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Msg  316903 of 323327  at  3/3/2021 10:39:05 PM  by

robry825


Daily Gas Flows (Part 1- US Storage)

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(Best viewed at 14 pixel "Font Size", "Fixed Width" as set from the "My IV" Link)
(See post 428 for footnotes & explanations of the various models)

=========================US Gas Flow Models (US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9AM)==========================
...Week.....------------------Composite.Model-----------------------------...Capacity....EIA.........EIA......Baseline.......------EIA------.....Capacity.Model
_Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri___Total___Model__ Model__Actual__(Neutral)___YOY__YO5YA__YOY__YO5YA
11/27/20......1.1......0.2.....-0.9....-3.1.....-2.4......1.4......2.6........0.0...........-1............2...........-1..........-21...............341........288........135........216
12/04/20.....-5.5....-7.3.....-8.7...-12.3...-19.6..-21.0...-16.5.....-90.0.........-59........-70.........-91...........-72...............316........254........129........198
12/11/20...-14.4..-16.5...-18.3...-21.1...-20.2..-16.6...-14.8...-121.0.......-110......-119.......-122.........-119...............291........248..........84........177
12/18/20...-13.2..-12.2...-16.0...-25.0...-28.7..-28.5...-28.4...-151.0.......-117......-144.......-152.........-143...............292........224..........87........164
12/25/20...-20.3..-16.0...-12.9...-15.6...-16.5..-15.5...-17.2...-113.0.........-96......-113.......-114.........-116...............262........207..........75........155
01/01/21...-19.0..-19.1...-18.1...-20.2...-19.6..-17.3...-16.7...-129.0.......-111......-123.......-130.........-135...............174........193...........-7........136
01/08/21...-15.9..-15.1...-18.2...-19.5...-20.3..-20.7...-24.3...-133.0.......-107......-119.......-134.........-137...............137........230.........-22........184
01/15/21...-29.3..-28.3...-29.1...-30.1...-25.8..-23.1...-21.2...-186.0.......-154......-173.......-187.........-167.................34........206.......-100........173
01/22/21...-15.8..-15.1...-18.1...-19.4...-20.7..-18.7...-20.3...-127.0.......-105......-121.......-128.........-143...............105........253.........-17........224
01/29/21...-28.1..-26.1...-25.9...-26.1...-26.8..-29.1...-29.9...-191.0.......-181......-185.......-192.........-208.................52........201.........-77........163
02/05/21...-26.6..-22.1...-21.0...-25.5...-26.4..-24.6...-24.8...-170.0.......-156......-174.......-171.........-184..................-1........160.......-124........137
02/12/21...-30.0..-31.4...-33.3...-34.8...-35.1..-35.6...-36.8...-236.0.......-198......-224.......-237.........-251................-97..........67.......-190..........80
02/19/21...-47.1..-46.6...-48.3...-49.3...-49.7..-47.7...-49.1...-337.0.......-282......-329.......-338.........-294..............-289.......-156......-334.........-83
02/26/21...-29.3..-24.2...-16.7...-13.8.....-8.5....-7.8.....-8.5...-108.8.......-123......-109.......................-127..............-282.......-184.......-348......-126
03/05/21.....-1.7......1.1....-3.1.....-9.0i....-8.3i....-6.4i.....0.3i....-26.0i........-53i........-27i........................-62..............-245.......-122.......-325i........-83i



============================= EIA-Weighted Model Track Record =============================
...................................................................................................................................Unresolved Model
.............................................................................................Interpd............................Miss By Region
........................................Capacity...Wkly...Wkly....Model......EIA...........................As of Date Evaluated
................For Week...........Model....Model....EIA......Miss...Monthly.........Date......S.Cent...East....West
....Run........Ending.............(BCF)....(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)...(BCF)......Evaluated..(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)
10/24/19..(10/18/19).............64...........75........87......-12.......................10/31/19....-11.6....+1.8.....-1.3
10/31/19..(10/25/19).............64...........75........89......-14.......................10/31/19....-14.1......0.0......0.3
11/07/19..(11/01/19).............28...........31........34........-3
11/14/19..(11/08/19)............-16..........-15..........3......-18.......................11/14/19......-0.9..-13.9.....-3.7
11/21/19..(11/15/19)............-70..........-85.......-94.......+9
11/26/19..(11/22/19)............-22..........-14.......-28.....+14
12/03/19..(11/29/19)...............1..........-15.......-19.......+4
12/12/19..(12/06/19)............-61..........-75.......-73........-2
12/19/19..(12/13/19)............-76..........-95.....-107.....+12
12/26/19..(12/20/19)..........-127........-162.....-161........-1
01/03/20..(12/27/19)............-56..........-70.......-58......-12
01/07/20..(01/03/20)............-40..........-51.......-44........-7
01/15/20..(01/10/20)..........-100..........-94.....-109.....+15
01/22/20..(01/17/20)............-83..........-87.......-92.......+5
01/29/20..(01/24/20)..........-185........-201.....-201...........
02/05/20..(01/31/20)..........-121........-129.....-137........-8
02/11/20..(02/07/20)..........-104........-111.....-115........-4
02/19/20..(02/14/20)..........-141........-140.....-151......-11
02/26/20..(02/21/20)..........-139........-144.....-143.......+1
03/04/20..(02/28/20)..........-102........-117.....-109.......+8
03/11/20..(03/06/20)............-57..........-46.......-48........-2
03/18/20..(03/13/20)............-28..........-12.........-9.......+3
03/25/20..(03/20/20)............-44..........-36.......-29.......+7
04/01/20..(03/27/20)............-32..........-30.......-19.....+11
04/08/20..(04/03/20).............24...........36.........38.......+2
04/16/20..(04/10/20).............64...........65.........73.......+8
04/22/20..(04/17/20).............33...........50.........43........-7
04/29/20..(04/24/20).............52...........77.........70........-7
05/06/20..(05/01/20)...........102.........108.......109.......+1
05/12/20..(05/08/20).............90...........93.......103......-10
05/20/20..(05/15/20).............68...........82.........81.......+1
05/28/20..(05/22/20).............95.........100.......109........-9
06/03/20..(05/29/20).............96...........93.......102........-9
06/10/20..(06/05/20).............88...........84.........93........-9
06/18/20..(06/12/20).............83...........82.........85........-3
06/24/20..(06/19/20)...........115.........113.......120........-7
07/01/20..(06/26/20).............65...........66.........65.......+1
07/08/20..(07/03/20).............50...........50.........56........-6
07/15/20..(07/10/20).............42...........49.........45.......+4
07/22/20..(07/17/20).............45...........36.........37........-1
07/30/20..(07/24/20).............25...........23.........26........-3
08/04/20..(07/31/20).............18...........23.........33......-10
08/12/20..(08/07/20).............53...........62.........58.......+4
08/19/20..(08/14/20).............23...........37.........43........-6
08/26/20..(08/21/20).............43...........48.........45.......+3
09/02/20..(08/28/20).............33...........39.........35.......+4
09/08/20..(09/04/20).............74...........83.........70.....+13
09/16/20..(09/11/20).............66...........83.........89........-6
09/24/20..(09/18/20).............49...........71.........66.......+5
10/01/20..(09/25/20).............60...........80.........76.......+4
10/08/20..(10/02/20).............57...........71.........75........-4
10/14/20..(10/09/20).............29...........46.........46...........
10/22/20..(10/16/20).............29...........49.........52........-3
10/27/20..(10/23/20).............27...........40.........29.....+11
11/04/20..(10/30/20)............-22..........-31.......-36.......+5
11/11/20..(11/06/20)..............-6.............7...........8........-1
11/18/20..(11/13/20).............10...........24.........31........-7
11/26/20..(11/20/20)............-40..........-17.......-18........+1
12/02/20..(11/27/20)..............-1.............2.........-1........+3

...................................................................................................................................Unresolved Model
.............................................................................................Interpd............................Miss By Region
........................................Capacity...Wkly...Wkly....Model......EIA...........................As of Date Evaluated
................For Week...........Model....Model....EIA......Miss...Monthly.........Date......S.Cent...East....West
....Run........Ending.............(BCF)....(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)...(BCF)......Evaluated..(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)
12/09/20..(12/04/20)............-59..........-69.......-91......+22.......................12/10/20.....15.6.....8.1.....-0.8
12/16/20..(12/11/20)..........-110........-119.....-122........+3
12/23/20..(12/18/20)..........-117........-144.....-152........+8
12/30/20..(12/25/20)............-95........-113.....-114........+1
01/05/21..(01/01/21)..........-111........-122.....-130........+8
01/11/21..(01/08/21)..........-107........-117.....-134......+17
01/19/21..(01/15/21)..........-154........-172.....-187......+15
01/26/21..(01/22/21)..........-105........-121.....-128........+7
02/03/21..(01/29/21)..........-181........-184.....-192........+8
02/10/21..(02/05/21)..........-156........-175.....-171.........-4
02/17/21..(02/12/21)..........-198........-224.....-237......+13
02/24/21..(02/19/21)..........-282........-329.....-338........+9
02/28/21..(02/26/21)..........-123........-109........??.....................(Projection for this week's EIA report is complete)
02/28/21..(03/05/21)............-53i.........-27i........??.....................(Projection for next week's EIA report is very incomplete)



Weekly Models:
......Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
......Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the
...................................... methodology employed by the EIA, using a 4-year rolling history of the
.......................................EIA's weekly data.

Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from my own Daily & Weekly
..............................models, the EIA's Weekly & Monthly actuals, and the old AGA & Derived EIA
..............................weeklies. Initially, my own model projections (Interpolated by the daily model)
..............................are presented; followed by the EIA weekly actuals (Interpolated by the daily
..............................model), followed by the EIA monthly actuals (Interpolated successively by way
..............................of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered
..............................reclassifications & adjustments removed.

Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report
................(Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary
................hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.



Weekly Models:
......Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions.
......Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the
...................................... methadology employed by the EIA beginning in 2007.
.......................................(Also called the "2007 Model")

Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from the Daily, 2007 Weekly,
..............................EIA Weekly & Monthly, and the old AGA & Derived EIA weeklies. Initially,
..............................the 2007 model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) are presented
..............................then the EIA weekly Actuals (Interpolated by the daily model), then the EIA
..............................monthly data (Interpolated successively by way of the EIA weekly, then by
..............................the daily model), with implied non-metered reclassifications & adjustments
..............................removed.

Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report
................(Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary
................hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors.


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