Dennis da Silva's Top Picks: Cenovus, Keyera and North American Palladium
The Fed decided not to cut rates but indicated that it would do so if needed, helping to drive U.S. markets to all-time highs. We remain optimistic, but we acknowledge that there are multiple risks on the horizon: First, the U.S. and China are still far from reaching an agreement that would remove existing tariffs. Second, global economic data has not been good. Third, we’re about to begin a critical earnings season.
Crude prices gained momentum on the back of rising geopolitical risk, with oil tankers and critical energy infrastructure being targeted in the Middle East amid a deepening security crisis over Iran. The extension of OPEC cuts should provide a floor price of US$50 per barrel, while U.S. production growth in the second half of 2019 limits price upside to the low US$60s.
The outlook for gold has improved on the back of increased global trade war tensions and a significant shift in U.S. Fed rate change expectations. We’re looking for gold prices to trend to the upper end of our range of US$1,300-US$1,500 per ounce. We continue to see no signs of rate hikes over the next couple of years, and historically have seen gold continue on an upward trajectory beyond the last rate cut.