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MARKET OUTLOOK A word of caution for U.S. equity markets during the next two weeks! Historically, U.S. equity markets have moved lower during the three-week period prior to the release of third-quarter results. Analysts frequently overestimate annual results in the first half and adjust estimates prior to the release of these earnings reports. This year, analysts have a good excuse for lowering estimates: The impacts of Hurricanes Harvey and Irma are not fully known to date. As they become known, companies will lower guidance and analyst estimates will come down.
U.S. equity markets are anticipating a strong increase in third-quarter earnings on a year-over-year basis. However, analyst third-quarter consensus estimates currently call for an average (median) increase in third-quarter earnings by Dow Jones Industrial companies of only 3.9 per cent: 10 companies are expected to report lower earnings, three companies are expected to report no change and 17 companies are expected to report higher earnings.
Third-quarter earnings prospects for TSX 60 companies are more encouraging. Consensus shows an average (median) year-over-year gain of 4.8 per cent. The strongest gains are expected to be recorded by the energy sector.
Paul Harris' Top Picks: Bank of America, Cenovus Energy, Inter Pipline
BNN.ca Staff
MARKET OUTLOOK
The global economy continues to see some real improvements. Economic data continues to improve, for example, the ISM index is expanding, we have seen positive readings in retail sales, industrial production, and the job market and Consumer and small business confidence is also up. We are seeing strong earnings growth and topline revenue growth and not the deterioration in margins that some have been expecting. As a result, many of the central banks around the world are looking to slow QE or increase rates. However, we believe we will see low inflation and low interest rates for some time as central banks will not want to run the risk of pushing the economy into a recession.