First off it is James Spear, there is no s at the end of his name. James Spear was an employee of HDY. Whether marc.gerade is actually James Spear, well you have to believe what he posts on the Yahoo message board. And he certainly posts a lot, everyday, all day and night as well. And you are correct, he was enamored with the offshore geological potential when he was employed at HDY but not now as an ex employee
I am not a good Samaritan to others, nor do I profess to provide investment advice. I simply provide my insights into my interpretation of the data as presented by HDYN, based on over 35 years as an exploration geologist.
My view, and it is strictly my view, is a COS as low as 30% in not reasonable given the paucity of data available offshore Guinea, coupled with the regional data in the close-in surrounding countries and the success, or somewhat lack of success, in recent years. The lack of success appears to be mostly due to a frequent failure of up dip seal in sealing turbidite sands, the same sands being played in Fatala. This seal worked at Jubilee and TEN but many other wells have failed to encounter a trap with an effective up dip seal. An overall risk of 30%, when applying a reasonable risk factor for seal, would require very high values for the other trap components (reservoir, source, geometry) and these are not supported by the available offset data. Sorry but I disagree with NSAI, this is not how I would estimate the COS.