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Msg  301243 of 369091  at  9/21/2009 7:39:23 PM  by

fordwill1953

 In response to msg 301235 by  1045
ignore topicview thread ,  thread start

Re: analyst day 1045 -- factors to consider in the days ahead.

I hate to remind all of us that it is a matter of perspective. If DNDN had been at $50 a share and had gotten trounced and driven down to $29.47, we'd all be talking about how unlikely it is to be going further down and that now that the pps is stable, let's all jump in.

This is NOT to pick on you in particular or anyone. It is what I call emotionally driven investing, the kind of investing that tends to make choices based upon popularity and the group voice rather than the hard nuts and bolts of due diligence. This is not a pep talk. This is merely a few factors to put into your decision making process.

1. Dendreon owns 100% of the rights to Provenge, Neuvenge, Trp8, and all the patents underneath the technology platform. Analysis: This is extremely rare for a biotech company to get this far without a partner. Extremely rare for the common shareholders to have such little dilution to worry about. If DNDN hits a homerun, the shareholders will run the bases and NO ONE ELSE. Not sharing value is an amazing opportunity for us shareholders.

2. Dendreon has over $220 million dollars in cash or near cash on its balance sheet. Their top financial expert, Greg Schiffman, is an experienced biotech street fighter that has proven over and over again that he's the right man in the right position. Dendreon needs no other help at this point, yet he has completed strategic alliances with Deutche Bank and JP Morgan, two of the best financial companies in the world. This is real value.

3. The raw data is now in house and the 360th event that is part of the Impact trial is about to be released. Our board stat guys are very supportive of Management's data analysis so far and they are not afraid of this data being released. In fact, some here believe the data will be so strong that the basic log test might significantly improved upon and that they expect a quick turnaround on the amended BLA. This offers us strong value.

4. The CEO is now fully experienced with the BLA process and seems quite at ease with the process now. Mitch Gold is showing a veteran's confidence as he meets with key analysts. Having a confident management team, an experienced management is a strong value.

5. Dendreon Management is so confident of their numbers and their process that they are having an analysts day where they will show another level of mastery. Companies that are scared of the future do NOT open their komonos. They act extremely cautious and hunker down. Instead, DNDN is hiring staff, training staff, building out it's plant in NJ... This in a word is confident. This gives me confidence in the organization which is a strong value.

6. The Dendreon capitalization has moved into the $2.5 billion level which signifies that it is no longer an R&D shop. Dendreon has attracted very large investment funds as a result of having excellent raw data released on April 28, 2009. The street is now by and large behind the company and no longer staying away. This is a demonstrated strong value.

7. The FDA despite the many months of being vilified on this board is still responsible to the members of Congress that oversee the Department. Though this concept is quite controversial on this board, they still have to do their job. Dendreon's experience with the prior biologics application will help to expedite the handling. Dr. David Urdahl and Dr. Mark Frohlich are excellent leaders and experts in their fields. The amended BLA is in great hands and I expect an excellent hand off to the FDA. The professionalism of DNDN is a strong value.

8. The many months of manipulation that were part of Mark Mitchell's Deep Capture expose that involved DNDN are fortunately, history. Again this is a controversial point. The likelihood of a major confrontation between the individuals of the past that promoted manipulation to destroy DNDN's chances and the many large funds now invested in DNDN is remote. As DNDN gains price per share and ever greater ownership by the Fidelities and the Vanguards of the world the less the pirates of the world will want to engage DNDN as a vehicle to riches. As they say, if you can beat them, join them. I'm personally confident that most of the past manipulators have taken long positions for the time being. Having a widespread ownership of Dendreon shares is a strong value.

9. I see the $30s a share as no different than the $20s. It does mean that I have to come up with much more serious money to be able to grab a 1000 shares at a time. This does require timing and patience. I would not recommend to people to wait for the low $20s to buy, rather, buy on dips... but those dips will probably be higher and higher from here. Being on this anticipatory step before a significant run up is a strong value.

10. I wish everyone luck. This is going to be a challenging week.


 
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Recs: 141  |  Views: 2167
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Replies
Msg # Subject Author Recs Date Posted
301246 Re: analyst day 1045 -- factors to consider in the days ahead. tarado96 15 9/21/2009 7:50:21 PM
301248 Re: analyst day 1045 -- factors to consider in the days ahead. embraceyourinnerhillbilly 2 9/21/2009 8:19:37 PM
301251 Re: analyst day 1045 -- factors to consider in the days ahead/Ford scotbos 2 9/21/2009 9:02:41 PM
301255 Re: analyst day 1045 -- factors to consider in the days ahead. hemomiracle 5 9/21/2009 9:49:13 PM
301411 Dendreon is at hand prufrock 141 9/22/2009 1:33:29 PM
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