Re: To Ken Levine re:recession risks
As posted at Energy:
>>(1959, 1969, 1980 Part 2, 1989, 2000, and 2006) all saw stock prices trough long after the Final rate hike... The average market price trough for those 6 periods came a full 21 months after the last rate hike. Keith McCullough
I'd be interested in how commodities performed. The problem is most of us here are interested in energy/commodities, and these market analysts focus on the S&P. With Stockcharts I can only see back to 2009 when doing SPY:$CRB, but from that I can see the SPY against this commodities index is close to all-time highs, which peaked in early 2020, and stayed mostly flat until 2022.
If this SPY:$CRB ratio continues to fall, as it has been during the rough periods of 2022, then it has a long way to go, and it's conceivable US general markets can fall while commodities stay flat, go up, or fall less. I haven't looked into it enough. If others have, I'm definitely interested in what the history shows.