$PEAK - Benchmark oil price volatility - $PEAK - InvestorVillage


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Msg  63747 of 64030  at  12/1/2023 3:01:58 AM  by

The Red


 In response to msg 63746 by  Dave4444
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Re: Benchmark oil price volatility

I see consecutive OPEC+ production cut announcements as bearish. Despite near term uncertainty, I'm still bullish on o&g mid-term.

Holding dividend payers is good, especially if near-term exploration success is likely (PXT). I would also add that companies with increasingly attractive balance sheets are likely reasonably safe holds (CVE, VET).
 
Banks.  Like banks but think we could see more share price weakness in the upcoming month as higher for longer real borrowing costs start to sink in and impact consumer budgets.
 
Big fan of Canadian cash ETF CASH.to (hat tip to a buddy at Edward Jones!). Also like US treasury options enhanced ETF HPYT.to sporting a 15% yield but that one obviously carries a little more risk.

Still believe that regulated oligopolies paying juicy dividends are a good bet, e.g.,   BCE, ENB, especially now that Canadian and US 10-year bond yields have backed off considerably.   
 
Gordon Pape had a good piece on pipelines the other day in the G&M and recommended Pembina and TC Energy for total return.   I like pipeline major Enbridge (just raised the dividend by 3%) because I want the 7 1/2 to 8%+ dividend yield and am reasonably sure the dividend won't get cut.

There are a few year-end/tax loss season deals out there and on my watch list.   Notably many in the junior resource exploration playground.   In that regard, I have developed new criteria:  The Dave #3 rule.   If Dave was gushing about the play when the share price was 70 to 80% higher, it is probably a pretty safe albeit still speculative bet.   I'd share folks but then I would have to tie y'all up with an old wool sock stuffed in your mouth as I might still be buying.  ;-)
 
 The one asset class I see negatively going forward is gold.   Higher real borrowing rates for longer do not bode well.  The worst of the foreign policy disasters in Ukraine and Gaza appear to be behind us (though there could always be surprises).  Yes, 10 year yields are declining but so is inflation.  Coincident indicators hint at a slowing economy yield curves have flattened but are still inverted.  


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