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Msg  275444 of 438808  at  5/13/2009 10:29:23 AM  by

SaulK


Best advice

I know a lot of people who post here are traders (or should I say, Try to be traders--sorry, I know I've posted many times my bias that traders lose money and only investors do well long term) and with my bias aside I know I have to live with the traders obsessing about the daily share price.

However, I'd like to address my best advice to those here who are long term INVESTORS.

Resist the urge to obsess.

I've been reading books about Amgen lately--if everyone's fabled model is Amgen, doesn't it make sense to study its history?--and the parallels are really encouraging. When Epogen, Amgen's initial blockbuster was approved by the FDA its second drug, Neupogen was just entering phase 1/2 trials. Amgen had less cash on hand than Dendreon at this stage. Most importantly Amgen followed its science--not the marketplace--in determining its product emphasis. And had a gutsy CEO who was determined to make something big--not just sell out after initial success.

Epogen's bucks financed the rest. Follow on products that eventually led to a 10 Billion dollar annual revenue stream and a split adjusted share price close to 1000. Market cap of 80 Billion.

Dendreon owns ALL of a breakthrough platform for the treatment of multiple cancers. It is going to have the first approved active immunotherapy for cancer--that has been a HOLY GRAIL of cancer treatment for decades and--HELLO!--they've done it!

So who cares what is max pain for Friday? Who cares if the pps was 21 yesterday and touched 19 and change today?

Amgen wasn't built in a day. The world needs to get to know the story that there's been a breakthrough in cancer--and get to believe its ears--to quiet its disbelief that something that good could have happened. Skepticism reigns and that's just the way it is, but with time and approval and proof in the cancer stricken men in the real world the world will come around to understanding how monumental Dendreon's achievement is.

And we sit here the lucky few, we band of brothers (and sisters) who researched it and knew it and believed in it--and lived through the heart break of the struggle these past 4 years--and are holding shares in the fabled Next Amgen.

Rest easy. It will happen with time and the courage to resist false bids.


 
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Replies
Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
275449 Re: Best advice yanquitrader 46 5/13/2009 10:37:38 AM
275450 Re: Best advice Abbynormal 15 5/13/2009 10:39:20 AM
275456 Re: Best advice outofsalt 58 5/13/2009 10:49:32 AM
275461 Re: Best advice giannmi 12 5/13/2009 10:59:55 AM
275462 Re: Best advice a_technical_1 5 5/13/2009 11:01:58 AM
275466 Re: Best advice pkram 5 5/13/2009 11:15:55 AM
275468 Re: Best advice AAR 6 5/13/2009 11:16:17 AM
275480 Re: Best advice / Is Saul among the prophets? Reverberator 19 5/13/2009 11:31:56 AM
275487 Re: Best advice 20 yrs later , 2nd chance panamachock 60 5/13/2009 11:45:14 AM
275493 Re: Best advice croumagnon 21 5/13/2009 11:59:28 AM
275505 Re: Best advice nightowl 67 5/13/2009 12:49:39 PM
275533 The Chanting and the Music Are Inspirational caseystarman 46 5/13/2009 2:09:33 PM


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