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Positive Milvexian Nugget from Bernstein Fireside Chat with GC and SHThe highly anticipated Phase II Milvexian Factor X1a SSP data is now in-house. Consistent with BMY and most large biopharma practice, the data will be disclosed at an appropriate medical/scientific meeting, however, commentary included that there is sufficient information from SSP and previously disclosed TKR study to design Phase III strategy with partner Janssen with no further details about indications at this juncture. Note the thesis for Citi raising BMY PT to 90 was based on enthusiasm for Factor XII.
Re: Bristol-Myers price target raised to $90 from $75 at CitiCiti - BMY: Milvexian and More. Doubling Estimates, PT to $90. Remain BuyCITI'S TAKE We have increased our estimate for BMY’s share of risk-adjusted milvexian revenues to c.$6.5bn vs c.$2bn captured in consensus forecasts. We refer readers to today’s Deep Dive companion report (Factor XI Inhibitors. The Largest and Broadest Commercial Opportunity Since PD1/ Cancer Immunotherapy), reflecting the risk and commercial opportunities in 13 separate indications. We expect potential approval for the first indication as early as 2026/2027. We expect phase II AXIOMATIC-SSP data at ESC to reassure on bleeding risk, but the efficacy signal could underwhelm. We have increased our non-GAAP EPS forecasts up to 40% in 2035. The c.$8/share NPV for milvexian reflects c.8% of our new DCF derived TP (vs our prior PT of $75). We prefer Buy-rated ABBV, LLY, and BMY in the US; AZN, BAYN, ROG, NVO in EU. What’s new? — BMY’s single digit multiple made it one of the key beneficiaries of the recent sector rotation despite the post 2026 headwinds from Eliquis, Opdivo, Revlimid, and Pomalyst loss of exclusivity. While near term the stock looks ripe for profit taking, we believe that the outsized long term potential of milvexian (blood thinner) supports higher valuations for long term investors, assuming phase II AXIOMATIC-SSP data is supportive for bleeding risk. The efficacy signal in the phase II could prove modest given (i) plaque positive patients (different from BAYN’s PACIFIC-STROKE trial) (ii) dual antiplatelet background therapy. Outside milvexian, we continue to anticipate approval of deucravacitinib for psoriasis by the FDA in September, with a label that includes warnings over adverse events associated with approved JAK inhibitors but without the requirement for a step edit. We look forward to seeing the phase II deucravacitinib Lupus data at the EULAR conference in July. The detail — Today’s companion Deep Dive is the first detailed analysis of (i) forthcoming phase II data, (ii) potential indications and phase IIII trial design, and (iii) commercial opportunity and proprietary patient for both oral agents (BMY/JNJ’s milvexian and Bayer’s asundexian) as well as injectable MRK’s MK-2060 and Anthos’ abelacimab. We anticipate that forthcoming AXIOMATIC-SSP will demonstrate that no increase in major or clinically relevant non major bleeding when co-administered with dual anti-platelet therapy. Assuming data is supportive, we anticipate BMY and JNJ to initiate a broad trial program encompassing SSP, ESRD, SPAF, ACS, and CAD/PAD among others, involving >50k patients over 4-5 years. |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
9792 | Re: Positive Milvexian Nugget from Bernstein Fireside Chat with GC and SH | al monte | 1 | 6/2/2022 11:18:29 AM |