On Monday, we saw the first press release where Management has started to be a little more honest about production costs.  

http://www1.investorvillage.com/smbd.asp?mb=9985&mn=1310&pt=msg&mid=2609121

This has been a huge victory for us small shareholders.  I think it’s in direct response to all of the noise we have been making.  The shareholder website raises this exact issue as a strong indicator of “down play”.

OK, so now it seems more possible that many of my charges were (more likely to be) true.

So you're going to turn around and believe this newer set of numbers?

There have been figures as high as 18 million pounds annual copper production quoted at various times.   The more common figure quoted by (CCH and NWI) Management has been 16 million pounds (just from Corner Bay).  How does the company get away with whacking it down to 14 million?

And the $1.09 cost number is still high.  And the ore grade they say they will mine is low – it’s lower than most of the resource.

So as much as I love your figures (because they are profitable), lets not be so quick to believe the newer numbers.  I still think Corner Bay will have costs below $1.00 per pound – could be as low as 75 cents, or even lower.  People have to understand the impact of having grades this high.

Would anyone like to do some research on the production costs for some Quebec competitors?  Let’s look at their costs, and their ore grade.  And remember that CB is a shallow deposit (lower costs right there).

Copper Rand has been through the “disinformation wringer” too (in my opinion).  I like going back to their 2004 slide show (you can find the slideshow on the shareholder website in the FILES subdirectory.

Back in 2004, Management was promising 18 million pounds copper (yes that’s the same number as the Corner Bay number I mentioned above).  They were also promising 50,000 ounces of gold per year (gold at zero cost).  Mine amortization can be modeled as coming out of the copper total sale proceed.

Mr. Fortier has been working overtime trying to convince the whole world that [paraphrase] “they were just joking” when they targeted 50,000 ounces – it’s simply not possible.  The Prospectus had it down to (I think) 26,000 ounces gold per year.  But the Prospectus was written from an extremely conservative angle.

It sure is amazing how all this gold production potential just evaporates when someone is (apparently) trying to down play things.  Don’t forget that the new Copper Rand ramp and the fully implemented Alimak Mining system are supposed to increases production efficiency, not decrease it. 

And with higher metal prices, Engineers can use a higher cut-off grade.  The Prospectus used a ridiculously low estimate for metal prices..

All of this points to production that will meet or exceed early estimates.   If you want down play, you know where to find it.

I stand by my number of greater than $50 million in earnings (not gross metal sales), just from Copper Rand, once it’s at full production.  If they can get 50,000 ounces of gold, that’s around $35 million right there.