Energy Investing - Do inventories need to return to five year average, or to five years ago? - Energy Investing - InvestorVillage
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Msg  138115 of 238962  at  3/25/2018 10:24:44 AM  by

kxviswan


Re: Do inventories need to return to five year average, or to five years ago?

  Ideally no. The demand in 5 years have gone up in the world by more than 7 MM barrels/day.
 
The refinery run rate was only 14.26 MM barrels/day in 2013. The refinery rate average is 16.24 MM barrels/day now.
 
So the days of supply was 24.8 days in 2013. It is 26.4 days now. But  when refinery run rate picks up to 17.2 MM barrels/day, the days of supply will be identical. This will happen soon,
 
Pipeline fill of 34 MM barrels/day alone accounts for  an increased 2.1 days of supply. If I subtract it, now we are below 2013 numbers. I am ignoring storage tanks builds or Taylor effect in this exercise.  SPR release is 31 MM barrels that will be ever increasing down the line.
 
By my calculations, the crude now is below 5 year average by some 4 MM barrels.
 
We need elevated gasoline and distillate inventories because of demand. Huge export of both diesel and gasoline play a big part in this. 
 
We are going to be drawing crude starting in April.  We will be below 2013 in terms of days of supply for crude before April end. No doubt about this.
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 


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