To introduce myself with full disclosure (as this is my first post), let me start by saying that I shorted DNDN via puts yesterday.

I believe a valuation at $2 billion was not warranted for a company that has yet to have a single paying patient. I prefer to stay on the sell side when valuations have exceeded my fair value analysis.

There seems to be a few intelligent people who post here from what I have researched (Rancherho/Walldiver/Tooskook4u/Ocyan). Everyone else doesn't seem to be willing to entertain a healthy debate about the merits of Provenge as a business, which makes sense given your extensive history with the science and being committed to this to the end.

If a debate is allowed without flaming or temper tantrums, please help debunk the following arguments I have against Provenge/Dendreon.

A. As an autologous therapy, won't the operational costs be significantly higher due to patient specific samples? If they plan on charging 'similar to other cancer treatments' and are around the $45,000 per patient, won't margins be significantly lower than other cos with cancer drugs? I've seen a lot of valuations based off revenue streams, but nothing at all concrete regarding operating income, EBITDA, margins, etc.

B. Assuming the FDA approves, and assuming a well negotiated ROW, what type of AIPC market penetration do you think would be required to justify a valuation of $4bn? If margins are significantly lower due to complex distribution, do you think Wall. St. will go with market competitive valuations on revenue?

C. Obviously, you all watched the panel do something that was unprecendented and unique in voting 13-4 for efficacy on a cancer immunotherapy. While history would indicate that the FDA would give approval, certainly there must be a wee bit FUD (as you like to call it) that the FDA can also do something unique in the handling of the final decision.

D. 9902B was the first trial to use supply from the manufacturing facility. If the interim results from 9902B are unsuccessful in accordance with FDA reporting requirements, wouldn't you agree that Provenge would be pulled from market and the antigen cassette technology platform would be forever rendered as unacceptable for future submissions such as Neuvenge that use the same platform?

E. I think the one thing we should certainly agree on is that Mitchell Gold is out of his league. I've researched his history, and I think he's out of his league in terms of running a business.

F. Has anyone seen a single credential on any hired sales managers? While Provenge will 'sell itself' to some, you are investing in a sales team you know nothing about and that which has never sold a cancer immunotherapy. What do you know of their marketing strategies other than dropping a 100 reps around the country to deal with 40,000 individual treatments?? Any complications with the complicated distribution methodology would create operational overhead not built into any valuation models I have seen.

G. A manufacturing facility that has yet to be built out, a marketing team nobody knows yet, an unknown amount of overhead and maintenance and the longs believe this is the next DNA?

My investment methodology is to enter 30% of my position now (i think approval is about 70%) and if the price spikes to continue short efforts as the irrational pricing (anything over $25) I will continue to add to my position.

Out of thousands of biotech stocks, only a couple of dozen will ever hit the valuations that DNDN has. To get to the valuations that many of the longs believe DNDN will achieve after an approval, you need to be well managed. Outside of your CFO, who is accomplished, it's a very unimpressive executive roster. What are the odds that Celgene's lead investigator would have plane troubles getting to a Advisory Committee meeting? That looks like a sign of things to come when it comes down to the nuts and bolts of running a business.

I've been honest about my position and I don't come here looking for fights. I come here to provide an opposing perspective and not hide behind my position.

If one of the more intelligent posters would comment (the ones I named above) that would be appreciative. Perhaps instead of looking at me as someone who is trying to make you sell your shares, you could be people to help me in understanding why I should buy my shares back now.

Thanks in advance.