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Msg  420228 of 440417  at  5/23/2022 9:50:01 AM  by


The following message was updated on 5/23/2022 10:21:36 AM.

 In response to msg 420015 by  c185pilot2000
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Gorozen: Permanent oil crises aka peak oil: C185pilot: Sorry for

deleting my post that you responded to. I tried to amend it with 1 small change, but the IV edit function ruined the whole post so I try to replicate it below as well as expand on my documentation:
In Gorozen's Q1 2022 missive, Adam concludes with, " I vividly remember my father mentioning that oil was a finite resource, and that it was only a matter of time before all the great oil reservoirs were discovered and that eventually the world’s oil supply of oil would decline. Oil being a finite resource is something I remember him bringing up multiple times."
I agree with Adam's Dad. I don't believe technology will extend global oil reserves indefinitely. Indeed, despite ample reserves left in Canada and Venezuela, those reserves will not be available for some time, if not indefinitely because of political impediments.
Cornucopians rely on shale to disprove the peak oil SUPPLY argument, but shale is not an oil reservoir. It is a treadmill with massive decline rates. In the history of the oil world, shale will be just a big blip.  As David Hughes has well documented in Drilling Deeper, 2014,
"Tight oil (shale oil) and shale gas production is found to be unsustainable in the medium- and longer-term at the rates forecast by the EIA, which are extremely optimistic.

This report finds that tight oil production from major plays will peak before 2020. Barring major new discoveries on the scale of the Bakken or Eagle Ford, production will be far below the EIA’s forecast by 2040. Tight oil production from the two top plays, the Bakken and Eagle Ford, will underperform the EIA’s reference case oil recovery by 28% from 2013 to 2040, and more of this production will be front-loaded than the EIA estimates. By 2040, production rates from the Bakken and Eagle Ford will be less than a tenth of that projected by the EIA. Tight oil production forecast by the EIA from plays other than the Bakken and Eagle Ford is in most cases highly optimistic and unlikely to be realized at the medium- and long-term rates projected."

History has proven David Hughes correct with great precison:
So shale has only extended global oil production peak/plateau by but a decade. 
So, what are the world's oil resources left?
The Saudi oil reserves are very old and tired. The average oil fields last ~40 years to peak. Saudi giant oil fields are 50-60 years old and are now going into retirement (like me) 
Forget the production spikes that ALWAYS precede OPEC meetings (to garner maximum oil production quota). The Saudi oil production has not increased beyond the barely stable production in 2016/2017 of 10.5 million bpd. As Core Labs frequently says on their conference calls, depletion never sleeps.
Gorozen discusses the collapse of Ghawar oil production almost 3 years ago here:
 "While the Aramco bond prospectus does not list historical production by field, it does disclose both the so-called “Maximum Sustained Capacity” and the remaining reserves for the major fields. Ghawar’s maximum sustained capacity is 3.8 mm b/d. Last year, Aramco produced at 85% of its sustained capacity, suggesting that Ghawar pumped approximately 3.3 mm b/d, down nearly 35% from its peak of 5.0 m b/d in 2005."
The rest of OPEC is no better. Their production is down from 2017-2019 stable production by over 4 million bpd from peak production or 10%. Oil prices have been over $100 for 3 months while quotas allow for greater OPEC production, but despite this opportunity and weakened treasuries (after 7 years of low oil prices), OPEC CHOOSES TO PRODUCE LESS THAN PERMITTED?
Peruse examples of peak production across most of the OPEC members as well, here:
Non-OPEC production is no better, despite high oil prices for the last 3 months. Non-OPEC production is down 2 million bpd from its peak 2 years ago.
Whomever thinks technology will reverse falling global oil production can only offer THE PROMISE of improved technology to extract more oil. The US shale revolution was technological feat of amazing proportions, but it turned out to be but a very temporary savior to the world's oil consumers. At the same time, it was a complete loss to the oil producers who produced this shale oil at a massive loss with massive bankruptcies and write-downs because banksters refused to price oil at a price (over $100) to compensate shale producers for their great effort.

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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
420256 Re: Gorozen: Permanent oil crises aka peak oil: C185pilot: Sorry for ghmndod 46 5/23/2022 10:59:46 AM
420261 Re: Gorozen: Permanent oil crises aka peak oil: C185pilot: Sorry for Petroeng 12 5/23/2022 11:18:16 AM

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