The big debate last night was a raucous affair
with no shortage of name calling and personal jabs. At times it was as if we were watching schoolboys argue over who had the best Pokémon cards, not debate over who deserved the most powerful office in the world. As we pointed out yesterday, we doubt the performance will swing any voters. But Trump's refusal to soften his stance on a contested election scenario appears to have spooked investors. Markets are poised to drop following the debate, though to put all the blame it might be a stretch.
Perhaps news of Disney cutting 28,000 jobs has something to do with reigniting fears that this recession is far from over. Though 67% of the works are part-time, it’s one of the biggest layoffs of the covid era. Disney’s announcement could signal more challenges in the labor market’s recovery, with analysts already expecting Friday’s jobs report to show moderation in September’s gains compared with August.
Doh! ISM Chicago has inadvertently published the results of the September survey early. They were supposed to come out at 9:45 this morning, but someone jumped the gun. Good news though. The PMI numbers crushed estimates and rose to 62.4. The biggest three month improvement on record for that gauge of manufacturing activity.
On the stimulus front, Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi are expected to talk again today despite skepticism on Capitol Hill that a deal is possible at this stage.
The U.S. Dollar rebounding after two big down days. The DXY Index is back up over 94, over two full points above the lows set on September 2nd
. Which not surprisingly coincided with the recent market peak. Some say nothing is certain in life except for death and taxes. Perhaps a negative correlation between the stock market and the U.S. dollar should be added to that list.
Loonies are struggling to find much of a bid this morning despite the dollar weakness. FX traders may be looking for clues from the commodity markets which continue to struggle to find their step after the recent slide. The deflation trade is back on for the moment, as concerns over continued economic strength mount.
Times are continuing to be tough in Venezuela as a refiner in India, Reliance Industries Ltd, secured a deal to purchase 2 million barrels/month of heavy Canadian oil for the next 6 months
. Normally those oil exports would be coming from Venezuela, as they are the third largest supplier to Reliance. The US sanctions on Venezuela have made this environment very challenging for them to operate in. However, rightfully so, with the suspicion of corruption by President Nicolas Maduro. Trump has now zeroed in on Venezuela’s pivot to crude-diesel swaps with Asia and Europe. Ending the swaps could result in a large increase to the already ongoing humanitarian crisis caused by lack of fuel.
Amid growing coronavirus cases Quebec is ordering a 28 day shutdown for restaurants. The move has surprised restaurateurs who continue to struggle
. Authorities moved Montreal and Quebec City to the highest COVID-19 alert level, banning private indoor gatherings and shutting bars, cinemas and restaurant dining rooms for 28 days. Here we go again.Diversion:
Bikes had a 121% spike in demand during the pandemic – check out
how these American shops kept up with demand.