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Doing The Math-MPLX Distribution Going Forward As Projected By MPLX ManagementWhat has happened so far to get to the current starting point. 1)In 2016 MPLX paid a total of $2.05 cash to unitholders in 4 quarterly payments a) May 2016 -1st quarter- $0.505 b) Aug 2016 -2nd quarter- $0.51 c) Nov 2016 - 3rd quarter - $0.515 d) Feb 2017 -4th quarter 2016 - $0.52 2)Management has been guiding for Distributions to be increased 12% to 15% in 2017 and a further double digit increase in 2018 (That appears to me to be 10% increase in 2018) 3) A 12% increase in 2017 would require an increase from $2.05 to $2.296 4) A 15% increase in 2017 would require an increase from $2.05 to $2.3575 5) Management recently declared a !st quarter 2017 distribution of $0.54 and also announced a coverage ratio of 1.29X 6) the 1.29X coverage = $0.6966 for the first quarter of 2017. 7) IF the 1.29X coverage can be maintained at or about that level for 2017 management would have no trouble reaching the 12% or 15% or even higher if they choose to do so. With the $0.02 increase to the $0.54 distribution for 1st quarter 2017 they are signally they are on target for the 12% increase for the year--To reach the 12% goal of $2.295 for 2017 in an orderly fashion would require payments of $0.54-$0.56-$0.585- and $0.61=$2.295 To reach the 15% goal would require something like $0.54- $0.57- $0.6075- $0.64 = $2.3575 b&w |
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