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Msg  67668 of 67885  at  7/3/2020 11:26:26 AM  by

carswell


The Launch Pad


Daily market commentary
The Launch Pad
July 3, 2020
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Today

It’s a quiet sunny morning as U.S. investors take the day off ahead of Independence Day. Both S&P 500 and TSX futures were practically flat. European markets edged lower as an observed surge in cases across the globe somewhat eroded risk appetite. Asia posted modest gains overnight, tracking yesterday’s advance in North America. The U.S. dollar, meanwhile, is heading towards its first weekly decline in a month. Oil is down and gold held steady.

There have been a number of long-term investors who have opined that this market has lost any fundamental sense and now just reacts to monetary stimulus. We would certainly agree to an extent, the value added from getting the macro tea leaves correct over the past decade has probably outsized the value of a good discounted cashflow model. This has become even more evident in 2020. Rules that have worked in the past don’t seem to hold up these days. Take for instance investor sentiment. Normally when investor sentiment is very low, as in there are more bearish investors than bullish, markets are near their lows. And when too many are bullish with few bears, markets are nearer their highs. A good contrarian indicator. Today, many more are bearish (46%) compared to bulls (22%). With a spread this wide, the average forward return for the S&P 500 is +2.0% for the next month, compared to an average of +0.6%. However, usually investors are bearish after a market drop, and this market is once again getting closer to that 3,200 level. Maybe sentiment doesn't work either during this unique time.

On the virus front, America appears poised to continue tightening lockdown measures as new infections continue to rise. In Texas, citizens will now have to wear face masks in public. Despite the new initiatives from individual states, Trump seems unnerved. The President will hold a fireworks celebration at Mount Rushmore today, wherein attendees won’t be socially distancing or be required to don PPE. In vaccine news, the street is moving some bets to larger pharmaceutical companies with larger manufacturing capabilities. Smaller players like Moderna and Inovio ended down -4% and -25% respectively after failing to follow up with their promising early testing data.

Over the past few months, we’ve seen quite a few capital markets groups wind down desks as competitive pressures and fee compression make it harder to stay afloat. HSBC’s industrial metals desk now joins the fold – a move which will likely cut 35,000 jobs. The bank was a small player in this sector and had exited the business prior in 2005 but had re-entered in recent years. Returns are hard to come by, a fact that they conceded to. In April, Scotiabank had shuttered its metals business as well.

In Canadian energy news, the Supreme Court of Canada recently rejected appeals to halt Trans Mountain’s expansion. Trans Mountain Corp. made clear yesterday of its intentions to continue working on the project, which has been under construction for several months now. Three B.C. indigenous groups have vowed to keep fighting the project expansion despite the Court’s latest move.

According to figures released yesterday by Statistics Canada, exports rose 6.7% in May – the largest one-month percentage gain in over six years – while imports fell 3.9%, narrowing the trade gap to C$677 million. The median estimate of economists called for a C$3 billion gap in May, which just goes to show how impressive this recent economic growth period has been. Eight of eleven sectors recorded export gains in May with motor vehicles (+ 76.2%), energy products (+ 14.5%) and consumer goods (+ 9.5%) leading the way. Although this is great news, we are on course for a bumpy recovery ahead. Overall Canadian trade activity is still down by roughly one-third YTD and with US infection numbers steadily rising, the stability of these trade figures will remain in question.

Though this isn't any market news by any means, it's just a fun fact. On this day in 1884, the Dow Jones published its first stock index: the Down Jones Transportation Average. It's a great fact to take to your next date, patio meet up, or cocktail party. You're welcome.


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Company news

The popular app TikTok has been banned in India. The Beijing base company is stuck in the middle of a privacy battle. The Indian government has concerns that user data could be shared with the Chinese government. Kinaxis surged to a record high yesterday after closing a deal to buy Rubikloud Technologies. The company help manage supply chain, which is a problem for many companies amid the pandemic. The Chief Investment Officer at Fiera Capital is stepping down after 16 years. This comes amid larger structural changes. Canada’s top court rejected a First Nations appeal of the Trans Mountain pipeline. This was one of the last remaining avenues to block the construction of the $12.6bb project.

Commodities

The fragile U.S. economy is the main reason for the pullback in oil this morning. On this American holiday, NYM WTI futures are down -1.18% to US$40.17/bbl. ICE Brent Crude futures are down -1.23% to US$42.61/bbl. As coronavirus continues to surge in the U.S. to record daily levels, the demand for oil has the potential to suffer. While there have been some positives this week, lower supply and global economic recovery, the virus continues to strike fear into the demand side. Any progress the U.S. made is at risk of being completely undone due to the urgency of restarting the economy.

Gold spot is remaining fairly steady once again this morning. The yellow metal is up. +.04% to US$1,775.92/oz. Positive economic data globally has been countered by the increase in U.S. virus cases. Therefore, gold seems to be stuck in a range this morning, but remains supported. In other commodity news, with coronavirus surging in South America, Chile’s copper production is at risk. Mining accounts for 15% of Chile’s GDP and half of their exports. Chile believes they will see a reduction of about 320,000 tonnes for 2020 estimates but will need to revise daily.


Fixed income and economics

Canadian government bonds are slightly better bid to start the day, recovering some of yesterday’s losses after the stronger than expected US employment report. Although an increase of 4.8 million jobs is impressive, and 1.6 million more than consensus forecasts were calling for, the fact is the US unemployment rate remains at 11.1%, and we did see a decline in average hourly earnings on a month-over-month basis. Hence, the reaction in bond markets overall was fairly subdued – longer term yields did end the week slightly higher, and the curve steeper, but overall Treasury yields have remained in the range that has held for the past two months.

Today we expect a very quiet session, with US markets closed, and no domestic data to contend with. Of note in credit markets, Nissan Motor Co.’s long-term credit rating was cut to BBB- from BBB, just one level above junk, by S&P Global Ratings (S&P). According to S&P, the automaker’s profitability faces greater downward pressure than its peers in the next one to two years, as the Covid-19 crisis has made its business conditions tough in its main markets, and planned restructuring will create a cost burden. Spreads on Nissan’s outstanding issues are little changed, as the rating had been under review for downgrade, but continue to trade wide, notably with their Canadian dollar 2.606% 5-Mar-2021 issue currently offered at 99.58/3.25%.

Chart of the day

Markets

Quote of the day

If you're afraid of losing, then you daren't win.

- Björn Borg

 


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