Energy Investing - Daily Gas Flows (Part 4- Evaluation) - Energy Investing - InvestorVillage


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Msg  420615 of 430223  at  5/24/2022 11:08:06 PM  by

robry825


Daily Gas Flows (Part 4- Evaluation)

==============Daily Model Baseline Score================
..................(Demand in excess of supply, BCF/Day)
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri__Total
03/18/22.....-3.3....-5.8.....-1.0......6.3......9.6......4.5......6.1....16.4
03/25/22......3.5......1.3......0.4.....-1.4......0.0....-0.9......0.2......3.1
04/01/22......2.1.....-4.0....-6.5.....-6.1......2.1......2.4......2.7.....-7.3
04/08/22.....-0.4....-2.3.....-3.1.....-0.6......3.9......0.7......2.1......0.3
04/15/22.....-2.7....-5.6.....-4.1.....-0.4......2.5.....-1.2......0.5..-11.0
04/22/22......0.1.....-5.3....-9.5.....-8.4......2.2......1.6......4.5...-14.8
04/29/22......0.0.....-1.8....-3.4.....-4.2......0.6.....-2.1.....-2.6..-13.5
05/06/22......0.9......0.0.....-1.3......0.0......4.9......3.6......3.3....11.4
05/13/22......0.4.....-2.8....-3.9.....-1.2......2.8.....-0.7......1.2.....-4.2
05/20/22......2.9......3.4......1.8......2.5......4.9......1.4......1.9....18.8
05/27/22......4.0......5.3......4.3................................................13.6i



===========Physicals Daily Model Baseline Score============
..................(Demand in excess of supply, BCF/Day)
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri__Total
03/18/22....10.1....10.6......3.5.....-1.2....-2.2.....-8.2.....-6.8......5.8
03/25/22.....-8.0....-8.6...-11.1...-12.1.....-7.0....-5.1.....-3.9...-55.8
04/01/22......0.7......2.7......7.3......8.2......9.0......2.0......3.4....33.3
04/08/22......3.3......1.1.....-0.7....-0.8......1.2.....-0.9......2.5......5.7
04/15/22.....-0.3....-1.9.....-3.6.....-4.2.....-2.1....-2.7......0.2...-14.6
04/22/22......1.0......2.0......2.9......4.0....10.7......3.4......2.4....26.4
04/29/22.....-3.1....-5.2.....-4.5.....-2.1......6.2......5.1......1.9.....-1.7
05/06/22......1.4.....-1.1....-1.1......2.0......6.6......4.2......3.6....15.6
05/13/22......3.2......2.9......0.0......0.0......3.6......0.0......0.5....10.2
05/20/22......0.7......1.0......0.0......1.0......4.6......1.9......3.6....12.8
05/27/22......7.5......6.9......4.5................................................18.9i



================Fair-Value Model=================
.................----10 Week Average-----
__Date__BL.Score_H.Hub_Oil/Gas________Signal________
04/23/22.....-0.13......5.31.....19.38......Fair-Value < 5.31
04/24/22.....-0.10......5.35.....19.27......Fair-Value < 5.35
04/25/22.....-0.05......5.38.....19.16......Fair-Value < 5.38
04/26/22.....-0.03......5.42.....19.06......Fair-Value < 5.42
04/27/22.....-0.07......5.46.....18.95......Fair-Value < 5.46
04/28/22.....-0.12......5.49.....18.88......Fair-Value < 5.49
04/29/22.....-0.15......5.52.....18.81......Fair-Value < 5.52
04/30/22.....-0.16......5.55.....18.73......Fair-Value < 5.55
05/01/22.....-0.12......5.58.....18.66......Fair-Value < 5.58
05/02/22.....-0.13......5.62.....18.57......Fair-Value < 5.62
05/03/22.....-0.12......5.67.....18.43......Fair-Value < 5.67
05/04/22.....-0.08......5.72.....18.30......Fair-Value < 5.72
05/05/22......0.05......5.78.....18.18......Fair-Value = 5.75 ***
05/06/22......0.11......5.83.....18.05......Fair-Value > 5.83
05/07/22......0.10......5.89.....17.93......Fair-Value > 5.89
05/08/22......0.06......5.94.....17.80......Fair-Value > 5.94
05/09/22.....-0.05......5.99.....17.67......Fair-Value = 5.96 ***
05/10/22.....-0.16......6.02.....17.57......Fair-Value < 6.02
05/11/22.....-0.23......6.06.....17.44......Fair-Value < 6.06
05/12/22.....-0.24......6.11.....17.31......Fair-Value < 6.11
05/13/22.....-0.25......6.15.....17.17......Fair-Value < 6.15
05/14/22.....-0.22......6.20.....17.03......Fair-Value < 6.20
05/15/22.....-0.16......6.24.....16.90......Fair-Value < 6.24
05/16/22.....-0.10......6.28.....16.78......Fair-Value < 6.28
05/17/22.....-0.04......6.33.....16.62......Fair-Value < 6.33
05/18/22.....-0.01......6.39.....16.48......Fair-Value < 6.39
05/19/22.....-0.01......6.44.....16.35......Fair-Value < 6.44
05/20/22.....-0.01......6.50.....16.22......Fair-Value = 6.50 ***
05/21/22......0.09r.....6.55.....16.10......Fair-Value > 6.55
05/22/22......0.25......6.60.....15.98......Fair-Value > 6.60
05/23/22......0.33......6.65.....15.87......Fair-Value Much > 6.65
*** Fair-Value crossing generated 04/20/22 at $5.17.
*** Fair-Value crossing generated 05/05/22 at $5.75.
*** Fair-Value crossing generated 05/09/22 at $5.96
*** Fair-Value crossing generated 05/20/22 at $6.50, subject to revisions and EIA actuals.



..........Contemporary Fair Value Crossings
...........(Fair-Value-Based Natgas Pricing)
..................--10 Week Average--
____Date____H.Hub__Oil/Gas___Comments__
.....12/16/17......2.90......19.07.....(on 55.23 oil)
.....12/20/17......2.88......19.29.....(on 55.65 oil)
.....12/25/17......2.86......19.63.....(on 56.14 oil)
.....01/18/18......3.16......18.63.....(on 58.95 oil)...(Anomalous on freeze-offs)
.....04/03/18......2.75......22.92.....(on 63.03 oil)
.....04/11/18......2.66......23.58.....(on 62.78 oil)
.....05/02/18......2.70......23.91.....(on 64.45 oil)
.....05/23/18......2.72......24.64.....(on 67.27 oil)
.....06/09/18......2.78......24.35.....(on 67.77 oil)
.....06/12/18......2.79......24.31.....(on 67.87 oil)
.....06/19/18......2.83......24.10.....(on 68.14 oil)
.....06/21/18......2.82......24.10.....(on 68.09 oil)
.....07/27/18......2.86......24.24.....(on 69.40 oil)
.....10/03/18......2.94......23.63.....(on 69.43 oil)
.....02/04/20......2.09......27.87.....(on 58.34 oil)
.....04/13/20......1.77......20.47.....(on 36.33 oil)...(Anomalous on COVID-19 shutdowns)
.....08/24/20......1.82......22.33.....(on 40.77 oil)...(Anomalous on COVID-19 shutdowns)
.....08/29/20......1.90......21.62.....(on 41.05 oil)...(Anomalous on COVID-19 shutdowns)
.....09/27/20......2.03......20.21.....(on 40.97 oil)...(Anomalous on COVID-19 shutdowns)
.....01/18/21......2.57......18.25.....(on 46.84 oil)
.....01/23/21......2.54......18.77.....(on 47.70 oil)
.....05/14/21......2.63......23.85.....(on 62.68 oil)
.....12/31/21......4.49......16.91.....(on 75.93 oil)...(These 8 crossings,
.....01/01/22......4.47......16.97.....(on 75.66 oil)....while negated on
.....01/03/22......4.42......17.10.....(on 75.54 oil)....04/06/22, are to be
.....02/04/22......4.16......18.59.....(on 77.41 oil)....assumed only a
.....02/13/22......4.16......19.35.....(on 80.56 oil)....few cents off from
.....02/19/22......4.22......19.49.....(on 82.38 oil)....what fair-value likely
.....02/23/22......4.27......19.56.....(on 83.56 oil)....was for each of
.....03/07/22......4.44......20.06.....(on 89.04 oil)....the crossing dates)
.....04/20/22......5.17......19.73.....(on 102.48 oil) ***
.....05/05/22......5.75......18.18.....(on 104.98 oil) ***
.....05/09/22......5.96......17.67.....(on 105.85 oil) ***
.....05/20/22......6.50......16.22.....(on 105.51 oil) ***


..............Historical Fair Value Crossings
.............(Storage-Based Natgas Pricing)
..................--10 Week Average--
____Date____H.Hub__Oil/Gas___Comments__
.....01/03/02......2.38........8.31.....(on $19.75 oil)
.....06/23/02......3.38........7.79.....(on 26.33 oil)
.....07/30/02......3.13........8.38.....(on 26.26 oil)
.....03/11/03......6.54........5.31.....(on 34.76 oil)
.....03/26/04......5.49........6.46.....(on 35.46 oil)
.....05/24/04......5.81........6.52.....(on 37.83 oil)
.....02/25/05......6.28........7.41.....(on 46.51 oil)
.....07/16/06......6.07......11.80.....(on 71.68 oil)
.....10/13/06......5.65......11.81.....(on 66.65 oil)
.....08/16/07......6.61......10.86.....(on 71.87 oil)
.....04/14/08......9.17......11.16.....(on 102.34 oil)
.....09/11/09......3.08......21.99.....(on 67.82 oil)
.....01/31/10......5.32......14.35.....(on 76.37 oil)
.....02/08/12......2.87......34.54.....(on 99.09 oil)
.....06/09/13......4.08......22.89.....(on 93.38 oil)
.....10/09/13......3.52......30.18.....(on 106.20 oil)
.....10/23/13......3.60......29.26.....(on 105.24 oil)
.....12/09/13......3.69......26.31.....(on 97.19 oil)
.....04/15/14......5.13......19.73.....(on 101.28 oil)
.....11/26/15......2.27......19.69.....(on 44.73 oil)
.....03/04/15......2.08......15.42.....(on 32.01 oil)
.....03/23/15......1.92......17.11.....(on 32.90 oil)


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