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Msg  316905 of 323329  at  3/3/2021 10:39:08 PM  by

robry825


Daily Gas Flows (Part 3- LT Model)

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------


==========US Longer-Term Model============
......2020 Spring.....1986 BCF*...Fall..3958 BCF*
......2021 Spring.....1533 BCF.....Fall..3831 BCF
......2022 Spring.....1356 BCF.....Fall..3670 BCF
......2023 Spring.....1170 BCF.....Fall..3509 BCF
......*=Actuals for week ended 03/27/20 & 11/13/20



____Run____F-16_S-17____Run____S-17_F-17____Run____F-17_S-18____Run____S-18_F-18____Run____F-18_S-19____Run____S-19_F-19____Run____F-19_S-20____Run____S-20_F-20____Run____F-20_S-21____Run____S-21_F-21
03/30/16....4523..2130....11/23/16....1435..3097....04/20/17....3692....930....11/22/17....1230..3117....05/08/18....3467..1122........n/a...............................04/11/19....3784..1694....11/27/19....1758..4791....04/17/20....4150..1608....11/27/20....1176....2795
04/07/16......n/a.....n/a.....12/02/16....1463..3161....05/09/17....3680....865....11/28/17....1192..3020....05/16/18....3492..1155....11/28/18......960..3582....04/18/19....3858..1775....12/05/19....1775..4819....04/23/20....4353..1947....12/04/20....1295....3001
04/13/16....4429..1978....12/08/16....1521..3245....05/16/17....3694....889....12/05/17....1369..3337....05/23/18....3475..1122........n/a...............................04/25/19....3852..1742....12/12/19....1769..4819....04/30/20....4539..2259....12/10/20....1291....2978
04/20/16....4354..1866....12/14/16....1541..3295....05/23/17....3708....908....12/13/17....1498..3616....05/30/18....3417..1020....11/28/18....1112..4012....05/02/19....3995..1953....12/19/19....1751..4754....05/07/20....4692..2493....12/17/20....1341....3061
04/28/16....4236..1652....12/22/16....1430..3118....05/31/17....3665....820....12/19/17....1474..3622....06/06/18....3401....992....12/20/18....1142..4144....05/10/19....4054..2053....12/27/19....1677..4604....05/14/20....4845..2746....12/24/20....1379....3157
05/04/16....4142..1478....12/29/16....1275..2797....06/06/17....3752....960....12/27/17....1527..3711....06/13/18....3385....969....12/29/18....1231..4274....05/16/19....4109..2139....01/03/20....1721..4597....05/21/20....4891..2839....12/31/20....1485....3372
05/11/16....4102..1416....01/03/17....1321..2777....06/14/17....3810..1061....01/03/18....1461..3682....06/20/18....3359....932....01/05/19....1354..4421....05/25/19....4131..2185....01/09/20....1786..4606....05/28/20....4910..2871....01/05/21....1561....3549
05/19/16....4066..1345....01/09/17....1466..3064....06/21/17....3854..1167....01/09/18....1236..3378....06/27/18....3355....946....01/10/19....1378..4405....05/30/19....4162..2239....01/17/20....1927..4698....06/04/20....4890..2860....01/15/21....1642....3726
05/25/16....4020..1270....01/19/17....1337..2778....06/27/17....3807..1094....01/16/18....1214..3324....07/04/18....3413..1061....01/17/19....1462..4531....06/08/19....4168..2261....01/23/20....1895..4614....06/11/20....4890..2878....01/19/21....1676....3775
06/03/16....4062..1325....01/26/17....1433..2877....07/04/17....3813..1107....01/23/18....1119..3196....07/11/18....3351....997....01/24/19....1466..4532....06/14/19....4097..2141....01/30/20....1831..4415....06/18/20....4835..2806....01/28/21....1748....3938
06/10/16....4048..1308....02/03/17....1573..3048....07/12/17....3767..1028....01/30/18....1172..3164....07/18/18....3304....920....01/31/19....1486..4698....06/20/19....4065..2083....02/06/20....1837..4283....06/25/20....4837..2805....02/04/21....1767....3995
06/17/16....4041..1303....02/09/17....1618..3078....07/18/17....3751..1019....02/06/18....1264..3301....07/25/18....3208....765....02/07/19....1403..4607....06/27/19....3982..1934....02/13/20....1860..4157....07/02/20....4674..2532....02/12/21....1785....4014
06/24/16....4015..1263....02/14/17....1691..3163....07/26/17....3701....932....02/14/18....1239..3231....08/02/18....3208....775....02/14/19....1472..4702....07/04/19....3964..1904....02/20/20....1826..3981....07/09/20....4542..2308....02/18/21....1735....4077
07/01/16....3956..1165....02/23/17....1775..3276....08/01/17....3650....836....02/21/18....1245..3158....08/08/18....3191....749....02/21/19....1384..4461....07/11/19....3898..1805....02/27/20....1769..3728....07/16/20....4413..2088....02/25/21....1508....3720
07/08/16....3928..1133....03/02/17....1927..3465....08/08/17....3627....787....02/28/18....1282..3127....08/15/18....3177....741....02/28/19....1301..4272....07/18/19....3831..1696....03/05/20....1776..3703....07/24/20....4308..1901....03/03/21....1533....3831
07/15/16....3952..1183....03/07/17....2010..3670....08/15/17....3607....712....03/07/18....1342..3177....08/22/18....3141....661....03/07/19....1231..4126....07/25/19....3779..1634....03/12/20....1841..3772....07/30/20....4240..1784
07/22/16....3939..1178....03/15/17....2052..3655....08/22/17....3600....702....03/14/18....1355..3181....08/28/18....3134....624....03/14/19....1087..3809....08/01/19....3797..1677....03/19/20....1918..3784....08/06/20....4219..1770
08/29/16....3940..1216....03/22/17....1998..3570....08/29/17....3575....633....03/21/18....1362..3315....09/05/18....3158....708....03/21/19....1107..3766....08/08/19....3758..1606....03/26/20....1954..3789....08/13/20....4241..1819
08/05/16....3908..1198....03/30/17....2014..3708....09/06/17....3594....671....03/28/18....1356..3352....09/13/18....3155....724....03/28/19....1098..3729....08/15/19....3722..1542....04/02/20....1973..3780....08/20/20....4203..1760
08/11/16....3940..1289....04/04/17....2043..3698....09/13/17....3645....769....04/04/18....1356..3483....09/20/18....3144....683....04/04/19....1107..3788....08/23/19....3708..1528....04/09/20....1986..3943....08/27/20....4170..1699
08/17/16....3903..1206....04/11/17....2049..3660....09/19/17....3684....851....04/10/18....1339..3493....09/25/18....3107....642............................................08/29/19....3709..1553............................................09/03/20....4111..1600
08/24/16....3851..1046............................................09/26/17....3721....969....04/18/18....1309..3396....10/03/18....3143....736............................................09/05/19....3719..1591............................................09/10/20....4133..1683
08/31/16....3863..1063............................................10/04/17....3687....903....04/25/18....1285..3303....10/10/18......n/a......n/a............................................09/12/19....3689..1540............................................09/16/20....4133..1712
09/07/16....3858..1078............................................10/10/17....3725....989....05/02/18....1281..3348....10/17/18....3199....898............................................09/19/19....3682..1541............................................09/24/20....4111..1668
09/13/16....3843..1077............................................10/17/17....3716....988............................................10/24/18....3194....925............................................09/26/19....3708..1614............................................10/01/20....4099..1641
09/20/16....3813..1002............................................10/24/17....3746..1023............................................10/31/18....3188....980............................................10/03/19....3731..1667............................................10/08/20....4080..1575
09/28/16....3815..1023............................................10/31/17....3772..1061............................................11/07/18....3209..1017............................................10/10/19....3736..1688............................................10/15/20....4039..1463
10/05/16....3830..1041............................................11/08/17....3775..1117............................................11/13/18....3222..1034............................................10/17/19....3756..1738............................................10/22/20....4013..1367
10/12/16....3887..1159............................................11/15/17....3790..1177............................................................................................................................10/24/19....3764..1787............................................10/30/20....3990..1310
10/19/16....3911..1200............................................................................................................................................................................................................10/31/19....3786..1830............................................11/05/20....3955..1185
10/27/16....3934..1202............................................................................................................................................................................................................11/06/19....3755..1757............................................11/12/20....3955..1151
11/02/16....3969..1300............................................................................................................................................................................................................11/14/19....3734..1801............................................11/20/20....3958..1152
11/10/16....4017..1353............................................................................................................................................................................................................11/21/19....3732..1756
11/18/16....4047..1412



....Longer-Term Model Storage Projections...
...Week.........Normal.......Projected Storage
_Ending____D-Days__Change___Inventory
02/19/21.......172.2.....-337 BCF.....1943 BCF
02/26/21.......164.1.....-108 BCF.....1834 BCF
03/05/21.......158.5.....-108 BCF.....1725 BCF
03/12/21.......151.3.......-93 BCF.....1631 BCF
03/19/21.......139.6.......-66 BCF.....1564 BCF
03/26/21.......125.5.......-30 BCF.....1533 BCF

04/02/21.......113.8..........2 BCF.....1535 BCF
04/09/21.......104.0........24 BCF.....1558 BCF
04/16/21.........95.1........34 BCF.....1592 BCF
04/23/21.........86.9........58 BCF.....1650 BCF
04/30/21.........79.1........71 BCF.....1721 BCF
05/07/21.........73.1........83 BCF.....1804 BCF
05/14/21.........68.0........94 BCF.....1898 BCF
05/21/21.........64.6........98 BCF.....1996 BCF
05/28/21.........63.0......104 BCF.....2100 BCF
06/04/21.........62.5......105 BCF.....2205 BCF
06/11/21.........63.4......101 BCF.....2305 BCF
06/18/21.........64.7........94 BCF.....2400 BCF
06/25/21.........66.6........94 BCF.....2493 BCF
07/02/21.........68.7........87 BCF.....2580 BCF
07/09/21.........70.9........93 BCF.....2673 BCF
07/16/21.........72.8........73 BCF.....2746 BCF
07/23/21.........73.9........59 BCF.....2806 BCF
07/30/21.........74.1........60 BCF.....2866 BCF
08/06/21.........73.3........58 BCF.....2924 BCF
08/13/21.........72.3........64 BCF.....2988 BCF
08/20/21.........71.0........64 BCF.....3052 BCF
08/27/21.........69.2........72 BCF.....3124 BCF
09/03/21.........66.6........77 BCF.....3202 BCF
09/10/21.........64.2........93 BCF.....3295 BCF
09/17/21.........62.4........87 BCF.....3382 BCF
09/24/21.........62.5........81 BCF.....3463 BCF
10/01/21.........64.2........84 BCF.....3547 BCF
10/08/21.........67.0........77 BCF.....3625 BCF
10/15/21.........71.9........75 BCF.....3700 BCF
10/22/21.........79.1........57 BCF.....3758 BCF
10/29/21.........87.4........51 BCF.....3809 BCF
11/05/21.........97.9........22 BCF.....3831 BCF

11/12/21.......109.7.........-4 BCF.....3826 BCF
11/19/21.......122.8.......-32 BCF.....3793 BCF
11/26/21.......135.6.......-48 BCF.....3743 BCF
12/03/21.......147.0.......-73 BCF.....3669 BCF
12/10/21.......159.7.....-122 BCF.....3546 BCF
12/17/21.......172.6.....-149 BCF.....3396 BCF
12/24/21.......184.3.....-158 BCF.....3237 BCF
12/31/21.......189.4.....-146 BCF.....3090 BCF

Note- US Longer-Term Model projections are not "Predictions", but are extrapolations carried
forward (based upon the previous 10 weeks estimated supply/demand balance & energy pricing)
to either a reasonable or unreasonable conclusion. As this model is intended for the long-term,
MMS/hurricane curtailments are projected on a fully-restored basis.


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