Energy Investing - Daily Gas Flows (Part 4- Evaluation) - Energy Investing - InvestorVillage
This is a semi-private group. You are free to browse messages, but you must be a member of this group to post messages. Join This Group

Group: Energy Investing   /  Message Board  /  Read Message

 
 






Keyword
Subject
Between
and
Rec'd By
Authored By
Minimum Recs
  
Previous Message  Next Message   Post Message   Post a Reply return to message boardtop of board
Msg  316906 of 323325  at  3/3/2021 10:39:10 PM  by

robry825


Daily Gas Flows (Part 4- Evaluation)

==============Daily Model Baseline Score================
..................(Demand in excess of supply, BCF/Day)
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri__Total
12/25/20.....-6.4....-1.2......2.6......5.5......4.1.....-2.2.....-4.8.....-2.4
01/01/21.....-9.1....-1.3......4.8......2.4......0.3.....-1.1.....-1.4.....-5.4
01/08/21.....-0.7....-3.0......1.1......2.0......0.8.....-2.3.....-1.3.....-3.4
01/15/21......2.3.....-0.6......0.9......4.6......4.4......4.8......3.6....20.0
01/22/21.....-3.2....-5.2.....-0.8......0.0.....-2.1.....-3.5....-0.2...-15.0
01/29/21......0.9.....-5.5....-1.6......0.1.....-0.8.....-3.7.....-5.6..-16.2
02/05/21.....-7.0....-5.4.....-3.0......1.4......1.7.....-0.1.....-0.2..-12.6
02/12/21......0.1.....-5.4....-5.6......0.1......1.7.....-1.4.....-3.5...-14.0
02/19/21......3.5......1.3......4.6......8.3......8.0......5.9....12.3....43.9
02/26/21.....-6.1....-7.4.....-4.3......3.5......1.1.....-1.6.....-3.4..-18.2
03/05/21.....-9.3....-8.6.....-8.7.....-8.6....................................-35.2i



===========Physicals Daily Model Baseline Score============
..................(Demand in excess of supply, BCF/Day)
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri__Total
12/25/20.....-0.4....-0.3.....-3.1.....-3.3.....-3.5....-5.9.....-2.1...-18.6
01/01/21.....-1.2......3.5......3.9......3.3......1.8....-1.9.....-1.8......7.6
01/08/21.....-3.4....-6.9.....-2.9.....-3.5.....-4.8....-6.5.....-1.7...-29.7
01/15/21......5.4......3.8......5.4......6.0......0.1.....-4.3....-6.5......9.9
01/22/21...-11.5..-13.2.....-8.7.....-7.0.....-7.2....-9.8.....-6.6...-64.0
01/29/21......1.3.....-1.5....-0.1......0.7......1.7......2.9......4.6......9.6
02/05/21......0.6.....-3.2....-2.4......2.2......2.1.....-0.3.....-0.7.....-1.7
02/12/21......3.5......5.8....10.2....13.4....12.7....12.1....14.3....72.0
02/19/21....24.9....24.4....27.9....29.9....29.8....27.7....31.8..196.4
02/26/21....12.2......7.1......0.8.....-0.9....-7.5.....-8.6.....-6.8.....-3.7
03/05/21...-14.9..-18.3...-14.5.....-6.8....................................-54.5i



================Fair-Value Model=================
.................----10 Week Average-----
__Date__BL.Score_H.Hub_Oil/Gas________Signal________
01/30/21.....-0.26......2.56.....19.07......Fair-Value < 2.56
01/31/21.....-0.33......2.57.....19.08......Fair-Value < 2.57
02/01/21.....-0.34......2.57.....19.07......Fair-Value < 2.57
02/02/21.....-0.25......2.59.....19.03......Fair-Value < 2.59
02/03/21.....-0.15......2.60.....19.02......Fair-Value < 2.60
02/04/21.....-0.10......2.61.....19.01......Fair-Value < 2.61
02/05/21.....-0.05......2.62.....18.96......Fair-Value < 2.62
02/06/21.....-0.07......2.64.....18.91......Fair-Value < 2.64
02/07/21.....-0.21......2.65.....18.85......Fair-Value < 2.65
02/08/21.....-0.33......2.66.....18.89......Fair-Value < 2.66
02/09/21.....-0.34......2.66.....18.93......Fair-Value < 2.66
02/10/21.....-0.35......2.68.....18.90......Fair-Value < 2.68
02/11/21.....-0.43......2.73.....18.63......Fair-Value < 2.73
02/12/21.....-0.53......2.78.....18.36......Fair-Value < 2.78
02/13/21.....-0.48......2.83.....18.10......Fair-Value < 2.83
02/14/21.....-0.47......2.88.....17.84......Fair-Value < 2.88
02/15/21.....-0.40......2.93.....17.60......Fair-Value < 2.93
02/16/21.....-0.29......3.14.....16.49......Fair-Value < 3.14
02/17/21.....-0.18......3.44.....15.11......Fair-Value < 3.44
02/18/21.....-0.10......3.51.....14.85......Fair-Value < 3.51
02/19/21......0.06......3.55.....14.76......Fair-Value = 3.55 ***
02/20/21.....-0.04......3.58.....14.67......Fair-Value < 3.58
02/21/21.....-0.18......3.62.....14.57......Fair-Value < 3.62
02/22/21.....-0.26......3.62.....14.62......Fair-Value < 3.62
02/23/21.....-0.23......3.62.....14.67......Fair-Value < 3.62
02/24/21.....-0.23......3.62.....14.72......Fair-Value < 3.62
02/25/21.....-0.26......3.62.....14.78......Fair-Value < 3.62
02/26/21.....-0.33......3.62.....14.84......Fair-Value < 3.62
02/27/21.....-0.37......3.62.....14.89......Fair-Value Much < 3.62
02/28/21.....-0.48r.....3.62.....14.94......Fair-Value Much < 3.62
03/01/21.....-0.64r.....3.62.....14.99......Fair-Value Much < 3.62
03/01/21.....-0.84......3.62.....15.03......Fair-Value Much < 3.62
......*** Fair-value crossing generated 02/19 ($3.55), subject to EIA actuals & revisions.



..........Contemporary Fair Value Crossings
...........(Fair-Value-Based Natgas Pricing)
..................--10 Week Average--
____Date____H.Hub__Oil/Gas___Comments__
.....12/16/17......2.90......19.07.....(on 55.23 oil)
.....12/20/17......2.88......19.29.....(on 55.65 oil)
.....12/25/17......2.86......19.63.....(on 56.14 oil)
.....01/18/18......3.16......18.63.....(on 58.95 oil) (Anomalous on freeze-offs)
.....04/03/18......2.75......22.92.....(on 63.03 oil)
.....04/11/18......2.66......23.58.....(on 62.78 oil)
.....05/02/18......2.70......23.91.....(on 64.45 oil)
.....05/23/18......2.72......24.64.....(on 67.27 oil)
.....06/09/18......2.78......24.35.....(on 67.77 oil)
.....06/12/18......2.79......24.31.....(on 67.87 oil)
.....06/19/18......2.83......24.10.....(on 68.14 oil)
.....06/21/18......2.82......24.10.....(on 68.09 oil)
.....07/27/18......2.86......24.24.....(on 69.40 oil)
.....10/03/18......2.94......23.63.....(on 69.43 oil)
.....02/04/20......2.09......27.87.....(on 58.34 oil)
.....04/13/20......1.77......20.47.....(on 36.33 oil) (Anomalous on COVID-19 shutdowns)
.....08/24/20......1.82......22.33.....(on 40.77 oil) (Anomalous on COVID-19 shutdowns)
.....08/29/20......1.90......21.62.....(on 41.05 oil) (Anomalous on COVID-19 shutdowns)
.....09/27/20......2.03......20.21.....(on 40.97 oil) (Anomalous on COVID-19 shutdowns)
.....01/21/21......2.56......18.54.....(on 47.35 oil) ***
.....01/22/21......2.55......18.65.....(on 47.52 oil) ***
.....01/25/21......2.53......18.96.....(on 48.04 oil) ***
.....02/19/21......3.55......14.76.....(on 52.34 oil) *** (Anomalous on Texas energy crisis)
......*** Fair-value crossings generated 01/21 through 01/25 (Median $2.55).
......*** Fair-value crossing generated 02/19 ($3.55), subject to EIA actuals & revisions.




..............Historical Fair Value Crossings
.............(Storage-Based Natgas Pricing)
..................--10 Week Average--
____Date____H.Hub__Oil/Gas___Comments__
.....01/03/02......2.38........8.31.....(on $19.75 oil)
.....06/23/02......3.38........7.79.....(on 26.33 oil)
.....07/30/02......3.13........8.38.....(on 26.26 oil)
.....03/11/03......6.54........5.31.....(on 34.76 oil)
.....03/26/04......5.49........6.46.....(on 35.46 oil)
.....05/24/04......5.81........6.52.....(on 37.83 oil)
.....02/25/05......6.28........7.41.....(on 46.51 oil)
.....07/16/06......6.07......11.80.....(on 71.68 oil)
.....10/13/06......5.65......11.81.....(on 66.65 oil)
.....08/16/07......6.61......10.86.....(on 71.87 oil)
.....04/14/08......9.17......11.16.....(on 102.34 oil)
.....09/11/09......3.08......21.99.....(on 67.82 oil)
.....01/31/10......5.32......14.35.....(on 76.37 oil)
.....02/08/12......2.87......34.54.....(on 99.09 oil)
.....06/09/13......4.08......22.89.....(on 93.38 oil)
.....10/09/13......3.52......30.18.....(on 106.20 oil)
.....10/23/13......3.60......29.26.....(on 105.24 oil)
.....12/09/13......3.69......26.31.....(on 97.19 oil)
.....04/15/14......5.13......19.73.....(on 101.28 oil)
.....11/26/15......2.27......19.69.....(on 44.73 oil)
.....03/04/15......2.08......15.42.....(on 32.01 oil)
.....03/23/15......1.92......17.11.....(on 32.90 oil)


     e-mail to a friend      printer-friendly     add to library      
| More
Recs: 0     Views: 0
Previous Message  Next Message   Post Message   Post a Reply return to message boardtop of board








Financial Market Data provided by
.
Loading...