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$Colombia and Latin America
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Re: Ad oil price wars Huh, great day to see you - Erik and Mark (HC) - posting here both again in the course of a day:-) Curious how this is being framed or spun as a war (sic) between Russia and Saudi Arabia. Tend to agree, my suspicious disposition a natura would ask why KSA sovereign treasure fund disposed all their position in Tesla by Dec. 2019 on top of Aramco IPO accomplished. KSA had to know Russians weren´t inclined to another production cut, because of whenever OPEC plus made cut NA shalers filled the space, which simply makes no sense. IMO current MBS´s timing for flooding the market is much better than in 2014/2015 - lesser hedges ( often three collars) and at worse pricing levels than previously, almost all sweet spot/1st tier drill sites drilled... and financing for shalers much worse accessible from banksters nad from equity stakeholders too. April is time for RBF re-determinations - KSA should keep their strategy for a couple months, thereafter Colombian peers should/could appears very attractive. Russians - and me too - dislike oil prices at US60 plus. For PXT/GPRK guys suffice 50 bucks per bbl:-) OPEC has never been able to prevent oil prices from going where they want to go. OPEC has only had some success stabilizing oil prices for periods of time. We discussed it on several occasions, Erik, you know I disagree - whenever KSA has 2-3MMbbl per day of production off-line, I believe they are able to influence oil prices significantly. And they showed it again. And not counting another OPEC members offline production - especially Iran/Venezuela... Sub-US$30/bbl oil (Brent) for any length of time will hammer North American unconventional producers and many offshore ventures. That will make it much easier for oil to move back to US$70/bbl once the current pandemic is over. Cardinal question how long will USA fight with Corona - it could/should have impact on presidential elections too, so far many many variables to be in positive mode... |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
12250 | Re: Ad oil price wars | The Red | 1 | 4/2/2020 10:54:23 AM |