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The Clown Show: trade biotechs & more
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Cathie Wood-ARKK: Year in Review/ThoughtsCathie Wood's main investment vehicle ARKK hit a pps of 159.70 on Feb 16th of last year. Today it is at 85.36! Sometime early last year I posted about the issues with her and her funds. As I then posted, she had been fired from my brother's money management firm (actually by my brother, who was the CFO) for poor stock picking performance. After having lunch with her and other elders who tried to give her advice, he and others suggested shorting the stock. One of them did publicly announce a short position. After my gut wrenching short in AMZN many years ago, I have only shorted very short term and could not follow the idea. To analyze her problem it is simply that she is by training an economist and invests based on her economic view. Economist, like her, can be right often and have a great run (like she did in 2020-early 2021), but need to have some mechanism to realize when the World is changing. She does not and stubbornly sticks to her idea. Her current major call has been that oil would remain benign and never get above 60; that inflation would also remain muted; that the FED would continue its programs and keep interest rates absurdly low and therefore buy hyper growth stocks with little or no earnings. Now she has been sensible pruning TSLA, but then buying Chinese Firms (JD, NIO) and many NAS COMP High Flyers (ROKU). One of my main themes is that markets always change and what works stops working. It is impossible to really know when this will happen, but it will. Either you change with the market or you become extinct. Hopefully she will change her thinking or it is possible that the FED panics when the market tanks and reverses policy and her bets pay off. I do not invest long term for I know that knowing if that occurs or not is not my strength. Good luck |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
51940 | Re: Cathie Wood-ARKK: Year in Review/Thoughts | Glenntrader | 3 | 1/6/2022 5:40:39 AM |
51943 | Re: Cathie Wood-ARKK: Year in Review/Thoughts | Dirty Harry | 0 | 1/6/2022 8:24:28 AM |