My sector average stats are not cap weighted while the stats for the AMZ and the EFT AMJ are cap weighted. There are very few MLPs with superior performance - and they are small caps. So it is logical that my sector average stats are higher than a cap weighted sector average.
There is DCF projection volatility. That is not news. There is DCF projection volatility in places where it was not expected - and that is news. There are wide spreads in the DCF projections - and some wide spreads in places where they are not expected. Those familiar with my writings should be able to decode what that means.
I am still in the process of updating DCFs. I've put about 18 hours into the effort - and I am up to the S's in that process. I am also in the difficult process of updating my RRRs. If someone has data to assist in that effort (specifically the 'discount rates' used in target price calculation) - let me know via response to this message - or via PM.
You should not view the data without it causing questions. But some of you lack that skill to generate questions from the data. So I will provide some:
If I were to ask you to explain OKS' yield - should I ask why it is so high - or so low?
Is there anything in the data that would suggest that June is a good time to buy?
Does that data provide answers to why MMLP has done so well in 2015?
Does the data provide an answer to why KMI out performed EPD?
Good luck with your quiz (and no - I am not expecting posted replies to this). It is my hope that some of you would have asked better questions. And now, here is the data:
MLP Midstream 5-28-15
The consensus DCF (Distributable Cash Flow) projections were last updated on 5-28-15. The CAGR (the distribution Compound Annual Growth Rate) projections were updated 3-31-15 (meaning they are very stale now).
Yields are based on the Q2-15 distribution. Under the 'year to date' header,
the change in the distribution is the change since Q2-14 - or the change over the last twelve months. The change in the target, EPS and DCF is the percentage change in the consensus 2015 projection that has happened since the beginning of 2015. The Dist/DCF number is the ratio of the Q2-15 distribution to the 2015 DCF projection. The 2015 DCF projection is an adjusted average of eleven DCF projections from the major brokerages covering MLPs. The CAGR is the percentage change in my CAGR projection since the beginning of the year. The target prices and EPS projections are from Yahoo Finance. RGP has merged with ETP and that ticker has yet to be deleted.
|
Company |
| Current | Distrib/ | Q2 Dist | Dist/dcf | Dist/dcf | Year-to-Date Percent Change |
|
| Price | Quarter | Yield | 2015 | 2016 | Price | Pr+Dist | EPS | Target | DCF | Dist* | cagr |
|
American Midstream Partners, LP | (AMID) | 18.03 | 0.4725 | 10.48 | 103.28 | 92.20 | -8.52 | -3.73 | -59.88 | -31.61 | -16.06 | 2.16 | 0.00 |
Blueknight Energy Partners, L.P. | (BKEP) | 7.90 | 0.1365 | 6.91 | 64.24 | 66.59 | 18.80 | 22.90 | -35.71 | 4.47 | 26.87 | 5.00 | 0.00 |
Buckeye Partners, L.P. | (BPL) | 78.08 | 1.1395 | 5.84 | 93.02 | 82.72 | 3.20 | 6.21 | -1.58 | 1.32 | -0.41 | 3.59 | 0.00 |
Boardwalk Pipeline Partners, LP | (BWP) | 16.03 | 0.1000 | 2.50 | 23.81 | 21.86 | -9.79 | -8.67 | -17.48 | 0.00 | -5.62 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Crestwood Midstream Partners LP | (CMLP) | 13.01 | 0.4100 | 12.61 | 99.39 | 97.04 | -14.30 | -8.89 | -89.80 | -24.86 | -6.78 | 0.00 | -60.00 |
DCP Midstream Partners LP | (DPM) | 38.09 | 0.7800 | 8.19 | 90.43 | 93.13 | -16.16 | -12.72 | -15.06 | -21.46 | 1.47 | 4.70 | -11.11 |
Enable Midstream Partners | (ENBL) | 17.36 | 0.3125 | 7.20 | 89.93 | 85.03 | -10.47 | -7.25 | -23.39 | -25.17 | -12.58 | 27.03 | -40.00 |
Enbridge Energy Partners, L.P. | (EEP) | 37.27 | 0.5700 | 6.12 | 106.54 | 98.70 | -6.59 | -3.73 | -24.82 | 1.71 | -3.17 | 4.88 | 0.00 |
EnLink Midstream Partners, LP | (ENLK) | 24.81 | 0.3800 | 6.13 | 93.25 | 77.95 | -14.48 | -11.86 | -43.96 | -2.02 | -12.37 | 5.56 | 0.00 |
Enterprise Products Partners L.P. | (EPD) | 32.70 | 0.3750 | 4.59 | 73.17 | 68.81 | -9.47 | -7.39 | -16.15 | -5.45 | -5.96 | 5.63 | -10.77 |
Energy Transfer Partners, L.P. | (ETP) | 56.55 | 1.0150 | 7.18 | 78.83 | 77.78 | -13.00 | -9.88 | -42.36 | -5.77 | 6.19 | 8.56 | 15.38 |
EQT Midstream Partners, LP | (EQM) | 83.67 | 0.6100 | 2.92 | 58.10 | 51.80 | -4.92 | -3.53 | 2.84 | 2.14 | -1.64 | 24.49 | 0.00 |
Exterran Partners, L.P. | (EXLP) | 26.40 | 0.5625 | 8.52 | 83.33 | 83.64 | 22.11 | 27.31 | -17.91 | -8.69 | 3.85 | 4.65 | 0.00 |
Genesis Energy LP | (GEL) | 48.75 | 0.5950 | 4.88 | 83.51 | 77.52 | 14.92 | 17.73 | -28.04 | -2.17 | -5.94 | 8.18 | 0.00 |
Holly Energy Partners L.P. | (HEP) | 33.61 | 0.5375 | 6.40 | 90.34 | 83.33 | 12.37 | 15.96 | 4.14 | 0.58 | -0.42 | 5.91 | -10.00 |
Kinder Morgan, Inc | (KMI) | 41.62 | 0.4800 | 4.61 | 85.33 | 79.01 | -1.63 | 0.64 | -29.06 | 2.25 | 10.84 | 14.29 | 11.76 |
Midcoast Energy Partners, L.P. | (MEP) | 12.42 | 0.3425 | 11.03 | 88.39 | 83.03 | -9.21 | -4.20 | -56.52 | -10.90 | -3.73 | 9.42 | 10.00 |
Martin Midstream Partners LP | (MMLP) | 34.15 | 0.8125 | 9.52 | 97.01 | 96.73 | 27.05 | 33.09 | -25.42 | -6.39 | -12.76 | 3.17 | 20.00 |
Magellan Midstream Partners LP | (MMP) | 80.76 | 0.7175 | 3.55 | 75.13 | 68.82 | -2.30 | -0.56 | -9.17 | 0.18 | -2.05 | 17.14 | 0.00 |
MPLX or Marathon LP | (MPLX) | 72.55 | 0.4100 | 2.26 | 60.29 | 49.40 | -1.28 | -0.16 | 1.29 | 12.83 | 32.68 | 25.19 | 0.00 |
MarkWest Energy Partners, L.P. | (MWE) | 64.45 | 0.9100 | 5.65 | 96.55 | 86.46 | -4.08 | -1.37 | -53.71 | 4.80 | -10.02 | 4.60 | 5.00 |
Targa Resources Partners LP | (NGLS) | 43.36 | 0.8200 | 7.56 | 84.97 | 79.23 | -9.44 | -6.02 | -66.10 | -23.55 | -15.54 | 7.54 | 0.00 |
NuStar Energy L.P. | (NS) | 63.04 | 1.0950 | 6.95 | 93.19 | 87.60 | 9.16 | 12.95 | 37.05 | 5.87 | 2.84 | 0.00 | 36.36 |
Oneok Partners, L.P. | (OKS) | 39.41 | 0.7900 | 8.02 | 113.67 | 98.75 | -0.56 | 3.43 | -36.74 | -20.89 | -16.27 | 6.04 | 0.00 |
Plains All American Pipeline, L.P. | (PAA) | 47.05 | 0.6850 | 5.82 | 94.81 | 86.16 | -8.32 | -5.65 | -20.75 | -6.57 | -5.56 | 8.73 | 0.00 |
Phillips 66 Partners L.P. | (PSXP) | 72.28 | 0.3700 | 2.05 | 68.84 | 51.93 | 4.86 | 5.93 | -28.30 | 10.29 | -2.27 | 35.04 | 0.00 |
Regency Energy Partners LP | (RGP) | 23.47 | 0.5020 | 8.56 | 95.62 | 88.46 | -2.21 | 1.98 | -12.00 | -9.16 | -2.33 | 4.58 | 0.00 |
Spectra Energy Partners, LP | (SEP) | 50.83 | 0.5887 | 4.63 | 83.21 | 83.21 | -10.78 | -8.71 | 6.09 | 3.65 | -0.35 | 5.82 | 0.00 |
Sunoco Logistics Partners L.P. | (SXL) | 39.69 | 0.4190 | 4.22 | 67.85 | 63.73 | -5.00 | -3.00 | -13.87 | -5.35 | 0.82 | 20.58 | 2.22 |
TC PipeLines, LP | (TCP) | 65.39 | 0.8400 | 5.14 | 83.17 | 74.67 | -8.19 | -5.83 | 6.42 | 1.48 | -1.94 | 3.70 | 0.00 |
Tesoro Logistics LP | (TLLP) | 57.21 | 0.6950 | 4.86 | 72.40 | 67.80 | -2.79 | -0.42 | 10.28 | -1.43 | 8.78 | 17.80 | 0.00 |
Transmontaigne Partners L.P. | (TLP) | 38.69 | 0.6650 | 6.88 | 75.14 | 73.68 | 22.79 | 27.01 | -7.23 | -5.06 | 4.12 | 0.76 | 0.00 |
Valero Energy Partners LP | (VLP) | 50.91 | 0.2770 | 2.18 | 48.60 | 38.34 | 20.70 | 22.01 | 27.91 | 15.99 | 34.12 | 30.05 | 0.00 |
Western Gas Partners LP | (WES) | 68.75 | 0.7250 | 4.22 | 84.80 | 72.50 | -5.89 | -3.90 | -37.66 | -0.60 | -4.47 | 16.00 | 0.00 |
Western Refining Logistics | (WNRL) | 29.53 | 0.3330 | 4.51 | 69.38 | 53.71 | -3.18 | -1.00 | -5.59 | 2.76 | -1.54 | 11.74 | 0.00 |
Williams Partners L.P. | (WPZ) | 56.04 | 0.8500 | 6.07 | 100.59 | 85.00 | 3.39 | 6.53 | -68.20 | 6.63 | -11.75 | 56.86 | -27.78 |
|
Pipeline Average |
|
| 6.08 | 82.50 | 75.73 | -0.64 | 2.37 | -21.96 | -3.89 | 8.17 | 11.37 |
|
Shipping |
|
Golar LNG Partners LP | (GMLP) | 27.50 | 0.5770 | 8.39 | 114.83 | 115.40 | -11.72 | -8.01 | -0.74 | -1.20 | -25.56 | 10.33 | -26.67 |
Navios Maritime Partners L.P. | (NMM) | 10.77 | 0.4425 | 16.43 | 97.79 | 90.77 | 5.90 | 14.60 | -29.17 | -20.90 | -1.09 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
Teekay LNG Partners LP. | (TGP) | 35.40 | 0.7000 | 7.91 | 89.46 | 83.58 | -17.67 | -14.42 | -12.09 | -5.09 | -3.10 | 1.19 | -33.33 |
Teekay Offshore Partners LP. | (TOO) | 22.81 | 0.5384 | 9.44 | 84.13 | 78.60 | -14.86 | -10.84 | -9.76 | -35.56 | 7.11 | 0.07 | -12.50 |
|
Shipping Average |
|
| 10.54 | 95.85 |
| -9.59 | -4.67 | -12.94 | -15.69 |
|
|
|
MidStream Average |
| 6.69 | 93.23 | 85.96 | -1.58 | 1.71 | -21.59 | -5.20 |
|
|
|
The (price change only) Alerian MLP index [the ^AMZ - which includes other MLP sectors] is -5.40% year to date. |
The Alerian MLP index ETN AMJ is -5.53% and with dividends is -3.03%. |
The S&P500 index ETF SPY is 3.37% and with dividends is 3.82%. |
The Russell 2000 index ETF IWM is 4.20% and with dividend is 4.52%. |
With the 10yr Treasury @ 2.14% & the sector average yield [on Q2 distrib's] at 6.69% - the spread is 455 bps. |
With the JNK yielding 5.70% - spread to the Lehman U.S. High Yield Index is 99 bps. |
With the HYG yielding 5.13% - the spread to the iBOXX High Yield Index is 156 bps. |
|
Historical MLP Month-End Yields:
Jan 05: 5.97% | Feb: 6.10% | Mar: 6.07% | April: 6.15% | May: 6.16% | June: 6.03% |
July 05: 5.87% | Aug: 6.10% | Sept: 6.07% | Oct : 6.45% | Nov: 6.79% | Dec: 6.92% |
Jan 06: 6.56% | Feb: 6.68% | Mar: 6.56% | April: 6.68% | May: 6.76% | June: 6.82% |
July 06: 6.61% | Aug: 6.65% | Sept: 6.70% | Oct : 6.58% | Nov: 6.44% | Dec: 6.28% |
Jan 07: 6.05% | Feb: 5.96% | Mar: 5.77% | April: 5.54% | May: 5.54% | June: 5.43% |
|
July 07: 5.44% | Aug: 6.05% | Sept: 6.26% | Oct : 6.20% | Nov: 6.64% | Dec: 6.70% |
Jan 08: 6.79% | Feb: 6.79% | Mar: 7.43% | April: 7.08% | May: 7.44% | June: 7.56% |
July 08: 8.16% | Aug: 8.45% | Sept: 10.76% | Oct : 11.73% | Nov: 16.53% | Dec: 19.50% |
Jan 09: 14.76% | Feb: 14.54% | Mar: 13.90% | April: 14.66% | May: 9.80% | June: 9.59% |
July 09: 8.39% | Aug: 8.61% | Sept: 7.96% | Oct : 7.84% | Nov: 7.62% | Dec: 7.13% |
Jan 10: 6.64% | Feb: 6.50% | Mar: 6.34% | April: 6.23% | May: 6.71% | June: 6.27% |
July 10: 5.85% | Aug: 6.14% | Sept: 5.89% | Oct : 6.14%1 | Nov: 6.00% | Dec: 5.79% |
Jan 11: 5.87% | Feb: 5.62% | Mar: 5.65% | April: 5.59% | May: 5.95% | June: 5.90% |
July 11: 6.21% | Aug: 6.73% | Sept: 7.10%2 | Oct : 6.51% | Nov: 6.80% | Dec: 6.45% |
Jan 12: 6.45% | Feb: 6.43% | Mar: 6.43% | April: 6.42% | May: 7.26% | June: 7.06% |
July 12: 6.81% | Aug: 6.87% | Sept: 6.75% | Oct : 6.79% | Nov: 7.08% | Dec: 7.31% |
Jan 13: x.xx% | Feb: x.xx% | Mar: x.xx% | April: x.xx% | May: x.xx% | June: 6.14% |
July 13: 6.18% | Aug: 6.51% | Sept: 6.39% | Oct : 6.34% | Nov: 6.21% | Dec: 5.77%3 |
Jan 14: 5.92% | Feb: 5.84% | Mar: 5.69% | April: 5.64% | May: 5.48% | June: 5.24% |
July 14: 5.50% | Aug: 5.20% | Sept: 5.28% | Oct : | Nov: | Dec: 6.49%4 |
Jan 15: 6.75% | Feb: 6.47%5 | Mar: 6.72% | April: 6.35% | May: | June: |
|
1 The increase in month end yields occurring in the October 2010 stats was mainly due to APL and XTEX re-starting distributions, and not due to a decrease in unit prices. The same cause increased the MLP to ten year treasury spread.
2 The deletion of low yielding DEP from the data base added 7 bps to the sector average yield.
3 The deletion of high yielding EROC combined with the addition of low yielding EQM, OILT and TLLP to the coverage universe subtracted about 20 bps to the sector average yield.
4 The deletion of EPB and KMP combined with the addition of ENBL, KMI, MEP, MLPX and TOO to the coverage universe added 1 bps to the sector average yield.
5 The deletion of APL and OILT combined with the addition of PSXP, VLP, WNRL and GMLP to the coverage universe subtracted 7 bps to the sector average yield.
Historical MLP to 10 Year Treasury Spreads:
Jan 05: 178 | Feb: 152 | Mar: 156 | April: 195 | May: 216 | June: 211 |
July 05: 159 | Aug: 208 | Sept: 174 | Oct : 177 | Nov: 230 | Dec: 252 |
Jan 06: 206 | Feb: 213 | Mar: 171 | April: 161 | May: 164 | June: 167 |
July 06: 161 | Aug: 192 | Sept: 206 | Oct : 198 | Nov: 198 | Dec: 158 |
Jan 07: 123 | Feb: 138 | Mar: 122 | April: 89 | May: 65 | June: 40 |
July 07: 71 | Aug: 152 | Sept: 167 | Oct : 172 | Nov: 269 | Dec: 267 |
Jan 08: 319 | Feb: 327 | Mar: 401 | April: 335 | May: 338 | June: 358 |
July 08: 420 | Aug: 463 | Sept: 694 | Oct : 801 | Nov: 1360 | Dec: 1728 |
Jan 09: 1191 | Feb: 1152 | Mar: 1294 | April: 1154 | May: 634 | June: 606 |
July 09: 491 | Aug: 551 | Sept: 488 | Oct : 485 | Nov: 443 | Dec: 329 |
Jan 10: 305 | Feb: 288 | Mar: 251 | April: 257 | May: 341 | June: 333 |
July 10: 294 | Aug: 367 | Sept: 337 | Oct : 354 | Nov: 321 | Dec: 250 |
Jan 11: 250 | Feb: 224 | Mar: 219 | April: 230 | May: 289 | June: 273 |
July 11: 341 | Aug: 454 | Sept: 518 | Oct : 439 | Nov: 472 | Dec: 457 |
Jan 12: 457 | Feb: 421 | Mar: 421 | April: 450 | May: 570 | June: 546 |
July 12: 534 | Aug: 531 | Sept: 511 | Oct : 510 | Nov: 546 | Dec: 555 |
Jan 13: | Feb: | Mar: | April: | May: | June: 366 |
July 13: 360 | Aug: 373 | Sept: 378 | Oct : 379 | Nov: 347 | Dec: 274 |
Jan 14: 327 | Feb: 319 | Mar: 304 | April: 299 | May: 300 | June: 272 |
July 14: 299 | Aug: 286 | Sept: 279 | Oct : | Nov: | Dec: 432 |
Jan 14: 501 | Feb: 448 | Mar: 480 | April: 432 | May: | June: |