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Msg  360174 of 372561  at  10/19/2021 12:13:21 PM  by

liltex1


CVE

 While waiting on 3rd quarter numbers I went back and looked at 2nd quarter where we paid down debt a billion. Really ready for them to get to the $10 billion debt target and see what they do. Back of envelope math so might be off here and there a bit.
 
One thing I found interesting for 22 that I did not know. They have to pay COP 6 million for each dollar WCS is >52/bbl on property they bought. That ends May 2022. Just interesting to me. It is a quarterly payment and per 2nd quarter report it was $90 million so it is not an insignificant amount and will be going away in May. 
 
They had the extra inventory they held in 2nd quarter to sell in 3rd quarter. Not insignificant but don't remember exactly how many bbls they held back for sale in 3rd qtr.
Anyone? 
 
They have greater than $200 million of Headwater stock they sold. 
 
The Kaybob and E Clearwater transactions that total $110 million close in 3rd quarter.
 
Really rough averages on oil prices. 2nd quarter was $66 and change and 3rd quarter was $71 and change. At 770,000/bod that approaches and addl $300 million for quarter.
 
 I think they will announce in November(3rd?) that they have hit $10 billion debt by then. Considering oil prices in October hopefully. Again really rough guesstimates. Sure hope so.
 
 
They can really start having flexibility on what to do going forward. Buy COP shares, buyback shares on open market and/or dividend. Would love to see big splash in some direction. Damaged refinery comes on in 2023 and they stop paying the >52 wcs in May to COP.
 
Setting up very nicely.  
 
 
Liltex 
 
 


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360178 Re: CVE extex 10 10/19/2021 12:31:28 PM


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