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Msg  232 of 377  at  3/9/2012 11:03:16 AM  by

terryhallinan


 In response to msg 231 by  asail1492
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Re: BANZAI!

 Hi Assail,
 
Yeah but look at the control arm. 40 something percent resolution of lineages. 
Seems like there may be something here, but not a knockout yet.
 
For sure it's an early trial with a very small number of volunteers.
 
The first thing to understand is that a Phase I trial is a test of safety with any indication of efficacy a bonus.  As a Phase I/II trial, we have the classic dose-ranging trial built on the Phase I.
 
Of course there is no guarantee that a more potent dose will be more effective or that side effects may not even end all experimentation entirely.
 
What we do know is that the small control arm had results within the range that epidemiological data predicted and the treatment arm did somewhat better.  Left unstated is that this is a vaccine that has the possibility of preventing further difficulty.
 
I would advise anyone who can to talk to any woman who has had surgery or even some greater scrutiny after first finding of abnormalities.  Think they would like to chance a vaccine that offers some hope of avoiding the pain?  Bet any would jump at the chance.
 
All JMO.  I have no argument at all with your main thesis.   Just a difference in emphasis.
 
There is a reason why Phase II is where the most money is made if the trials are successful.  They are the ones with highest dropout rate.
 
Best,  Terry


 
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