Investors are back from an American long weekend and are likely going to be making up for lost volume. North American equity futures edged lower as European shares traded relatively flat. Yields moved higher by +33 bps while the DXY index extended its losses into this week. Crude oil futures fell as uncertainty remains over an elusive OPEC+ output cut deal. Gold and silver also slipped, with notable gains in copper and aluminum contracts.
Still, this November is poised to be one of the best months for the equity markets in a long time (with the caveat there is still one day of trading to go). The TSX is up about 12%, which would rank this month as the 15th
best dating back to the 1919. That is impressive and many other markets experienced a similar rally. What makes this even more notable is the environment. Usually these HUGE up months come after HUGE down months. Such as March’s 18% drop was followed by April’s 10% advance. And while markets were a bit weak in September/October, it wasn’t a big sell-off. One month left in this crazy year for the markets.
The big news headline this morning on the corporate front comes from S&P Global, who announced yesterday evening that it will be purchasing competitor IHS Markit in an all-stock deal at a valuation of ~US$44bn. If the deal is consummated, this would mark this year’s second largest transaction.
Overseas, China posted its manufacturing purchasing managers survey report which came in better than forecast. The economic data out of Asia has been improving more so than many more developed economies which are starting to experience a new wave of lockdowns. It is worth pointing out that spending patterns have migrated to more durable manufactured goods and less services. Services includes eating out, travel, etc. Now, most developed nations have a proportionately larger services component vs manufacturing component compared to many developing nations. Given how the pandemic has changed spending patterns, it would appear the economic mix of many developing nations may have an edge.
Back home, The Canadian government is expected to announce new rounds of stimulus and support today. Consensus has top-ups for existing support programs for businesses and individuals plus new spending on infrastructure, daycare and clean tech. With estimates of a $400B deficit, Canada is gaining the reputation as being the spendiest in counteracting the economic impacts of the pandemic. This size deficit would represent about 18% of total GDP.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau pushed back against critics of his government's COVID-19 vaccination plan with assurances most Canadians would be inoculated by September 2021
. The emphasis for the rollout would be a balance between safety and speed. Ottawa has finalized agreements with five vaccine makers and is in advanced negotiations with two more. We’ll have to now wait and see just how many people decide to take the vaccine. Anecdotally, we often hear that most are willing, however they don’t’ want to be first in line. The deals would secure 194 million doses with the option to buy another 220 million. It seems a little overboard, considering Canada only has 38 million people.
Have you online shopped until you’ve dropped yet? Shopify announced Saturday that Black Friday sales were up 75% year-over-year
, hitting $2.4 billion from its independent and direct-to-consumer brands. Last year, Black Friday accounted for more than 80% of the sales for the holiday shopping weekend for many of their merchants. As you likely know, it’s more of a Black Friday week and weekend than just one day and today is Cyber Monday, so the sales just keep rolling in. Here’s a few select highlights of the biggest shopping day in North America. We can’t say the world, as Singles Day in China now has that crown.
Diversion: FedEx is testing out electric cargo bikes
- $2.4 billion in Black Friday sales globally, a 75% growth in sales from last year
- New York, London, and Los Angeles were the top-selling cities worldwide on Black Friday, with top-selling countries including US, UK, and Canada
- Mobile sales on Black Friday were 67% compared to 33% of sales made on desktop. In 2019, 69% of Black Friday sales were made on mobile and 31% on desktop
- Top product categories globally during Black Friday were apparel and accessories with health and beauty and home and garden following
- Average Black Friday cart price globally was $90.70, an increase of 11% from last year
in Toronto. They're a mix of ice cream bikes + EV hype. Weird time to do so given the Winter season ahead.