................................EIA's weekly data.

Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from my own Daily & Weekly
..............................models, the EIA's Weekly & Monthly actuals, and the old AGA & Derived EIA
..............................weeklies. Initially, my own model projections (Interpolated by the daily model)
..............................are presented; followed by the EIA weekly actuals (Interpolated by the daily
..............................model), followed by the EIA monthly actuals (Interpolated successively by way
..............................of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered
..............................reclassifications & adjustments removed.

Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report
................(Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary
................hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.



Weekly Models:
......Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
......Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the
...................................... methadology employed by the EIA beginning in 2007.
.......................................(Also called the "2007 Model")

Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from the Daily, 2007 Weekly,
..............................EIA Weekly & Monthly, and the old AGA & Derived EIA weeklies. Initially,
..............................the 2007 model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) are presented
..............................then the EIA weekly Actuals (Interpolated by the daily model), then the EIA
..............................monthly data (Interpolated successively by way of the EIA weekly, then by
..............................the daily model), with implied non-metered reclassifications & adjustments
..............................removed.

Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report
................(Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary
................hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.


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441807 Re: Daily Gas Flows (Part 1- US Storage) Wilk 0 8/17/2022 9:08:06 AM




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