$Colombia and Latin America - Petrotal reserves - $Colombia and Latin America - InvestorVillage


$Colombia and Latin America
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Msg  15555 of 16777  at  2/1/2023 4:11:38 PM  by

The Red


 In response to msg 15554 by  Public_Heel
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Re: Petrotal reserves

 "... I actually think that the real prices will be at least $40 higher in 2028, half of which will be due to decrease in the value of the $US and half due to supply-demand." -P
 
That represents a 49% increase in real oil prices (from Brent US$82/bbl) over a 5-year period.
 
That would call for a decline in the real effective exchange rate (REER) of the US dollar of roughly 20%.
 
 That is in line with past US-dollar REER corrections. Source
 
 
 
 An additional steep decline in the US REER would be positive for all kinds of reasons both inside and outside of the USA. I doubt it will happen if the military standoff in Ukraine drags on and on and weapons deployed become increasingly deadly and destructive in a slow 'n steady arms race. 
 
Under that scenario, the USA remains the 'safe haven' of choice for mobile global capital and relative US dollar declines will remain muted.
 


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