This evening, I've been thinking about the situation we find ourselves in. There are a number of very bullish and very positive things going for us right now:
- On May 18th (Monday), the FDA must, by law, respond to the CareToLive Citizen's petition.
- It has been reported by actionjack that Dendreon management will be meeting with JP Morgan on Monday, too.
- Tons of May options will be expiring tomorrow (just prior to Monday).
- Next week, Dendreon has the Deutsche Bank Securities 34th Annual Health Care Conference (Tuesday) followed by the Leerink Swann Novel Cancer Thereapeutics: Oncology Roundtable (Wednesday). Next week they are pretty booked (again, especially if there is any truth to what actionjack reported).
- The posting of 82 Jobs seems a bit odd if they aren't expecting to resubmit their BLA until later on in the year, followed by potential approval next year. That's a lot of jobs.
- Obviously the results from the IMPACT trial are phenomenal and blow away the standard of crap care, Taxotere. The FDA no longer has an excuse to keep Provenge off market due to doubts regarding efficacy or safety.
- Dendreon has been given the green light by the FDA to allow the placebo patients to crossover to Provenge. Casey says they were given this green light last year, however, the only thing relevant is that they were given it. The FDA wouldn't have allowed them to do this if they doubted Provenge's efficacy or safety.
- Any future court hearings are in CareToLive's favor now that the data is ripe and statistically significant.
- Gold has publicly stated that they are now actively seeking a ROW partner to commercialize Provenge overseas.
- The secondary at $19.20 for 10,700,000 shares was certainly bullish. Even more bullish, however, is the fact that Deutsche Bank exercised the over-allotment option to purchase an additional 1,279,166 shares.
- Dendreon now has enough money to commercialize Provenge in the United States and reignite the pipeline ($221 million +); the threat of a secondary is over and Dendreon is in very good financial condition.
- Since the last short interest update, the shorts have covered roughly 42% since the previous numbers. That brings short interest, as of April 28th or April 29th, to roughly 12 million shares - much lower than before.
- TA looks very bullish.
- We have much more favorable coverage from analysts now. Some of the biggest doubters of Provenge are now huge supporters - hopping on the train just before it leaves the station.
- 2010 options are opened out to $65.00. 2011 options are opened out to $75.00.
My fingers hurt! I may have left a few things out, too, but you get the picture.
Also, I have a theory on why Gold and Dendreon management sold shares/options on the 29th-30th of April: perhaps they had a good idea that approval/ROW would be coming very soon, and so, to protect themselves from the SEC, they took some off the table at lower prices. Also, doesn't Dendreon management get awarded a whole bunch more options once Provenge is approved? So, what does it matter if they are selling now? They will just get a whole bunch more options in the near and distant future. These guys are literally sitting on a Gold mine (just like us, on a smaller scale of course).
Take home message: If you're short this stock over the weekend and coming months, you're asking for a world of pain.
GLTA!
