Below are two charts that capture why I think NG in the US is going to move up a lot. You can the Europeans went from record highs to what appears to be on track for record low storage numbers. The US is following a similar track, but slower. The US has moved from record high storage now basically in the middle. This process will continue and the NG price will move up in the US as NG cuts down to the lower bounds. The US has not had the uptick in drilling rigs, and the frac spread has flattened. The Europeans will be pulling more LNG from the US, with several new LNG exports plants on way by the end of 2021, which will take NG out of the US just as the winter demand bites.
In order for NG prices not to move up, the trends below have to be arrested, and that is not in the cards that have been dealt so far.