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Seeking Alpha news article: H.C. Wainwright issues note saying Novavax can target over $2B annual sales with COVID-flu vaccine comboNanoflu will probably sell for about $40, and in the commercial market, Covid vaccines are expected to sell for between $40 and $60 for single variant doses. So whoever is first to market with a combo vaccine will probably be able to charge at least $90 to $100, and quite possibly a premium for being the only player. Even if there are eventually several combo options available, I think they will still go for about $60 to $70. The highest efficacy ones might be $80 to $90, and the lower quality ones maybe $40 to $50. But even if high quality ones like Novavax only get $50, it only takes 40 million doses to reach $2 billion in revenues. At $90, it only takes 22.3m doses to reach $2 billion in revenues. Of those 141.1m people, what % of them do you estimate will get both at once versus get two different needles stuck in their arms, with probably roughly double the amount of total side effects? And what if the combo option has the best flu vaccine and the best Covid vaccine? If the answer is half, that's 70.55 million doses. If the answer is 40%, it's 56.44m doses. If it's only 30%, it's 42.33m doses. If it's as low as 20%, it's 28.22m doses per year. The EU is 50% bigger than the US. Then add in Canada, Japan, the UK, Australia, New Zealand, Switzerland, the UAE, Singapore, Korea, Taiwan and other high-income countries. Then add in the middle-income countries and then also the low-income countries. As a rule of thumb, for Covid vaccines and combo Covid vaccines, total global revenues will probably be about 7 to 8 times the size of US revenues. Maybe as low as 5 or 6 or as high as 10. So multiply the numbers above times about 7 or 8. Then multiply total doses times price per dose. Here are a few combos of the above to calculate market size, and of course feel free to do your own: Only 30% of people getting both doses opt for a single shot instead of two separate shots: 42.33m doses in the US x $60 = $2.54b US revenues x 5 = $12.70b 42.33m doses in the US x $60 = $2.54b US revenues x 7 = $17.78b 42.33m doses in the US x $70 = $2.96b US revenues x 5 = $14.80b 42.33m doses in the US x $70 = $2.96b US revenues x 7 = $20.72b 42.33m doses in the US x $80 = $3.39b US revenues x 5 = $16.95b 42.33m doses in the US x $80 = $3.39b US revenues x 7 = $23.73b 42.33m doses in the US x $90 = $3.81b US revenues x 5 = $19.05b 42.33m doses in the US x $90 = $3.81b US revenues x 7 = $26.67b Even if it had no other products and thus there was a 50% likelihood of a 100% loss if the combo vaccine somehow totally failed, the average of a 100% loss and 500% gain is a 200% gain over the course of a 3 year period. That's a gain of about 67% per year if half the time the bet failed and half the time it paid off. Commenting on the initial Phase 1/2 data released by Novavax (NASDAQ:NVAX) on Wednesday for its COVID-19-Influenza combination vaccine, H.C. Wainwright estimates that the company can target a market opportunity worth over $2 billion in annual sales with the protein-based shot. The data announced at the World Vaccine Congress (WVC) in Washington, DC., showed that the experimental vaccine, combining Novavax' (NVAX) COVID-19 vaccine, NVX-CoV2373 and its quadrivalent influenza vaccine candidate, was well-tolerated and immunogenic, according to the company. “We see these results as a win-win for both the continued need for COVID-19 boosters and seasonal influenza,” the analyst Vernon Bernardino wrote, citing the unaddressed medical need, particularly among the elderly due to efficacy limits of current flu shots despite high vaccination rates. According to the analyst, the CIC vaccine demonstrated a better immune response compared to the Fluzone High-Dose (HD), the market-leading seasonal flu shot developed by Sanofi (SNY) (OTCPK:SNYNF). Citing the pre-pandemic sales of Sanofi’s (SNY) flu vaccines, Flublok, and Fluzone in 2019, the analyst predicts that the CIC vaccine can reach a blockbuster market opportunity worth over $2B in annual sales. Without counting any contribution to the firm’s valuation model, H.C. Wainwright reiterates the Buy rating and $207 per share target on Novavax (NVAX). Last year, early-stage data released by rival vaccine developer Moderna (MRNA) for its quadrivalent seasonal flu vaccine candidate, mRNA-1010, trailed expectations. The Cambridge, Massachusetts-based biotech has also added a vaccine candidate that combines its mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine and flu vaccine candidate. |
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Msg # | Subject | Author | Recs | Date Posted |
175923 | Re: Seeking Alpha news article: H.C. Wainwright issues note saying Novavax can target over $2B annual sales with COVID-flu vaccine combo | TheMatrix | 0 | 4/21/2022 1:10:41 PM |