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Energy Investing
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Daily Gas Flows (Part 4- Evaluation)==============Daily Model Baseline Score================ ..................(Demand in excess of supply, BCF/Day) _Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri__Total 12/25/20.....-6.4....-1.2......2.6......5.5......4.1.....-2.2.....-4.8.....-2.4 01/01/21.....-9.1....-1.3......4.8......2.4......0.3.....-1.1.....-1.4.....-5.4 01/08/21.....-0.7....-3.0......1.1......2.0......0.8.....-2.3.....-1.3.....-3.4 01/15/21......2.3.....-0.6......0.9......4.6......4.4......4.8......3.6....20.0 01/22/21.....-3.2....-5.2.....-0.8......0.0.....-2.1.....-3.5....-0.2...-15.0 01/29/21......0.9.....-5.5....-1.6......0.1.....-0.8.....-3.7.....-5.6..-16.2 02/05/21.....-7.0....-5.4.....-3.0......1.4......1.7.....-0.1.....-0.2..-12.6 02/12/21......0.1.....-5.4....-5.6......0.1......1.7.....-1.4.....-3.5...-14.0 02/19/21......3.5......1.3......4.6......8.3......8.0......5.9....12.3....43.9 02/26/21.....-6.1....-7.4.....-4.3......3.5......1.1.....-1.6.....-3.4..-18.2 03/05/21.....-9.3....-8.6.....-8.7.....-8.6....................................-35.2i ===========Physicals Daily Model Baseline Score============ ..................(Demand in excess of supply, BCF/Day) _Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri__Total 12/25/20.....-0.4....-0.3.....-3.1.....-3.3.....-3.5....-5.9.....-2.1...-18.6 01/01/21.....-1.2......3.5......3.9......3.3......1.8....-1.9.....-1.8......7.6 01/08/21.....-3.4....-6.9.....-2.9.....-3.5.....-4.8....-6.5.....-1.7...-29.7 01/15/21......5.4......3.8......5.4......6.0......0.1.....-4.3....-6.5......9.9 01/22/21...-11.5..-13.2.....-8.7.....-7.0.....-7.2....-9.8.....-6.6...-64.0 01/29/21......1.3.....-1.5....-0.1......0.7......1.7......2.9......4.6......9.6 02/05/21......0.6.....-3.2....-2.4......2.2......2.1.....-0.3.....-0.7.....-1.7 02/12/21......3.5......5.8....10.2....13.4....12.7....12.1....14.3....72.0 02/19/21....24.9....24.4....27.9....29.9....29.8....27.7....31.8..196.4 02/26/21....12.2......7.1......0.8.....-0.9....-7.5.....-8.6.....-6.8.....-3.7 03/05/21...-14.9..-18.3...-14.5.....-6.8....................................-54.5i ================Fair-Value Model================= .................----10 Week Average----- __Date__BL.Score_H.Hub_Oil/Gas________Signal________ 01/30/21.....-0.26......2.56.....19.07......Fair-Value < 2.56 01/31/21.....-0.33......2.57.....19.08......Fair-Value < 2.57 02/01/21.....-0.34......2.57.....19.07......Fair-Value < 2.57 02/02/21.....-0.25......2.59.....19.03......Fair-Value < 2.59 02/03/21.....-0.15......2.60.....19.02......Fair-Value < 2.60 02/04/21.....-0.10......2.61.....19.01......Fair-Value < 2.61 02/05/21.....-0.05......2.62.....18.96......Fair-Value < 2.62 02/06/21.....-0.07......2.64.....18.91......Fair-Value < 2.64 02/07/21.....-0.21......2.65.....18.85......Fair-Value < 2.65 02/08/21.....-0.33......2.66.....18.89......Fair-Value < 2.66 02/09/21.....-0.34......2.66.....18.93......Fair-Value < 2.66 02/10/21.....-0.35......2.68.....18.90......Fair-Value < 2.68 02/11/21.....-0.43......2.73.....18.63......Fair-Value < 2.73 02/12/21.....-0.53......2.78.....18.36......Fair-Value < 2.78 02/13/21.....-0.48......2.83.....18.10......Fair-Value < 2.83 02/14/21.....-0.47......2.88.....17.84......Fair-Value < 2.88 02/15/21.....-0.40......2.93.....17.60......Fair-Value < 2.93 02/16/21.....-0.29......3.14.....16.49......Fair-Value < 3.14 02/17/21.....-0.18......3.44.....15.11......Fair-Value < 3.44 02/18/21.....-0.10......3.51.....14.85......Fair-Value < 3.51 02/19/21......0.06......3.55.....14.76......Fair-Value = 3.55 *** 02/20/21.....-0.04......3.58.....14.67......Fair-Value < 3.58 02/21/21.....-0.18......3.62.....14.57......Fair-Value < 3.62 02/22/21.....-0.26......3.62.....14.62......Fair-Value < 3.62 02/23/21.....-0.23......3.62.....14.67......Fair-Value < 3.62 02/24/21.....-0.23......3.62.....14.72......Fair-Value < 3.62 02/25/21.....-0.26......3.62.....14.78......Fair-Value < 3.62 02/26/21.....-0.33......3.62.....14.84......Fair-Value < 3.62 02/27/21.....-0.37......3.62.....14.89......Fair-Value Much < 3.62 02/28/21.....-0.48r.....3.62.....14.94......Fair-Value Much < 3.62 03/01/21.....-0.64r.....3.62.....14.99......Fair-Value Much < 3.62 03/01/21.....-0.84......3.62.....15.03......Fair-Value Much < 3.62 ......*** Fair-value crossing generated 02/19 ($3.55), subject to EIA actuals & revisions. ..........Contemporary Fair Value Crossings ...........(Fair-Value-Based Natgas Pricing) ..................--10 Week Average-- ____Date____H.Hub__Oil/Gas___Comments__ .....12/16/17......2.90......19.07.....(on 55.23 oil) .....12/20/17......2.88......19.29.....(on 55.65 oil) .....12/25/17......2.86......19.63.....(on 56.14 oil) .....01/18/18......3.16......18.63.....(on 58.95 oil) (Anomalous on freeze-offs) .....04/03/18......2.75......22.92.....(on 63.03 oil) .....04/11/18......2.66......23.58.....(on 62.78 oil) .....05/02/18......2.70......23.91.....(on 64.45 oil) .....05/23/18......2.72......24.64.....(on 67.27 oil) .....06/09/18......2.78......24.35.....(on 67.77 oil) .....06/12/18......2.79......24.31.....(on 67.87 oil) .....06/19/18......2.83......24.10.....(on 68.14 oil) .....06/21/18......2.82......24.10.....(on 68.09 oil) .....07/27/18......2.86......24.24.....(on 69.40 oil) .....10/03/18......2.94......23.63.....(on 69.43 oil) .....02/04/20......2.09......27.87.....(on 58.34 oil) .....04/13/20......1.77......20.47.....(on 36.33 oil) (Anomalous on COVID-19 shutdowns) .....08/24/20......1.82......22.33.....(on 40.77 oil) (Anomalous on COVID-19 shutdowns) .....08/29/20......1.90......21.62.....(on 41.05 oil) (Anomalous on COVID-19 shutdowns) .....09/27/20......2.03......20.21.....(on 40.97 oil) (Anomalous on COVID-19 shutdowns) .....01/21/21......2.56......18.54.....(on 47.35 oil) *** .....01/22/21......2.55......18.65.....(on 47.52 oil) *** .....01/25/21......2.53......18.96.....(on 48.04 oil) *** .....02/19/21......3.55......14.76.....(on 52.34 oil) *** (Anomalous on Texas energy crisis) ......*** Fair-value crossings generated 01/21 through 01/25 (Median $2.55). ......*** Fair-value crossing generated 02/19 ($3.55), subject to EIA actuals & revisions. ..............Historical Fair Value Crossings .............(Storage-Based Natgas Pricing) ..................--10 Week Average-- ____Date____H.Hub__Oil/Gas___Comments__ .....01/03/02......2.38........8.31.....(on $19.75 oil) .....06/23/02......3.38........7.79.....(on 26.33 oil) .....07/30/02......3.13........8.38.....(on 26.26 oil) .....03/11/03......6.54........5.31.....(on 34.76 oil) .....03/26/04......5.49........6.46.....(on 35.46 oil) .....05/24/04......5.81........6.52.....(on 37.83 oil) .....02/25/05......6.28........7.41.....(on 46.51 oil) .....07/16/06......6.07......11.80.....(on 71.68 oil) .....10/13/06......5.65......11.81.....(on 66.65 oil) .....08/16/07......6.61......10.86.....(on 71.87 oil) .....04/14/08......9.17......11.16.....(on 102.34 oil) .....09/11/09......3.08......21.99.....(on 67.82 oil) .....01/31/10......5.32......14.35.....(on 76.37 oil) .....02/08/12......2.87......34.54.....(on 99.09 oil) .....06/09/13......4.08......22.89.....(on 93.38 oil) .....10/09/13......3.52......30.18.....(on 106.20 oil) .....10/23/13......3.60......29.26.....(on 105.24 oil) .....12/09/13......3.69......26.31.....(on 97.19 oil) .....04/15/14......5.13......19.73.....(on 101.28 oil) .....11/26/15......2.27......19.69.....(on 44.73 oil) .....03/04/15......2.08......15.42.....(on 32.01 oil) .....03/23/15......1.92......17.11.....(on 32.90 oil) |
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