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Energy Investing
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Daily Gas Flows (Part 1- US Storage)---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- (Best viewed at 14 pixel "Font Size", "Fixed Width" as set from the "My IV" Link) (See post 428 for footnotes & explanations of the various models) =========================US Gas Flow Models (US storage injections, in BCF, as of 9AM)========================== ...Week.....------------------Composite.Model-----------------------------...Capacity....EIA.........EIA......Baseline.......------EIA------.....Capacity.Model _Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri___Total___Model__ Model__Actual__(Neutral)___YOY__YO5YA__YOY__YO5YA 08/21/20......4.9......7.6......8.3......5.6......5.2......6.4......7.1......45.0..........43..........50..........45............53...............572........432........405........383 08/28/20......7.7......6.7......5.3......3.3......2.9......4.5......4.6......35.0..........33..........40..........35............30...............528........398........362........345 09/04/20......9.0....12.9....13.6....11.7......9.9......7.8......5.1......70.0..........74..........85..........70............51...............517........401........363........352 09/11/20....11.4....16.0....15.6....14.5....11.8......9.9......9.8......89.0..........67..........86..........89............68...............523........413........360........354 09/18/20....10.3....11.8....10.3......8.2......8.7......8.9......7.9......66.0..........50..........73..........66............83...............494........400........328........332 09/25/20......9.6....12.6....12.7....11.3....11.3......8.9......9.6......76.0..........60..........83..........76............91...............458........398........288........322 10/02/20....12.4....14.2....11.6......9.2....11.3......9.1......7.3......75.0..........57..........74..........75............90...............431........384........254........301 10/09/20......5.1......6.6......6.4......7.1......7.4......5.3......8.1......46.0..........29..........49..........46............77...............376........345........204........265 10/16/20......9.0......9.4......8.9......4.8......6.7......5.8......4.4......49.0..........28..........51..........49............80...............335........319........165........238 10/23/20......2.8......6.1......4.3......2.5......2.9......5.4......4.9......29.0..........27..........42..........29............53...............272........279........128........218 10/30/20.....-2.0....-1.4.....-4.6.....-6.9.....-7.0....-6.8.....-7.2.....-35.0.........-22........-29.........-36..............2...............189........195..........66........168 11/06/20.....-2.8......1.7....-0.3.....-0.2......2.0......4.1......3.5........8.0...........-6............8............8............22...............191........168..........72........143 11/13/20......7.8......8.8......7.1......5.7......2.1.....-0.6......0.1......31.0..........10..........24..........31............44...............298........235........141........188 11/20/20.....-2.2......0.7......0.1....-3.8.....-6.8.....-5.3.....-0.7....-17.0.........-40.........-17.........-18..........-22...............327........251........143........181 11/27/20......1.7......0.8.....-0.2....-2.5.....-1.8......2.0......3.1........3.1............0............3.........................-21...............345........292........136........217 12/04/20......1.1i....-0.2i....-0.9i....-0.3i....-0.5i....-0.5i....-0.2i......-1.4i..........-3i..........-1i..........................-7...............371........318 ============================= EIA-Weighted Model Track Record ============================= ...................................................................................................................................Unresolved Model .............................................................................................Interpd............................Miss By Region ........................................Capacity...Wkly...Wkly....Model......EIA...........................As of Date Evaluated ................For Week...........Model....Model....EIA......Miss...Monthly.........Date......S.Cent...East....West ....Run........Ending.............(BCF)....(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)...(BCF)......Evaluated..(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF) 01/03/18..(12/29/17)..........-159.......-217.....-206......-11 01/09/18..(01/05/18)..........-286.......-365.....-359........-6 01/17/18..(01/12/18)..........-160.......-199.....-183......-16 01/22/18..(01/19/18)..........-229.......-290.....-288........-2 01/30/18..(01/26/18)............-90.......-119.......-99......-20 02/07/18..(02/02/18)..........-109.......-131.....-119......-12 02/14/18..(02/09/18)..........-179.......-202.....-194........-8 02/21/18..(02/16/18)..........-110.......-133.....-124........-9 02/28/18..(02/23/18)............-82.........-89.......-78......-11 03/07/18..(03/02/18)............-67.........-69.......-57........-8 03/14/18..(03/09/18)..........-116.......-105.......-93......-12 03/21/18..(03/16/18)..........-113.......-101.......-86......-13 03/28/18..(03/23/18)............-77.........-71.......-63........-8 04/04/18..(03/30/18)............-41.........-27.......-20..(I)...-7 04/10/18..(04/06/18)............-22.........-15.......-19.......+4 04/18/18..(04/13/18)............-35.........-26.......-36.....+10 04/25/18..(04/20/18)............-18.........-14.......-18.......+4 05/02/18..(04/27/18).............58...........65........62.......+3 05/08/18..(05/04/18).............85.........104........89.....+15 05/16/18..(05/11/18)...........101.........110......106.......+4 05/23/18..(05/18/18).............90...........99........91.......+8 05/30/18..(05/25/18).............94.........103........96.......+7 06/05/18..(06/01/18).............90.........103........92.....+11.........(Traditional Memorial Day weekend & spring injection peak) 06/13/18..(06/08/18).............97...........99........96.......+3 06/20/18..(06/15/18).............77...........83........95......-12 06/27/18..(06/22/18).............64...........63........66........-3 07/04/18..(06/29/18).............89...........84........78.......+6 07/11/18..(07/06/18).............52...........41........51......-10 07/18/18..(07/13/18).............77...........46........46........... 07/25/18..(07/20/18).............43...........20........24........-8 08/01/18..(07/27/18).............62...........36........35.........1 08/08/18..(08/03/18).............64...........46........46........... 08/15/18..(08/10/18).............47...........34........33.........1 08/21/18..(08/17/18).............64...........48........48........... 08/28/18..(08/24/18).............78...........64........70........-6 09/05/18..(08/31/18).............63...........62........63........-1 09/12/18..(09/07/18).............67...........69........68.........1 09/19/18..(09/14/18).............77...........84........86........-2 09/25/18..(09/21/18).............36...........40........46........-6 10/03/18..(09/28/18).............91...........92........98........-6 10/10/18..(10/05/18).............75...........87........90........-3 10/17/18..(10/12/18).............63...........83........81.......+2 10/24/18..(10/19/18).............41...........57........58........-1 10/31/18..(10/26/18).............21...........40........48........-8 11/07/18..(11/02/18).............33...........53........65......-13 11/14/18..(11/09/18)...............5...........14........39......-25 11/28/18..(11/16/18)..........-115........-124.....-134....+10..........(Back run from 11/27/18 - without EIA actuals applied) 11/28/18..(11/23/18)............-67..........-72.......-59.....-13 12/11/18..(11/30/18)............-60..........-67.......-63.......-4...........(Back run from 12/11/18 - without EIA actuals applied) 12/11/18..(12/07/18)............-61..........-84.......-77.......-7 12/18/18..(12/14/18)..........-107........-132.....-141......+9 12/26/18..(12/21/18)............-42..........-47.......-48......+1 01/04/19..(12/28/18)............-34..........-32.......-20.....-12 01/09/19..(01/04/19)............-58..........-84.......-87.(J).+3 01/16/19..(01/11/19)............-90..........-70.......-81....+11 01/24/19..(01/18/19)..........-143........-158.....-163......+5 01/30/19..(01/25/19)..........-140........-184.....-173.....-11 02/06/19..(02/01/19)..........-203........-238.....-237.......-1 02/13/19..(02/08/19)............-86..........-86.......-78.......-8 02/20/19..(02/15/19)..........-161........-161.....-177....+16 02/27/19..(02/22/19)..........-157........-161.....-166......+5 03/06/19..(02/29/19)..........-135........-151.....-149.......-2 03/14/19..(03/08/19)..........-172........-206.....-204.......-2 03/18/19..(03/15/19)............-50..........-54.......-47.......-7 03/26/19..(03/22/19)............-32..........-31.......-36......+5 04/04/19..(03/29/19)..............-1...........14........23.......-9 04/11/19..(04/05/19).............14...........33........25.......+8 04/17/19..(04/12/19).............81.........100........92.......+8 04/24/19..(04/19/19).............86.........106........92.....+14 04/27/19..(04/26/19)...........113.........125......123.......+2 05/05/19..(05/03/19).............71...........93........85.......+8 05/15/19..(05/10/19).............90.........118......106.....+12 05/22/19..(05/17/19).............84.........109......100.......+9 05/30/19..(05/24/19).............94.........110......114........-4 06/06/19..(05/31/19)...........100.........113......119........-6 06/11/19..(06/07/19).............93.........108......102.......+6 06/19/19..(06/14/19).............99.........111......115........-4 06/26/19..(06/21/19).............90.........104........98.......+6 07/04/19..(06/28/19).............80...........94........89.......+5 07/10/19..(07/05/19).............78...........88........81.......+7 07/17/19..(07/12/19).............62...........70........62.......+8 07/24/19..(07/19/19).............49...........40........36.......+4 07/30/19..(07/26/19).............62...........61........65........-4 08/07/19..(08/02/19).............57...........59........55.......+4 08/15/19..(08/09/19).............57...........45........49........-4 08/21/19..(08/16/19).............68...........60........59.......+1 08/28/19..(08/23/19).............64...........58........60........-2 09/04/19..(08/30/19).............80...........76........84........-8 09/11/19..(09/06/19).............68...........74........78........-4 09/18/19..(09/13/19).............68...........77........84........-7 09/25/19..(09/20/19).............93...........84......102......-18..........Post-EIA report, EIA-wtd model revised to 97 on allocation error 10/02/19..(09/27/19).............98.........114......112.......+2 10/10/19..(10/04/19).............87...........94........98........-4 10/16/19..(10/11/19).............81.........106......104.......+2 ...................................................................................................................................Unresolved Model .............................................................................................Interpd............................Miss By Region ........................................Capacity...Wkly...Wkly....Model......EIA...........................As of Date Evaluated ................For Week...........Model....Model....EIA......Miss...Monthly.........Date......S.Cent...East....West ....Run........Ending.............(BCF)....(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF)...(BCF)......Evaluated..(BCF)..(BCF)..(BCF) 10/24/19..(10/18/19).............64...........75........87......-12.......................10/31/19....-11.6....+1.8.....-1.3 10/31/19..(10/25/19).............64...........75........89......-14.......................10/31/19....-14.1......0.0......0.3 11/07/19..(11/01/19).............28...........31........34........-3 11/14/19..(11/08/19)............-16..........-15..........3......-18.......................11/14/19......-0.9..-13.9.....-3.7 11/21/19..(11/15/19)............-70..........-85.......-94.......+9 11/26/19..(11/22/19)............-22..........-14.......-28.....+14 12/03/19..(11/29/19)...............1..........-15.......-19.......+4 12/12/19..(12/06/19)............-61..........-75.......-73........-2 12/19/19..(12/13/19)............-76..........-95.....-107.....+12 12/26/19..(12/20/19)..........-127........-162.....-161........-1 01/03/20..(12/27/19)............-56..........-70.......-58......-12 01/07/20..(01/03/20)............-40..........-51.......-44........-7 01/15/20..(01/10/20)..........-100..........-94.....-109.....+15 01/22/20..(01/17/20)............-83..........-87.......-92.......+5 01/29/20..(01/24/20)..........-185........-201.....-201........... 02/05/20..(01/31/20)..........-121........-129.....-137........-8 02/11/20..(02/07/20)..........-104........-111.....-115........-4 02/19/20..(02/14/20)..........-141........-140.....-151......-11 02/26/20..(02/21/20)..........-139........-144.....-143.......+1 03/04/20..(02/28/20)..........-102........-117.....-109.......+8 03/11/20..(03/06/20)............-57..........-46.......-48........-2 03/18/20..(03/13/20)............-28..........-12.........-9.......+3 03/25/20..(03/20/20)............-44..........-36.......-29.......+7 04/01/20..(03/27/20)............-32..........-30.......-19.....+11 04/08/20..(04/03/20).............24...........36.........38.......+2 04/16/20..(04/10/20).............64...........65.........73.......+8 04/22/20..(04/17/20).............33...........50.........43........-7 04/29/20..(04/24/20).............52...........77.........70........-7 05/06/20..(05/01/20)...........102.........108.......109.......+1 05/12/20..(05/08/20).............90...........93.......103......-10 05/20/20..(05/15/20).............68...........82.........81.......+1 05/28/20..(05/22/20).............95.........100.......109........-9 06/03/20..(05/29/20).............96...........93.......102........-9 06/10/20..(06/05/20).............88...........84.........93........-9 06/18/20..(06/12/20).............83...........82.........85........-3 06/24/20..(06/19/20)...........115.........113.......120........-7 07/01/20..(06/26/20).............65...........66.........65.......+1 07/08/20..(07/03/20).............50...........50.........56........-6 07/15/20..(07/10/20).............42...........49.........45.......+4 07/22/20..(07/17/20).............45...........36.........37........-1 07/30/20..(07/24/20).............25...........23.........26........-3 08/04/20..(07/31/20).............18...........23.........33......-10 08/12/20..(08/07/20).............53...........62.........58.......+4 08/19/20..(08/14/20).............23...........37.........43........-6 08/26/20..(08/21/20).............43...........48.........45.......+3 09/02/20..(08/28/20).............33...........39.........35.......+4 09/08/20..(09/04/20).............74...........83.........70.....+13 09/16/20..(09/11/20).............66...........83.........89........-6 09/24/20..(09/18/20).............49...........71.........66.......+5 10/01/20..(09/25/20).............60...........80.........76.......+4 10/08/20..(10/02/20).............57...........71.........75........-4 10/14/20..(10/09/20).............29...........46.........46........... 10/22/20..(10/16/20).............29...........49.........52........-3 10/27/20..(10/23/20).............27...........40.........29.....+11 11/04/20..(10/30/20)............-22..........-31.......-36.......+5 11/11/20..(11/06/20)..............-6.............7...........8........-1 11/18/20..(11/13/20).............10...........24.........31........-7 11/26/20..(11/20/20)............-40..........-17.......-18.......+1 11/29/20..(11/27/20)...............0i............3i........??.....................(Projection for next week's EIA report is incomplete) 11/29/20..(12/04/20)..............-3i...........-1i........??.....................(Projection for the following week's EIA report is very incomplete) Notes (On above): .......(I) For purposes of analysis, the EIA's flow estimate (20 BCF) is recorded as per the EIA's 9 BCF reclassification (of working gas to base gas). ......(J) For purposes of analysis, the EIA's flow estimate (87 BCF) is recorded as per the EIA's 4 BCF reclassification (of working gas to base gas). Weekly Models: ......Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions. ......Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the ...................................... methodology employed by the EIA, using a 4-year rolling history of the .......................................EIA's weekly data. Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from my own Daily & Weekly ..............................models, the EIA's Weekly & Monthly actuals, and the old AGA & Derived EIA ..............................weeklies. Initially, my own model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) ..............................are presented; followed by the EIA weekly actuals (Interpolated by the daily ..............................model), followed by the EIA monthly actuals (Interpolated successively by way ..............................of the EIA weekly, then by the daily model), with implied non-metered ..............................reclassifications & adjustments removed. Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report ................(Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary ................hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors. Weekly Models: ......Weekly EIA Actual = Weekly EIA report less reclassifications & revisions. ......Weekly EIA Model = Forward estimator of the EIA weekly data, attempting to duplicate the ...................................... methadology employed by the EIA beginning in 2007. .......................................(Also called the "2007 Model") Composite Model: A compilation of all available models, derived from the Daily, 2007 Weekly, ..............................EIA Weekly & Monthly, and the old AGA & Derived EIA weeklies. Initially, ..............................the 2007 model projections (Interpolated by the daily model) are presented ..............................then the EIA weekly Actuals (Interpolated by the daily model), then the EIA ..............................monthly data (Interpolated successively by way of the EIA weekly, then by ..............................the daily model), with implied non-metered reclassifications & adjustments ..............................removed. Baseline: An estimate of the weekly injection/withdrawal required for a dead-neutral report ................(Neither bullish or bearish), reflecting any given weeks temperatures, temporary ................hurricane shut-ins, Holidays, and a broad range of seasonal factors. |
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