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Msg  419606 of 429837  at  5/20/2022 1:43:16 AM  by

bigenergybull


 In response to msg 419594 by  Wilk
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Re: Bulls in the index market in trouble

 "As for energy stocks, the fundamentalist on this board look at all the deficits which are readily apparent and they believe it is different this time"
 
I don't believe its different this time, but I think we disagree on what time it is. 
 
I think its a few years into a cycle created by low prices and capital starvation that typically lasts 7 - 10 years. 
I also believe this cycle is not seeing the rush of capital investment in response to high prices that previous cycles saw.  I don't see producers spending 150% of cash flow like I did in 1999 - 2008, or read about in 72 - 81, I see them spending 50% of FFO. 
 
By my watch we still have many good years ahead, with bumps and recessions (like 2001, and 2006). 
However, I believe less in an absolute clock, but in the requirement for massive capital investment to cure commodity shortages.  Like we saw in the runup to 2008, like we saw in 2014.  Or Nickel in 2006...
 
I'm not seeing it yet.   
 


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