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Energy Investing
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Daily Gas Flows (Part 4- Evaluation)==============Daily Model Baseline Score================ ..................(Demand in excess of supply, BCF/Day) _Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri__Total 05/08/20.....-4.5....-0.6.....-1.4.....-3.2.....-5.6....-6.3...-11.8...-33.4 05/15/20...-12.8....-6.2.....-4.7.....-3.3.....-4.3....-4.1.....-4.1...-39.5 05/22/20.....-3.2......0.5......2.3......2.8......0.1....-1.0.....-2.6.....-1.1 05/29/20.....-1.4......0.9....-0.6......0.6......0.7......0.0.....-0.6.....-0.4 06/05/20.....-1.6....-0.3.....-2.1.....-0.3.....-1.5......0.0....-1.3.....-7.1 06/12/20.....-3.0....-1.0.....-2.4.....-1.7......0.3......2.5.....-0.1....-5.4 06/19/20.....-3.6....-4.0.....-3.9.....-2.2.....-2.5....-2.0.....-2.5...-20.7 06/26/20......0.9......1.9......0.5......1.7......3.3......1.3......0.2......9.8 07/03/20.....-0.4......1.4......1.4......2.8......0.9......1.4....-0.7......6.8 07/10/20.....-3.5....-0.8.....-0.8......1.0.....-2.6.....-2.9...............-9.6i 07/17/20..................................................................................0.0i ===========Physicals Daily Model Baseline Score============ ..................(Demand in excess of supply, BCF/Day) _Ending___Sat__Sun__ Mon__Tue__Wed__ Thr___Fri__Total 05/08/20.....-5.2....-1.9......0.3......3.0......3.1......1.2.....-1.3.....-0.8 05/15/20......3.5......7.4......5.8......7.0......3.3.....-1.1....-4.3....21.6 05/22/20.....-3.7......0.4......2.2......2.7......1.1....-0.1.....-2.6......0.0 05/29/20.....-0.8......2.0......0.7......2.0......2.3......1.7......0.9......8.8 06/05/20.....-0.5......1.3....-0.9......1.4......2.2......4.4......3.7....11.6 06/12/20......2.1......3.4......1.6......3.5......5.4......5.0......0.8....21.8 06/19/20.....-2.9....-3.9.....-4.8.....-2.7.....-2.6....-1.7.....-1.7...-20.3 06/26/20......2.4......4.3......3.9......4.7......4.7......2.6......2.4....25.0 07/03/20......2.6......5.2......6.0......6.9......4.1......4.9......4.2....33.9 07/10/20......1.6......4.7......5.8......6.8......3.5......4.7...............27.1i ================Fair-Value Model================= .................----10 Week Average----- __Date__BL.Score_H.Hub_Oil/Gas________Signal________ 06/09/20.....-3.73......1.69.....15.03......Fair-Value Much < 1.69 06/10/20.....-3.71......1.69.....15.18......Fair-Value Much < 1.69 06/11/20.....-3.61......1.69.....15.25......Fair-Value Much < 1.69 06/12/20.....-3.50......1.69.....15.30......Fair-Value Much < 1.69 06/13/20.....-3.46......1.70.....15.35......Fair-Value Much < 1.70 06/14/20.....-3.49......1.70.....15.39......Fair-Value Much < 1.70 06/15/20.....-3.54......1.70.....15.50......Fair-Value Much < 1.70 06/16/20.....-3.56......1.69.....15.68......Fair-Value Much < 1.69 06/17/20.....-3.57......1.69.....15.83......Fair-Value Much < 1.69 06/18/20.....-3.51......1.68.....16.00......Fair-Value Much < 1.68 06/19/20.....-3.38......1.68.....16.19......Fair-Value Much < 1.68 06/20/20.....-3.23......1.67.....16.37......Fair-Value Much < 1.67 06/21/20.....-3.18......1.67.....16.55......Fair-Value Much < 1.67 06/22/20.....-3.13......1.67.....16.72......Fair-Value Much < 1.67 06/23/20.....-3.03......1.67.....16.91......Fair-Value Much < 1.67 06/24/20.....-2.86......1.67.....17.06......Fair-Value Much < 1.67 06/25/20.....-2.69......1.67.....17.23......Fair-Value Much < 1.67 06/26/20.....-2.53......1.66.....17.45......Fair-Value Much < 1.66 06/27/20.....-2.37......1.66.....17.67......Fair-Value Much < 1.66 06/28/20.....-2.29......1.65.....17.89......Fair-Value Much < 1.65 06/29/20.....-2.24......1.65.....18.56......Fair-Value Much < 1.65 06/30/20.....-2.17......1.65.....18.86......Fair-Value Much < 1.65 07/01/20.....-2.09......1.65.....19.13......Fair-Value Much < 1.65 07/02/20.....-1.98......1.64.....19.40......Fair-Value Much < 1.64 07/03/20.....-1.91......1.64.....19.66......Fair-Value Much < 1.64 07/04/20.....-1.85......1.63.....19.91......Fair-Value Much < 1.63 07/05/20.....-1.79......1.63.....20.18......Fair-Value Much < 1.63 07/06/20.....-1.71......1.63.....20.41......Fair-Value Much < 1.63 07/07/20.....-1.61......1.63.....20.67......Fair-Value Much < 1.63 07/08/20.....-1.58r.....1.63.....20.88......Fair-Value Much < 1.63 07/09/20.....-1.53......1.63.....21.04......Fair-Value Much < 1.63 ..........Contemporary Fair Value Crossings ...........(Fair-Value-Based Natgas Pricing) ..................--10 Week Average-- ____Date____H.Hub__Oil/Gas___Comments__ .....12/16/17......2.90......19.07.....(on 55.23 oil) .....12/20/17......2.88......19.29.....(on 55.65 oil) .....12/25/17......2.86......19.63.....(on 56.14 oil) .....01/18/18......3.16......18.63.....(on 58.95 oil) (Anomalous on freeze-offs) .....04/03/18......2.75......22.92.....(on 63.03 oil) .....04/11/18......2.66......23.58.....(on 62.78 oil) .....05/02/18......2.70......23.91.....(on 64.45 oil) .....05/23/18......2.72......24.64.....(on 67.27 oil) .....06/09/18......2.78......24.35.....(on 67.77 oil) .....06/12/18......2.79......24.31.....(on 67.87 oil) .....06/19/18......2.83......24.10.....(on 68.14 oil) .....06/21/18......2.82......24.10.....(on 68.09 oil) .....07/27/18......2.86......24.24.....(on 69.40 oil) .....10/03/18......2.94......23.63.....(on 69.43 oil) .....02/04/20......2.09......27.87.....(on 58.34 oil) .....04/13/20......1.77......20.47.....(on 36.33 oil) (Anomalous on COVID-19 shutdown) ..............Historical Fair Value Crossings .............(Storage-Based Natgas Pricing) ..................--10 Week Average-- ____Date____H.Hub__Oil/Gas___Comments__ .....01/03/02......2.38........8.31.....(on $19.75 oil) .....06/23/02......3.38........7.79.....(on 26.33 oil) .....07/30/02......3.13........8.38.....(on 26.26 oil) .....03/11/03......6.54........5.31.....(on 34.76 oil) .....03/26/04......5.49........6.46.....(on 35.46 oil) .....05/24/04......5.81........6.52.....(on 37.83 oil) .....02/25/05......6.28........7.41.....(on 46.51 oil) .....07/16/06......6.07......11.80.....(on 71.68 oil) .....10/13/06......5.65......11.81.....(on 66.65 oil) .....08/16/07......6.61......10.86.....(on 71.87 oil) .....04/14/08......9.17......11.16.....(on 102.34 oil) .....09/11/09......3.08......21.99.....(on 67.82 oil) .....01/31/10......5.32......14.35.....(on 76.37 oil) .....02/08/12......2.87......34.54.....(on 99.09 oil) .....06/09/13......4.08......22.89.....(on 93.38 oil) .....10/09/13......3.52......30.18.....(on 106.20 oil) .....10/23/13......3.60......29.26.....(on 105.24 oil) .....12/09/13......3.69......26.31.....(on 97.19 oil) .....04/15/14......5.13......19.73.....(on 101.28 oil) .....11/26/15......2.27......19.69.....(on 44.73 oil) .....03/04/15......2.08......15.42.....(on 32.01 oil) .....03/23/15......1.92......17.11.....(on 32.90 oil) |
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