The life of the battery will limit the resale value of EV's. Who will pay full price for a battery that will only last a few years? The depreciation of the cars will be much higher than ICE ones.
At the same time, people will risk it. A battery that is down and won't go very far is very different from not working.
So while your analysis is interesting and the implications are important to consider, I think the conclusions about the limits of EV penetration is questionable. The taxes and pressure to move off of ICE will be insane. Right now in my area most politicians want to ban ALL cars, much less ICE. (Take a bike or transit!!)