No doubt a pool of that size will need a couple of more wells to drain.
But ultimately what will drive the value of the shares are increases in reserve size, not the speed in which the existing reserves are drained.
Both PetroAmerica and Petrominerales were classic examples of companies finding prolific reservoirs that could be drained fast, but despite the crazy ramp up in production the share values were rightfully constrained by the reserves.
What I'm trying to convey is that this discovery is very likely considerably larger than currently estimated. That's my point.
It's a fact that Casc 1ST ended in pay. I've wondered how much further that pay might extend. The graphic provides a possible answer.
The graphic suggests that maybe sheet 4, which is likely all pay like sheets 2 and 3 above it, could extend another 500 to 700 feet. Can't know until they drill, and I don't know how much stock to be put into this representation, but it gives me a better sense of the potential and relative risk. The already large reserves assigned to this discovery could be a lot larger if in fact sheet 4 is entirely high quality pay.
The graphic indicates that test 1 of this well was entirely from the pay in sheet 4. It means that the pay discovered in this zone is high quality.
So sure if nothing else, Cascadura Deep could be used to drain the existing reservoir. In a worst case scenario, it could be simply a development well. But I believe it has an excellent chance of materially increasing the reserves just from sheet 4, before ever getting to the original target zone.
Clearly, I'm feeling like the risk/reward at the moment relative to the stock price is favourable.