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Health Care / Pharma data posted at SA (some BDC data in this message) The following is a text based computer generated output I sometime include in my BDC stat updates - and this data is from 9-30-14 The Predictive Power of the EPS/Dividend Ratios on Valuations: Dividend to EPS ratios [for dividend paying BDCs] range from as low as the 80s to 140s [at 5-27-14] and may look all too random. But this ratio - during most time periods - helps explain the variety of yields, price to book ratios, and price to NII ratios. There is some correlation to YTD price changes as well. This first test is done for BDCs with weighted average portfolio yields of more than 10% in Q2-14. The stats are from Q2-14 and use 2014 EPS projections.. Lower risk BDCs have their metrics shown separately. The following dividend paying BDCs had Q2-14 Dividend/EPS ratios of less than 95%: AINV , FDUS , GAIN , MAIN , MCC . Their YTD mean price gain = -12.10% and 2 of the 5 beat the sector mean yearly price gain [-8.85%]. Their mean yield = 9.33% and they sold at an average price/book ratio = 1.05 and an average price/nii ratio = 10.18. The following BDCs had Q2-14 Dividend/EPS ratios of more than 95% - but less than 100%: FSC , GLAD , NMFC , TCAP , TCRD . Their YTD mean price gain = -8.33% and 4 of the 5 beat the sector mean yearly price gain [-8.85%]. Their mean yield = 9.76% - and they sold at an average price/book ratio = 1.10 and an average price/nii ratio = 10.05. The following companies had Q3-14 Dividend/EPS ratios of more than 100% but had 2015 Dividend/EPS ratios under 100%: ARCC , BKCC , HRZN , HTGC , PNNT , SLRC . Their YTD mean price gain = -9.62% and 3 of the 6 beat the sector mean yearly price gain [-8.85%]. Their mean yield = 9.48% - and they sold at an average price/book ratio of 1.00 and an average price/nii ratio of 11.23. The following companies had Q3-14 Dividend/EPS ratios of more than 100% and 2015 Dividend/EPS ratios of more than 100%: FULL , KCAP , NGPC , PSEC , TICC . Their YTD mean price gain = -9.98% and 1 of the 5 beat the sector mean yearly price gain [-8.85%]. Their mean yield = 12.30% - and they sold at an average price/book ratio of 0.93 and an average price/nii ratio of 9.63. The BDCs that had weighted average portfolio yields of less than 10% [the second test] : ACAS , GBDC , KED , PFLT , SUNS , TAXI . Their YTD mean price gain = -4.88% and 2 of the 6 beat the sector mean yearly price gain [-8.85%] Their mean yield = 6.48% - and they sold at an average price/book ratio = 0.94 and an average price/nii ratio = 14.50. The importance of the dividend/earnings ratios is something I track in almost every sector where I track data. This ratio is always important. I have included tracking on that ratio in my Health Care / Pharma update posted at my Seeking Alpha Insta Blog - the link is http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/975609-factoids/3329465-health-care-pharma-stocks-10minus-03 |
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