For discussion: http://hussmanfunds.com/wmc/wmc170508.htm
The whole article is worth reading, but here is the conclusion:
"Given low option premiums, along with extreme valuations, interest rates above the zero-bound, and market internals showing continued dispersion, patient investors who can tolerate the potential risk of a slow and annoying drip of option decay over a shorter segment of the market cycle could also see asymmetrically large returns from tail-risk hedges as the market cycle is completed. That kind of position always has to be limited to a small percentage of assets, and should be limited mainly to conditions that join unfavorable valuations and internal dispersion. In the face of marginal new highs, it's also a reasonable concession to be slow about raising strike prices, since the main object of interest is the 50-60% gap from current valuations to historical norms. As a side note, yes, we did see "Hindenburg" on Thursday, so last week's high was sloppy internally, but we can't rule-out further short-term upside..
My short positions with itm puts continue to (mostly) work, I closed most of my KSS at profits of around 18% and added to my GME puts. Tomorrow I'll be watching JCP, and next week it will be TGT and SPLS. It looks like I'll lose, big, on the W puts and have to pay better attention to how much capital I put into each trade (and my rules - W isn't bricks and mortar so why exactly did I feel so confident that it would fail?). But I like very much that by making specific short bets I'm also positioning myself to make money in a general sell off. I've never been this bearish about the market and I'm having trouble sorting out how much is legitimate analysis and how much is political fear/anger. And even if the worst of the allegations are true - even if our POTUS colluded with Russia and is only concerned with Trump profits AND he's impeached or resigns...so what? Will TSLA sell fewer cars, will the Chinese stop bidding up our real estate, will new drug development cease?