Here are a few points to consider.

1.  The antigen has already been achieved in commercial quantities by Diosynth, one of the largest producers of such biologic compounds in the world.  Dendreon secured this vendor with a significant deal signed 18 months ago.  You best do some homework on it.

In essense, to keep the costs down, Dendreon at the time gave Diosynth a healthy chunch of stock.

2.  Dendreon's Andy Scherer, vice president of manufacturing, is the former head of DNA's manufacturing division.  He knows how to squeeze nickle and dimes and run under budget.  Manufacturing is a strength and not a weakness.

3.  As I recall, the board ran models and came up with a 55% margin not 20% that you had.

4.  I'm not sure where you are going with the autologous comment.  I do know that with state of the art inventory contol and quality control devices, the heavily patented cassette technology is prepared to run 100,000 volume through per year in New Jersey per shift.  If you look at the recent hiring, Dendreon has been hiring Operations and QA specialists for the second shift.  What does that tell you about Management's belief in the through put volumes?

5.  Well negotiated ROW... that means different things to different people.  Until I hear the details, it is a wild card that the short side is just dismissing so far.

6.  Did you know that Dendreon will have the ability to provide boosters for its clients?  One per year.  Better add that revenue stream to your model.

7.  Did you know that the financial model excludes any wealthy non-US Citizens in the demand for Provenge.  What if you have $100,000 in cash but know that you'll die with in a year or two from Prostate Cancer without Provenge?  I'd venture they will fly to NYC or Chicago or Boston or LA or SF and get their Provenge treatments.  Better add that revenue into your model.

8.  Did you know the the Doc that was the foremost expert on Taxotere publically endorsed Provenge ahead of Taxotere?  This means that the chemo wall trying to block immunology thearapies has crumbled.  You might want to study the volumes of Taxotere patients getting treated.  These could easily be brought into the Provenge loop.

Bottom line...Respectfully for your consideration...

1.  I can come up with more revenues than your business case.
2.  I can argue that the marginal costs within the manufacturing organization will be controlled and managed by a professional, experienced team.
3.  I believe that the real margins are significantly better than your projection.
4.  I believe that the market for Provenge will be much greater than the conservative statistics that most are using.
5.  I believe that the market valuation as a result will be revised upward 2 or 3 rounds by the end of 2007 due to the quicker than expected rollout of the product and the higher than expected demand for Provenge.

I then leave this with you to think about.  Where is the contribution from the ADPC market within your model.  It is 5x greater than the AIPC market.  Yet, with a discounted cash flowing model, you have to start having revenues from this market in year 3.

Again, it comes down to which sets of data the analyst draws from, doesn't it.

For what its worth, my model came up with a Provenge only without ROW Partner, without ADPC revenues of $43 a share.

This was before any booster revenues nor the international volume rushing to DNDN's doorstep.

I hope your reconsider your assumptions, soon.  If not, you might be disappointed with your results.

Fordwill1953