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Msg  342677 of 353324  at  7/31/2021 3:50:13 PM  by

newtoboard

The following message was updated on 7/31/2021 3:51:55 PM.

 In response to msg 342270 by  Riskyinvestor
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Re: CVE accounting

Wonderful series of posts. 
 
I would note that the CVE reconciliation of cashflows appears logical and in-line with (downstream) peers. 
 
Simple fact is that downstream requires large working capital (E.g. inventory) balances. This can result in large Q/Q changes which substantially distort cashflows. I did a quick spot-check and CVE's working capital build of $430MM is not dissimilar from Q2 results from peers. For example, SU posted a $276MM WC build in Q2.
 
It's important to also acknowledge the factors unique to CVE's downstream operations which result in further short-term increases to working capital. Simple fact is that CVE blew-up a refinery and should be expected to have WC builds (for multiple reasons). I walk through it below.
 
Inventory
 
Q/Q increase from $3,911MM to $4,193MM. CVE is likely restocking after a partial LIFO liquidation. It would have been illogical for them to carry crude stores in their shut-down refinery (particularly in a backwardated market). As they re-stock and replace, inventory should increase. This is what we're seeing.
 
Receivables
 
Q/Q increase from $4,208MM to $4,526MM. Oil prices went up and as such they are selling or transporting more product in dollar terms (higher revenue). Receivables should absolutely be expected to increase. Likewise, their conference call noted that their refinery rebuild is being financed out of pocket (with insurance settlement to occur on a delayed basis). This further increases their receivables balance.
 
Final thoughts
 
The conditions which have caused this working capital build are transient and tied to specific oil price changes or operational conditions. They are now "baked-in" as we look at future cash flows (and would likely reverse were oil prices to fall). It would be erroneous to burden future expectations with these factors. 
 
 
 


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Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
342682 Re: CVE accounting Pipeless_Pauper 0 7/31/2021 4:43:45 PM


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