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Msg  241962 of 467209  at  1/3/2020 1:19:32 AM  by

VIA

The following message was updated on 1/3/2020 1:24:52 AM.

 In response to msg 241900 by  doomonyou
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Re: Well oil sure believes Iran will be mad.

Doom,
 
I would not underestimate the events of the last few days. I can't believe how much people are underestimating the effectiveness of the US strikes against Kataib Hezbollah forces. In just a few simultaneous strikes, those forces suffered very seriously. It would be the equivalent of several Navy Seal Teams being targeted and wiped out by a foreign enemy.
 
And that was just a taste of what the US was able to target and execute. That is why Iran was incensed. For the last decade they were geared to fight asymmetric wars of projection and with the almighty USA looking the other way. Now you have a diametrically opposed situation whereby the US is demonstrating its ability and willingness to one-up every Iranian move while simultaneously not falling into the trap of launching an all-out war. As I said in a post many months ago, the US posture vis-a-vis Iran is akin to an Anaconda squeezing its prey. Move an inch, and the anaconda tightens its grip. 
 
Iran is not just losing ground and members of its elite fighting forces, but also face in front of its own people. The death of Soleimani has now solidified this. Several other high-profile austere scholars lost their lives along with Soleimani, and to me this spells the beginning of the end-game for Iran. 
 
Soleimani cannot be replaced. He was the mastermind of the Syria theatre of operations. He went brought Putin into Syria. He saved Assad from collapse. He set up and conducted the transfer of materiel from Iran to Lebanon for their proxies. He wiped out all Sunni resistance between Syria and Iraq. And speaking of Iraq, he was preparing the makeup and structure of the new Iraqi government.
 
That's all gone now, and the bobble-heads in Tehran are now going to have to scramble to pretend that they have a plan B for this. They don't. In a way I find this scary, because they are going to have to prove they are as capable and willing to fight as their rambunctious rhetoric of the last three years under Trumpian pressure.
 
Iran can unleash hell on the region - no doubt about it. And yes, it would wipe out much of the GCC (not just oil facilities - it would bring these countries to their knees), it would cause many casualties in Israel and with US forces, but it would be the last thing they ever do. And the Mullah's would cease to exist within a few days of that. So I don't see this scenario playing out, as much as the theocrats in Tehran pretend they are ready to be 'martyred.'
 
Iran will probably choose to try and exact some damage on US assets in as indirect a way as possible in order to save some face while not setting off any more US strikes that are truly painful.
 
Losing Soleimani is like losing your queen in a game of chess. Early in the game. It's not just the loss of a powerful piece - but a wake up call that is close to the heart. The point at which you wonder if you have been underestimating the ability and determination of your opponent all along. 
 


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Replies
Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
241963 Re: Well oil sure believes Iran will be mad. Under the Radar 9 1/3/2020 1:31:16 AM
241966 Re: Well oil sure believes Iran will be mad. rjboxer 0 1/3/2020 2:22:30 AM
241973 Re: Well oil sure believes Iran will be mad. - DOOM Resilience 1 1/3/2020 5:18:22 AM
241978 Re: Well oil sure believes Iran will be mad. doomonyou 26 1/3/2020 6:54:26 AM
241981 Re: Well oil sure believes Iran will be mad. W 3 1/3/2020 7:23:22 AM
241987 Re: Well oil sure believes Iran will be mad. Basin 20 1/3/2020 8:04:38 AM




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