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4/27 VHC Options Look-See // Mangrove IPR Appeals Delay Keeps the Pressure OnPardon the blank post, but it turns out I didn't close the preview window before posting, hence a blank post. Here's the entire post, reprinted: -------------------------------------------------------------------------- [For some reason I have lost use of the Rich Text 2.0 editor. I am paid up thru Sept. Can someone send me a PM with an idea on how to fix this? Thanks] With the pressure cooker still simmering, today's CAFC decision certainly doesn't hurt VHC's stock, which may turn up the burner under said pot, increasing the shorts' angst. Or...the shorts are properly covered every which way and they aren't sweating a thing. Your call. (I have no info one way or the other). So did anything interesting happen today. When you look at the data (yesterday's in ()): Price Movement: +$0.00 (+$0.00) <--- 10th consecutive increase or flat days Price Movement %: 0.0% (0.0%) Price Range: $3.30 - $3.45 ($3.20 - $3.45) Price Range Width: $0.15 ($0.25) Share volume: 454K (358K) shares Option Volume: 671 (1394) contracts Call Volume: 628 (986) contracts Put Volume: 43 (408) contracts IV: 171% (187%) ...two things stand out for me. First, a higher low of $3.30, with the same high as $3.45, showing the range is tightening as investors aren't yet ready to sell their shares. Not until the fat lady (judge) sings. So we have a situation where folks don't want to sell and they aren't willing to pay more than $3.45 for new shares. Until the ruling, then one might say we have a state of equilibrium. The second item that stood out is how much the option volume has been decreasing over the last few sessions. This too shows that investors have filled up on their preferred options and are now in wait mode. Two scenarios, then: 1) Judge decides tomorrow (or afterhours): When the pressure valve is released, how high will the stew fly? Previous examples suggest $5-$5.50 as a top, but that assumes the order contains nothing unexpectedly good for VHC. 2) Judge still hasn't decided by Monday: How many investors will wait...and how many will take their profits and run? In this case, it would seem some sort of fallback in the pps would occur. As far as today's trades go, these caught my eye: Buys: 1) 95 Jun Call 3's bought at $0.95 ($9025) 2) 98 May Call 3's bought at $0.75 ($7350) Hedges/Sells 3) 50 Sep Call 3's sold for $1.20 ($6000) 4) 50 Sep Call 3's sold for $1.20 ($6000) Let the fun begin! Cheers. |
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