So yes that drop from a 700 bopd Ip to a 180 bopd first month average would indicate an ultimate cumulative production somewhere between 30,000 barrels of oil on the low side to maybe 70,000 barrels on the high side perhaps?
I didn't know you could put so much weight on an IP and the ensuing decline over the first few days. Perhaps I am wrong in my understanding but I thought that until the well hit the boundary the decline told you nothing about the eventual reserves? I would have thought that until we had more data points we couldn't make much of a guess as to the eventual reserves and that the first day IP was telling you more about the success of the frac then anything else. Is this wrong?
The first month rate of 180bbl/d seems consistent with the NAL curve they have been anticipating at Garrington. We'll have to see how it progresses going forward.