Re: David Booth - Are we in for another oil crisis?
As for being at peak oil demand?, I have serious doubts. There a billion out there that would really like to have grid power and a vehicle to get around in or on.
I live in a small town in western Canada. Over the last few decades when traveling in the US by car I was somewhat surprised by the growing number of large uneconomical vehicles I was seeing used as everyday drivers. Of course I was comparing it to what I was used to seeing where I live.
Just the other day, while driving in our little town, I got into the line up at our only double left turn lane about 10-12 cars back from the light. I noticed that every vehicle in front of me was either a pickup truck or a full sized SUV. Pretty much what I had observed in the US 20 years ago is now the norm here too!
To top it off I had a discussion about a month ago with my 35 year old son about buying a new car. He said that he really wanted a 4x4 pickup so he could pursue his recreational pastimes. I was sympathetic but suggested that he get a good economical daily driver first and perhaps get a used 4x4 later as a second 'special use only' vehicle. I also told him that if he waited a few years 4x4 trucks would probably get cheap on the used market as I was explaining what follows in the next paragraph.
I told him that gas was going to get a WHOLE LOT more expensive in the next 2-3 years due to supply/demand problems and environmental tax increases. I said we are now in a temporary situation were-in gas prices are artificially low due to temporary demand reductions caused by the pandemic. There would be a return to normal demand over the next several months. I mentioned that supply would not necessarily rebound as fast demand. I said we might even have an energy crisis if the demand recovery took too long to play out. I hope you're not surprised to hear that he decided to buy a 4x4 truck for his daily driver. This kind of 'near ubiquitous' decision making among young people, tells me that an energy crisis is probably inevitable.
There may well be an energy crisis in North America, coming out of this pandemic. If so it will, no doubt, be exacerbated by the green energy regulations/taxes. The crisis may be better or worse depending on how dogmatic the people in power are about their policy choices, as it unfolds. I don't have great expectations for a quick positive political reaction to gas/oil shortages, in many jurisdictions. It may turn out to be a real opportunity for energy investment. It may also NOT turn out to be what most expect an energy crisis to look like. The green new deal policy stuff may even cause the next energy crisis, depending how/when the chips may fall.