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Tominersen failure triple whammy for PCTC? So the PTCT pct518 looked like it could be the winner in getting a successful HD treatment since should have great biodistribution including lowering mutant huningtun needed deep brain structures. So PTC518 first went from not getting value, then analyst note jumed in with upgrade saying PTCT not getting any credit for HD drug that could be big, and then became complete positive obsession with an entire quarterly CC most questions about HD drug and positive things from analysts. Then failure of Roche/IONS HD drug hit PTCT stock but still left the increased chances for HD PTC518 since still that biodistrution advantage, gets to deep brain structures. So now Roche gave details on why Tominersen failed, and the interpretation as noted by an analyst, was in fact that not only was inadequate biodistribution not the problem but even said if had a biodistribution problem, the Tominersen results would have even been better, not worse than result, so bio distribution was in fact not the problem, thus the assumption biodistribution advantage with PTC518 would not lead to better result. S a big part of the current hit on PTCT stock was now looked less likely to succeed. Then it became a triple whammy because if Roche though PTC518 would be successful, and they also had seen the big oral splicing success with Evrysdi would make it compelling for Roche to buy PTCT at very big premium, as they would not only get PTC518, the while oral splicing platform and the other platforms and drugs including some gene therapy and bio-E platform and would give two shots at FTD, AADC GT, the PKU drug company PTC reently acquired and other potential drugs developed for other neuro degenerative. But most compelling is Roche would no longer have to pay royalties to PTC for risdiplam/evrysdi. An acquisition of PTCT by Roche could go for than double the stock of PTCT which now has a puny market cap of a bit over 3B. So I still think will have gains especially after this HD stock crush to 52 week low if HD now discounted but it's overdone. Still multiple platforms, still sell sells their Duichenes drug ROW, still sells "Tegsedi and Waylivra south of the border and again jus the proven successful oral splicing platform oer risdiplam, the stock price is just ridiculous IMO. The Bio-e platform they acquired has many potential indications that can be lucrative. |
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