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Re: New seeking alpha science vs hedgefunds link below - the page which disappeared - READ HEREThe FDA is mandated with protecting the public by a stringent new drug review process. We all hope that FDA is impartial and highly scientific in its approach. After all companies spend hundreds of millions of dollars following scientific protocols, conduct highly scientific trials and analyze data in the utmost scientific way. The aim of science is truth. Science comes from Philosophy which is love of truth. In the dark ages science didn't matter much. We all know the story of Galileo and the consequences of his scientific approach. There are those who believe the FDA is not impartial and is influenced from many directions. There are those who believe it is a completely fair agency. Being a scientist, I approach this question scientifically, which is to try to observe facts and keep beliefs at bay. Dendreon (DNDN) The case of Dendreon is perhaps the most dramatic new drug review case in history. For the first time in its history the FDA went against the vote of its own panel of reviewers and did not approve Provenge first time around. The panel of experts overwhelmingly approved Provenge as a safe and effective therapy for men with advanced prostate cancer but Provenge was a threat to certain parties. Certainly it was a threat to the large short interest, and possibly, as immunotherapy was still very new, a threat to status quo in medicine. What we saw before the FDA AdCom was a relentless level of bashing and negativity from analysts and journalists including Brean Murray's analyst Jonathan Aschoff who admitted to me in a phone conversation that his firm had clients who were short Dendreon. Two doctors in the Adcom were heavily against the approval as I discussed in another Seeking Alpha article. After the strong vote for approval they lobbied the FDA and the FDA denied Provenge approval. Much has been written about allegations of conflict of interest, a legal action followed the vote, and much citizen activism because it was clear to many of us that from a scientific standpoint Provenge works and is safe. Thousands of men died while the FDA sent Dendreon away, only to approve the same drug a couple of years later. Arena (ARNA) The upcoming FDA decision for Arena reminds me of Dendreon's specially with regards to the behavior of short sellers. Both companies have had a very large short interest before the PDUFA dates and similar level of analyst and journalist bashing. Arena bashing has gotten so bad leading to the May 10 Adcom that Adam Feuerstein and TheStreet.com has received a legal threat from a group of Arena shareholders represented by the powerful Michigan attorney, Joseph Dedvukaj:
Feuerstein's credentials for his investment commentary and biotech analysis is a bachelor's in Political Science, and of course, working for Jim Cramer (see quote below). I deeply support this action as I observe that these bashers are out of control and have thought they can "get away with murder" for too long. Also, I have a fundamental issue with the entire Philosophy of Jim Cramer's and his TheStreet.com for a very simple reason: As a human and a student of science and philosophy I am interested in truth but Cramer has no problem resorting to deception and lies to make money. These are Jim Cramer's own words:
Cramer's bashing of Dendreon went as far as him lying that Provenge had flopped. Patrick Byrne, the heroic CEO of Overstock.com (OSTK) is a crusader in the fight against naked short selling. Him and his fellow citizen journalists in Deep Capture, recap the story and what followed:
Chelsea Therapetics (CHTP) and
Neoprobe (NEOP) Another hedge fund manager, Martin Shkreli, who used to work for Cramer responded to my email just before my first article on Arena which many believe prompted a big rally in Arena shares that Arena is a "wildly overvalued stock". Since then the shares have gone up over 50%. So hedge fund managers can be wrong no matter how much of a "fiction", to use Cramer's words, they try to create. Shkreli has been wrong on a number of bets which he vocally supported. When Chelsea Therapeutics International was $5.08 Shkreli predicted a double by year end 2011. CHTP is trading at $2.05! Shkreli had implied he would try to influence FDA against Arena in a tweet. He had tried to influence the FDA before -- his Neoprobe case led to a major complaint being filed against Shkreli by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington). He was proven wrong about NEOP as well when FDA acceptance the Lymphoseek application. These are facts and not speculations that hedge funds try influence the FDA. But it doesn't end there. Avanir (AVNR) As the respected analyst, JMP Securities' Dr. Charles Duncan said in an investor conference recently, Avanir has an approved drug which is a big deal given what a tremendously arduous task it is to get a drug approved. Short sellers bet against Avanir's approval and then against launch and against Avanir's market but they've been consistently wrong. Still the level of distortion, as in "short and distort," is very high and you still see hedge funds trying to make the Cramer type of "fiction." By continually repeating a falsehood it does not become true. The fact is Avanir's revenues have been growing with record sales showing last week, institutional ownership has been growing, and no sign of any dilution in the picture makes life tough for the holders of 25 million shorted shares. Shorts are still repeating their fictitious mantras hoping it manifests a reality which simply is not there. European approval can come as early as this quarter, and I believe a major partnership is in the cards. Lots of catalysts are on the horizon and shorts are simply running out of time. Truth is contradictory with the short-seller's wishful sense of reality. Vivus (VVUS) Vivus' Adcom's overwhelmingly positive vote for Qnexa surprised those who questioned its safety profile. Some investors speculated that Vivus is a favorite for some hedge funds and some politicians. The amount of negativity leading to the Adcom was non existent compared to Dendreon or Arena. Vivus just announced that the FDA will have a three month delay in its decision on Qnexa. This is clearly bad news for Vivus. But Adam Feuerstein published a article calling this bad news good news (talk about making fiction). In fact this bad news for Vivus is good news for Arena, but Adam attacked Arena in the same article, saying this was bad news. I've heard of people who can stand there in sun light saying it's night time, but these people are liars, and I have none as friends. It is disconcerting however, how insignificant truth has become in journalism, but Cramer's quote might explain it perfectly. Of course the logic Adam used to justify his stance is shaky at best. His main reasoning is, if FDA wanted to reject Qnexa it would not have taken more time to look. Many believe this delay is related to demands on restrictions and further studies due to safety concerns. Ron Paul's Take I am not a Ron Paul follower but found his remarks on the FDA very daring and interesting. In an interview he made the accusation that the FDA and Big Pharma 'are in bed together'. Investments and the FDA I am not an investment advisor so please don't follow me and do your own research. For myself, I view my Avanir shares as a safe investment and my Arena shares are a speculative play. I have thought of selling some Avanir to buy more Arena but have not gotten myself to do it because I don't want to take additional risk specially seeing so many sharks and crooks in the game betting against Arena. I don't think the shorts will win but it is an all out war. Letter By FDA Employees This disturbing headline was in the news last week: "FDA 'Corruption' Letter Authenticated: Lawyers, Start Your Engines!"
Can FDA Be Influenced? And just as I was working on this article I read that the husband of Margaret Hamburg, the FDA Commissioner, is a hedge fund boss. Ouch! Given the heavy attacks on Arena from some hedge funds should investors worry? It did spook me a bit when I read this, perhaps unjustifiably. According to a Wall Street Journal blog:
The FDA Commissioner's husband is reportedly an executive at Renaissance Technologies LLC, a hedge fund managing some $23 Billion in assets. More On FDA and Provenge Reflecting on the Provenge story one of the many frustrated folks at FDA's vote against its own Adcom vote wrote in a thread that referred to "Ethics Filings Against Scher, Hussain and Pazdur":
Deep Capture examines FDA's Richard Pazdur's connections deeply, and his friendships with certain lobbyists:
The same article outlines Pazdur's link with Dr. Howard Scher and Dr. Maha Hussain:
If I recall correctly the FDA tightened up its conflict of interest rules after this debacle but how clean it presently is, is anyone's guess. Bush Vs. Obama FDA Have things changed much during Mr. Obama's presidency since Evelyn Pringle, a columnist for OpEd News and investigative journalist referred to "crooks in the current Bush Administration's FDA":
More On FDA's Impartiality The more I look the more information I find on allegations of impartiality. As an investor this worries me. I expect the referee, the judge to be fair. But I read disturbing allegations that it has not always been fair. Dan Berger and Mike Adams in a satire piece compared US to China (I saw the cartoon on Horowitz's page):
Dr. Leonard G. Horowitz, author and ex-Chief Professional Advisor for Henry Schein, Inc (HSIC) in a disturbing piece makes a number of allegations such as:
As a retail investor, I am indeed concerned. In another disturbing allegation, Consumers for Dental Choice, wrote a letter to U.S. Senate Finance Committee:
In light of this background -- a less than perfect FDA and hedge funds and lobbyists who try to influence the FDA -- it is extremely important for the Adcom members and the FDA to stick to science and not let the type of disaster that occurred with Dendreon happen with Arena. Unfortunately, in 21st century, in the most modern country in the world, we still need to worry whether the government will side with science, or what Cramer calls "fiction." Cartoon courtesy of Dan Berger and Mike Adams.
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