Let me show the data for dividend cutting MCC to illustrate the predictive nature of the "div/NAV to the portfolio weighted average yield" signal. Rec this post if you see the signal. The warning is in blue italics and the div cut is highlighted. You do not have to believe the signal has meaning to give a rec that you 'see' the signal.
I sold my shares in MCC when NAV growth stopped. I manage money for an 88 year old uncle. I kept his shares in MCC because I failed to see a cut coming. NII/share was covering the dividend . . . until it did not. MCC was the case that caused me to look for more danger signals. I will concede that the lead time to MCC's danger signal too dang short - but it was there. The data:
| 2010 | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 |
Co. | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 |
MCC |
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Div | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.21 | 0.25 | 0.28 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.30 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
NII/share | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.24 | 0.27 | 0.31 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.39 | 0.36 | 0.37 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 0.38 | 0.41 | 0.37 | 0.35 | 0.30 | 0.30 |
NAV | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 12.48 | 12.57 | 12.55 | 12.57 | 12.63 | 12.60 | 12.60 | 12.69 | 12.73 | 12.73 | 12.70 | 12.68 | 12.69 | 12.65 | 12.43 | 11.74 | 11.68 | 11.53 |
Div/NAV | na | na | na | na | na | 5.1 | 6.7 | 8.0 | 8.9 | 9.8 | 11.4 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.3 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.7 | 11.9 | 12.6 | 10.3 | 10.4 |
WtAvYld |
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| 13.5 | 13.4 | 12.6 | 12.5 | 12.6 | 12.4 |